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#1
09-21-2016, 08:20 PM
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THURS - Churchill Downs (R1-R8)
Churchill Downs kicks off the week with a solid card that starts with high quaility fillies lined up. Two filly turf maiden races offer great betting opportunites. In addition, .20 Jackpot PK6 rolls in at $20k.
Churchill Downs POST SCRATCHES- FAST / FIRM R1 - OC 62k/N2X #2 Dream Dance (5-2) - I look for her to bounce back after dull effort in Indiana Oaks as Robby looks to keep her on a straight path. 3RD #1 Crown D'Oro (7-2) - Routing on the dirt seems to be her game. #6 Taxable (9-2) - Counting on the recent rest to due her some good and well bred filly still has plenty of upside. 4TH #3 Rosie My Rosie (5-1) - Experienced mare should be doing her best running late for a minor piece. R2 - Clm 7.5K #7 Love Your Humor (10-1) - Looking for the drop and stretchout to wake him up. #3 Jack's the Won (5-1) - Fits at this level and is familiar with this surface. #1 Ol Army (5-1) - Should flash some speed and is more than capable of taking this event on his return to the dirt. #2 Prado Dash (7-2) - Hard knocker took a simliar race during the spring meet. R3 - MSW 43k (Turf 2yo f 8F) #3 Wicked Licked (9-2) - She was really moving late in her debut after saving ground from an outside post. Inside draw should do the trick. WON $7.20 #8 My Sweet Stella (4-1) - Ran into some nice Turf fillies at Saratoga including division's best Coasted. Solid local work last week. 2ND #2 Susie's Daddy (9-2) - Always like to see youngsters not afraid to split horses and the extra real estate should help as well. 3RD #1 Ginza (8-1) - Adds lasix after not showing much at Ky Downs and the rail draw adds to the appeal. R4 - OC 62k/N2X #2 Whyruawesome (3-1) - Likes it here and should take advantage of his early speed. #3 Air Squadron (5-1) - I know he's kept nice company, but that 2 for 27 is a concern to swallow a short price. 2ND #1 Valiant City (7-2) - Back to his preferred surface and this guy always seems to bring it. WON $7.20 #7 Hat of Jacks (10-1) - Sharp works after being on the beach almost an entire year. Interesting. 3RD PK4 - 1 2 6 / 1 2 3 7 8 / 3 8 / 1 2 3 = $45 for $.50 R5 - Md 30k #2 Tresa's Dream (8-1) - 1ster makes sense for above avg debut barn that starts him $10k over the purchase price. 3RD #3 Tiz Da Biz (8-1) - Has to be considered on the drop from MSW. #8 Shamelessfi (10-1) - Foley is off to good start at the meet and don't discount on the drop. 4TH #5 Poised'n 'Ready (3-1) R6 - Clm 30k N2L #11 Bellatori (8-1) - Just one published recent work, but Barn knows how to get them ready off a freshening. #6 Queen's Princess (7-2) - 1st time for a tag and definitely fits on the numbers for Romans. WON $4.20 #10 Eurodevilwoman (5-1) - Missed by a length as the chalk in most recent at Ellis and looks to be in a good stalking position throughout. #9 Malibubu (6-1) - Expecting her to be competitive with the drop to the claiming ranks for McGee. 4TH R7 - OC 75k/N2L (2yo f 6F) #5 Vertical Oak (2-1) - When you blow away MSW company at Saratoga people take notice. Don't expect much of a price. 2ND #2 Like a Hurricane (8-1) - Got caught up in a speed duel and threw in the towel when last seen. Speedster. #1 Funny Holiday (8-1) - Like the fact she didn't have the cleanest trip and still managed to score at Ellis. 4TH #4 Jazzy Lady (5-1) - Her debut on a dry track was above average and she suprised at SAR to finish 2nd at 20-1 in a Turf sprint. R8 - MSW 43k (Turf 2yo f 8F) #5 Bahama Kitten (6-1) - Made up some ground in Turf sprint debut at Ellis, she should relish the two turns here. #4 Mare Irish Dancer (3-1) - Her experience should help her here along with the extra ground. #8 Freedom (7-2) - Expensive War Front colt makes debut with typical Asmussen not asking for much in the mornings. PK6 - 2 3 8 / 1 2 3 / 2 3 5 8 12 / 6 11 / 5 / 4 5 8 = $54 for $.20 PK5 - 1 2 3 7 / 2 3 5 8 12 / 6 11 / 4 5 8 = $60 for $.50 PK4 - 2 3 5 7 8 12 / 6 10 11 / 5 / 4 5 6 8 = $36 for $.50 Good Racing Luck
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Good jockeys don't need instructions and bad ones don't follow them Last edited by Bogey : 09-22-2016 at 08:25 PM. 
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#3
09-22-2016, 08:39 AM
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#4
09-22-2016, 10:48 AM
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 Nice write up Gus, but I know personally if I cant watch the races, I dont want to bet them.
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Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
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#6
09-22-2016, 11:28 AM
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Ya its a shame cause this looks like a decent Thursday card.
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#7
09-22-2016, 04:55 PM
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Good jockeys don't need instructions and bad ones don't follow them
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#8
09-22-2016, 05:49 PM
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Gus, hope you have some ideas for this weekend. On business in Louisville next week and flying in early for Saturday evening and probable Sunday afternoon cards at Churchill. Grade 1 Arabians Saturday night!
You had great selections in fall 2013 when I made maiden voyage to Keeneland. And like an idiot, I didn't play your Arlington selections on my first visit there in 2010. You nailed off the turf $1,100 Pick 4 that afternoon. Am I superstitious? Heck, no. You know your stuff! Many thanks again, Glen
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@wire2wirewin Turf Economist since 1974
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#9
09-22-2016, 06:02 PM
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Good jockeys don't need instructions and bad ones don't follow them
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Hybrid Mode
