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#1
08-11-2016, 01:16 PM
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Saratoga Thursday August 11th Late Pick Four
Race 7:
#3 How Frosty It Is: Liked this one on the AEs in the weak Aug 3rd nightcap because he had been working much better this year after having more time in the new barn. Didn't draw in and instead put up another bullet work. #7 Playthatfunnymusic: Had a rough go at the start on debut when taking money on the turf for a small outfit. Massive rider upgrade and has some speedy works...with a better start he could be the one to catch. #8 Third Son: Poor form but can make some excuses---turf, muddy/sealed, blinkers on. Two other runs in MSW company fit here. #1 Longisland Express: Full sib could handle the dirt and his lone try there wasn't bad. Jock upgrade. #2 is 1 for 19 in the ex and doesn't know how to gain lengths in the stretch. Use underneath but if he's gonna win it looks like he'll need to be the one to catch. #9 was my longshot play last time but will be much lower odds this time around and I think there are others in here worth a better look on the win line. Race 8: #5 Call Provision: Much the one to beat and will be odds-on to turn this sequence into a P3, but who knows how he handles bouncing back from finishing last, with the blinkers, or with a running style likely to be compromised by the lack of pace in here. Pays boxcars if he doesn't win. #8 Fulmer: Needed that one off the exteeeeeended layoff and has stamina on the bottom---the second dam is a half to Victory Gallop. Unexposed and has the potential to improve enough. #1 Ordinaire: Looms the wire to wire threat. Not sure if he really wants the 9.5f but if he backs it down enough anything is possible. #4 Par Race 9: #8 Free N Clear: Battled well at 7f against these and now gets his game with a two-turn route. Confidence is high off the win and has crucial tactical speed. #4 Lady Lucky: Bred for a turf route and showed she was capable of that last year when hampered by some slow fractions after tough beginnings. Doesn't have the speed to go 1:07 flat and given no chance when last off a 47.1 half for 7f last out. Would have taken a shot with her on top but Cannizzo is 0/31 with 8 ITM in all routes at SAR in the past 5 years. #10 Ametrine: Was rallying as the beaten fav with #6 in the Stakes try and ran into traffic while that foe didn't. Donk doesn't have a great record stretching them out for the first time on turf but looms a large overlay. #2 Highway Star Race 10: #10 Seize: Winner of the last came back to run a great 2nd in the Quick Call. Speedster should appreciate the half furlong less. #9 River Echo: Probably wasn't going to win on NA debut but only really got racing room after being shoved out numerous paths. Worth another try. #1 Consumerconfidence: Showed sprint speed when running the last 5.5f in 1:03 on debut after a tortoise start. #4 Silent Mission $0.60 Late Pick Four Race 7: 1, 3, 7, 8 Race 8: 1, 5, 8 Race 9: 2, 4, 8, 10 Race 10: 1, 9, 10 $86.40 Good luck! 
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