Choosing a winner !!!

[Bernardini]

Handicapping Tools


I use the following list so to speak!!

1. Pedigree(I definitely pay attention to this prior to any other aspect, my favorite Sire are the horses I have seen in action, naturally I rout/will rout generations of Point Given, Fu Peg, Aptitude, Empire Maker, Charismatic, Mineshaft, AP Indy!!! Broodmare is equally important, just doesnt get much attention.
2. Past performance (I don’t pay much attention to speed figures, though number do help)
3. Trainer (GO Bobby Frankle)
4. Race day track condition (Poly Track is going to negate a lot of uncertainties)
5. Jockey (I loved Bailey!!!)
6. Owner (Michael Tabor, Coolmore, John Oxley, Sheikh MO, Sheik Hamdan, Darley, Godolphin, Gainsway, Juddmonte, Ramseys, Late Bob & Beverley Lewis!!doesn’t matter they all take good care of the animals)


Any takes??

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Bernardini

Handicapping Tools


I use the following list so to speak!!

1. Pedigree(I definitely pay attention to this prior to any other aspect, my favorite Sire are the horses I have seen in action, naturally I rout/will rout generations of Point Given, Fu Peg, Aptitude, Empire Maker, Charismatic, Mineshaft, AP Indy!!! Broodmare is equally important, just doesnt get much attention.
2. Past performance (I don’t pay much attention to speed figures, though number do help)
3. Trainer (GO Bobby Frankle)
4. Race day track condition (Poly Track is going to negate a lot of uncertainties)
5. Jockey (I loved Bailey!!!)
6. Owner (Michael Tabor, Coolmore, John Oxley, Sheikh MO, Sheik Hamdan, Darley, Godolphin, Gainsway, Juddmonte, Ramseys, Late Bob & Beverley Lewis!!doesn’t matter they all take good care of the animals)


Any takes??

My takes:

1) If the formula is working for you.....use it. If it is not.....get rid of it.
2) Is this in order of importance because if it is....how can pedigree be #1???? Pedigree can be good for betting 2yo and it can sometimes be helpful in guessing how far a horse will go or if they wil like the turf.....but I sure would not put it #1.
3) Who cares about the owner?

[repent]

is this a joke?
please tell me pedigree is not the first thing you look at or that you place more emphasis on the pedigree of a horse than you do on his form lines.

pedigree is a useful tool if you are trying to determine what a horse might do when trying something for the first time.
once they have run at the given condition in question, its kind of meaningless information.

but, whatever is profitable for you..................



Repent

[Bernardini]

Originally Posted by repent

is this a joke?
please tell me pedigree is not the first thing you look at or that you place more emphasis on the pedigree of a horse than you do on his form lines.

pedigree is a useful tool if you are trying to determine what a horse might do when trying something for the first time.
once they have run at the given condition in question, its kind of meaningless information.

but, whatever is profitable for you..................



Repent

thats fine but im not a great handicapper either !!! and to be honest I bet only few times a year. Though watch almost all the Major Preps and Major Races.

[repent]

Originally Posted by Bernardini

thats fine but im not a great handicapper either !!! and to be honest I bet only few times a year. Though watch almost all the Major Preps and Major Races.

lol,
no worries.
Im not a great handicapper either and I handicap 365 days a year.


Repent

[skippy3481]

I'll throw my hat into the ring as a not great handicapper. Heres usually how i cap

Find pace scenerio.
Group runners into pace classes (front runners, stalkers,deep closers)
Rank Horses in each class
Determine(due to pace scenerio) which group is likely to be in front at the line.
Then I typically run through a couple of scenerios and see what happens.
of course it sounds so easy, but so its so hard in real life. The point is to have fun. As long as your having fun, do what you do, and don't let anyone change your mind. If you ever want help though, many people here would be glad to offer it.

[repent]

Originally Posted by skippy3481

I'll throw my hat into the ring as a not great handicapper. Heres usually how i cap

Find pace scenerio.
Group runners into pace classes (front runners, stalkers,deep closers)
Rank Horses in each class
Determine(due to pace scenerio) which group is likely to be in front at the line.
Then I typically run through a couple of scenerios and see what happens.
of course it sounds so easy, but so its so hard in real life. The point is to have fun. As long as your having fun, do what you do, and don't let anyone change your mind. If you ever want help though, many people here would be glad to offer it.

wow,
thats pretty similar to what I do.

I suck at dirt racing, but Im getting better.
little better luck with turf racing.

Repent

[Bernardini]

lol, I shouldnt be worried about my handicapping skills....
2002 I picked War Emblem just becasue Baffert connection....

[repent]

Originally Posted by Bernardini

lol, I shouldnt be worried about my handicapping skills....
2002 I picked War Emblem just becasue Baffert connection....

was on PDrift that year.

wow,
what a lifetime ago.

I could not see myself picking PDrift to win any Grade 1 race these days.


Repent

[repent]

btw,
for what it is worth,
I first try to determine the pace scenario and then try to come to some conclusions about the class level of the horses in the race and how they compare to their competitors.
thats where I start.


Repent