Pace in the Classic

[Travis Stone]

I think everyone is caught-up in whether or not Bernardini can stare horses in the eye and has forgotten about a critical component. I'm trying to put Bernardini aside a figure out what the pace will be. Bernardini can lead or stalk, so we know what he can do, but what about everyone else?

Confirmed Front-Runners:

Lava Man - I think he does his best when on the lead and I think that's where we will see him. They won't take his best game plan away in such a big race.

Uncertain Front-Runners:

Lawyer Ron - This guy is with a new trainer and working slower. Does that mean they will rate him? Can he go 10 furlongs?

Brother Derek- Most likely just off the pace.

Premium Tap - The horse is probably better off the pace, what do they do?

Suave - Good tactical speed, but do they use it? Or, rather hope the leaders back-up for them? Are they in to win, or get a nice chunk of change?

By this, perhaps Bernardini and Lava Man take it to each other from the start. Survival from that point on? Tough call.

[mclem10011]

So you see Lava Man trying to be on the lead, or close up not trying to steal it on the front end, but be right there? I could see that, but I could also see Lava Man laying back a bit with Bernardini, and having a possible match race to the wire. As for Lawyer Ron, who knows what Pletcher's plans are, this horse is the wildcard of the bunch! I agree with you about Premium Tap, off the pace would seem to be his game, but this may not be the race to fall to far behind IMO. I just watched Perfect Drift work, he looked very good and as tough as always, and in my exotics for sure.

[pba1817]

IMO, if Lava Man is going to run his race and be a factor to win, he has to be dueling or alone on the front end. I realize that CD is souped up on the big racing days, but it still doesn't play as speed favoring as the CA tracks have been this past year. That even goes for the turf races he won as well.

I see the most likely pace pressure coming from Lawyer Ron, he is an obvious run-off type who cannot make 10f. Also, if he was being put in here with serious consideration to win, J. Velazquez would be named to ride because Flower Alley has looked like ass in his recent starts.

Bernardini and Invasor should get the dream trips here, sitting 3-4-5 early and waiting to pounce. This is all considering that fact that Lawyer Ron goes out with Lava Man, if he doesn't, Nakatani should be able to slow down enough to hold off the cavalry charge.

An unknown for me is George Washington.

I think on the bottom half of tri/supers is very interesting. Its hard to see any complete throw-outs entered here. My possible throw-outs would be Perfect Drift, Lawyer Ron, Flower Alley, and David Junior...

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by pba1817

I think on the bottom half of tri/supers is very interesting. Its hard to see any complete throw-outs entered here. My possible throw-outs would be Perfect Drift, Lawyer Ron, Flower Alley, and David Junior...

You'll throw out David Junior before Suave, Super Frolic, Giacomo and Lawyer Ron?

Have fun with that one, looks like there are lots of tickets to cash with that bunch.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by pba1817

My possible throw-outs would be Perfect Drift, Lawyer Ron, Flower Alley, and David Junior...

If you are playing exotics....you are nuts to throw out Perfect Drift. Betting a tri or a super without PD is almost always a mistake. A lot of these horses are big question marks. Could George Washington win.....yes. Could he finish last.....yes. Perfect Drift will not do either of those things. He will be somewhere between second and fifth. That is what he does. Leave him out at your own peril.

[Bernardini]

Which brings us to how these horses prepared for BCC?? Bernardini was pulled off the lead, and Lava Man was put to lead. Invasor has been outta action for sometime, seems more fitting for him to stay away from any pace scenario. GW and DJ questionable on dirt, but EU horses traditionally come off the pace. Prefect Drift stays away from the lead as well. If I put the cards together, the pace will be slow, who ever breaks on top inherits the lead. Here are my possible front runners: Premium Tap, Sauve, Lawyer Ron, and Brother Derek... I think they will pull Lava off and same goes for the other two favorites(dini and invasor). And now for the eventual winner: “Lava Man” though I will be pulling for Bernardini and Perfect Drift.

Originally Posted by Bernardini

Which brings us to how these horses prepared for BCC?? Bernardini was pulled off the lead, and Lava Man was put to lead. Invasor has been outta action for sometime, seems more fitting for him to stay away from any pace scenario. GW and DJ questionable on dirt, but EU horses traditionally come off the pace. Prefect Drift stays away from the lead as well. If I put the cards together, the pace will be slow, who ever breaks on top inherits the lead. Here are my possible front runners: Premium Tap, Sauve, Lawyer Ron, and Brother Derek... I think they will pull Lava off and same goes for the other two favorites(dini and invasor). And now for the eventual winner: “Lava Man” though I will be pulling for Bernardini and Perfect Drift.

I've been hoping for a quick pace in this race, but as I study PPs I'm beginning to think that it will be more of a controlled pace with a host of horses involved. I'm starting to think that this one will be decided by who makes their final move (among the leaders/stalkers) at the right time. A mistimed move, be it too early or too late, will be fatal

[Bernardini]

Originally Posted by miraja2

If you are playing exotics....you are nuts to throw out Perfect Drift. Betting a tri or a super without PD is almost always a mistake. A lot of these horses are big question marks. Could George Washington win.....yes. Could he finish last.....yes. Perfect Drift will not do either of those things. He will be somewhere between second and fifth. That is what he does. Leave him out at your own peril.

i agree 100%, PD is very consistent.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think everyone is caught-up in whether or not Bernardini can stare horses in the eye and has forgotten about a critical component. I'm trying to put Bernardini aside a figure out what the pace will be. Bernardini can lead or stalk, so we know what he can do, but what about everyone else?

Confirmed Front-Runners:

Lava Man - I think he does his best when on the lead and I think that's where we will see him. They won't take his best game plan away in such a big race.

Uncertain Front-Runners:

Lawyer Ron - This guy is with a new trainer and working slower. Does that mean they will rate him? Can he go 10 furlongs?

Brother Derek- Most likely just off the pace.

Premium Tap - The horse is probably better off the pace, what do they do?

Suave - Good tactical speed, but do they use it? Or, rather hope the leaders back-up for them? Are they in to win, or get a nice chunk of change?

By this, perhaps Bernardini and Lava Man take it to each other from the start. Survival from that point on? Tough call.

in a race where it seems that nobody will actually WANT the outright lead for fear of a pace breakdown, it seems that Suave will inherit the lead by default.

[Travis Stone]

You both are hitting on key points. I'm starting to question whether or not we'll even see a fast pace.

I think Suave will need the lead to win. It's just a matter of Lava Man and their approach. Most likely scenario is Suave and Lava Man battle on top.

[Travis Stone]

Let me append to those comments in that it's all about Lawyer Ron. If he goes, suddenly the pace completely changes. Tricky read.

[Pointg5]

I think the pace will be blistering, some of these trainers might believe the only way to beat Bernardini is to gang up on him and take shots, like Smarty in the Belmont...

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Let me append to those comments in that it's all about Lawyer Ron. If he goes, suddenly the pace completely changes. Tricky read.

This is the whole key to breaking this race down IMO. If Ron comes out rank and tugs his way to the front, again, Lava Man and Suave are compromised, not to mention LR himself.

[tycharles01]

Bernardini and Invasor are gonna get the best trips plain and simple. Lava Man wants to leave the pack and should but will have alot of company at the front. If somehow he does not get the lead, you could probably count him out.

This race will not be won by a front runner, its a stalker race

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

Bernardini and Invasor are gonna get the best trips plain and simple. Lava Man wants to leave the pack and should but will have alot of company at the front. If somehow he does not get the lead, you could probably count him out.

This race will not be won by a front runner, its a stalker race

Sorry, but one look at the PP's should make it clear that Lava Man is perfectly happy to run with the pack. A quick scan of his 34 starts shows perhaps two races where he had even a 1-length lead after a half mile. If the pace is fast, Lava Man has shown he can settle into 3rd or 4th, as he did in the Sunshine Million in January and the Hollywood GC in July. There's no need to "count him out" if he doesn't get the lead.

I won't be betting him, though, because I think he will be overbet.

--Dunbar

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I won't be betting him, though, because I think he will be overbet.

--Dunbar

Overbet or not, I won't be betting him because I don't think he can win against these at 10F at CD. Not his style of racing.