3/11: Tampa Bay (7th-11th); Santa Anita (5th-11th)

[Kasept]

TAMPA BAY DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES (LINK)


7th: Columbia, 3yo, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Profiteer 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Tiz a Slam 3-1 5th
Best Value: #3 My Barley 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Holiday Stone 5-1 3rd
Super/Hi-5: #9 Sonic Boom 7-2 WON ($8.00)


8th: Challenger, 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Stanford 8-5 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #5 Adirondack King 3-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Idolo Porteno 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Ami's Flatter 9-2 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #3 Hereditary 10-1 3rd


9th: 34th Florida Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 La Coronel 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #9 Compelled 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Super Marina 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Daddys Lil Darling 7-2 6th
Super/Hi-5: #6 Fifty Five 6-1 WON ($10.20)


10th: 19th Hillsborough (G2), F&M-4+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Isabella Sings 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Dickinson 7-2 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #5 Elysea's World 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 My Impression 8-1 5th
Super/Hi-5: #7 Light in Paris 6-1 6th


11th: 37th Tampa Bay Derby (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

They may not be bad horses, but this is a bad race. That's not to say it isn't a good betting opportunity. Pace looks like it could get very hot with the serious outside players (Beasley, Sonic Mule, State of Honor, Wild Shot) all looking for advanced placement. I'll look inside for Zerpa's 12-1 Basha (Uncle Mo/Lemonette-Lemon Drop Kid) to like 2 turns and a ground-saving stalker's trip under capable Jaramillo. Collapse up front could also aid 15-1 Tale of Silence..

Best Value: #3 Basha 12-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Beasley 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Tapwrit 3-1 WON ($4.20)
Super Add: #1 Tale of Silence 15-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #8 State of Honor 4-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

7: 3-4-5 (A), 9-10 (B), 2-7-8 (C)
8: 2 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)
9: 5 (A), - (B), 2-3-4-6-7-9 (C)
10: 3-6 (A), - (B), 1-5-7-9 (C)
11: 1-3-5-6 (A), 4-7-8-9 (B), 2 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x1x2x8 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A's: 3x1x1x2x4 = 24 x .50 = $12


12th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 Rruntoperfectiom 5-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Include the Best 5-1 -
Exotics Use: #9 Boudicea's Revenge 7-2 WON ($8.20)
Super Add: #6 Right On By 4-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #3 First Appeal 9-2 -


P5 Grid:

9: 5 (A), - (B), 2-3-4-6-7-9 (C)
10: 3-6 (A), - (B), 1-5-7-9 (C)
11: 1-3-5-6 (A), 4-7-8-9 (B), 2 (C)
12: 5-7-9 (A), 2-3-4-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x2x8x7 = 112 x .50 = $56
All A's: 1x2x4x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (6/3/5/9) Paid $190.60 (C-A-A-A)



SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES (LINK)


5th: 80th San Felipe (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Chess match between Mastery (Smith), Gormley (Espinoza) & Iliad (Prat) with all three looking for similar trip up front. Hard to argue Baffert merits here..

Most Likely: #4 Mastery 6-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #6 Iliad 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Gormley 9-5 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Vending Machine 20-1 7th


6th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Jeremy's Legacy 4-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Ceeme Run Wild 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #11 Ava Forty Seven 8-1 10th
Exotics Use: #1 Madame Stripes 6-1 8th


7th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Red hot MDN affair with buzzy works emanating from a host of sassy connections/pedigrees..

Best Value: #10 Bird Orr Brady 6-1 4th
Next Best: #11 American Pastime 9-2 WON ($8.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Twisted Road 5-1 7th
Super Add: #12 Cascade Kid 6-1 2nd


8th: 66th Triple Bend (G1), 4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Masochistic 1-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Denman's Call 15-1 WON ($35.40)
Next Best: #4 Silent Bird 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Conquest Cobra 10-1 3rd


9th: 17th Kilroe Mile (G1), 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Classy set with interchangeable Arcadia superfecta and addition of Dortmund making turf bow..

Most Likely: #6 Conquest Enforcer 7-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Ring Weekend 4-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Dortmund 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Bolo 7-2 3rd


10th: 80th Santa Anita H. (G1), 4+, 10f (DD)

For all the grousing how this isn't the Big Cap of old, race has some intrigue, especially if you aren't convinced Midnight Storm stays the 10f. Pace-wise, Midnight Storm has every chance..

Most Likely: #1 Midnight Storm 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Shaman Ghost 2-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #4 Isotherm 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Follow Me Crev 8-1 3rd


11th: 14th ChinaDoll, 3yo-F, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Sircat Sally 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #10 Beau Recall 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 La Force 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Miss Sugars 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #11 Miss Sunset 6-1 6th


P4 Grid:

8: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-4-5-6-7 (A), - (B), 1-2/SCR (C)
10: 1-3-4 (A), 5-8-9 (B), 2-5-7-8 (C)
11: 5-10 (A), 8 (B), 1-3-9-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x5x3 = $75 ($36.50 for .50)
All A's: 1x5x3x2 = $30 ($15 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve