10/29: Transition Day

[Kasept]

It's a transative Sunday in racing as Churchill Downs opens its' fall meet with Keeneland's fascinating gathering closed, and Oak Tree at Santa Anita concludes to give way to Hollywood's artificial surface debut.

A new phenomenon is set to avail itself to horseplayers as well, as two year old racers that have only run on PolyTrack make debuts on dirt for the first time. 21 horses whose only starts came on artificial surfaces at Woodbine, Turfway or Keeneland are entered in the all juvenile card at Churchill today.

How now to cap these runners? PolyVerse... Horses that have only run on Poly thus far, like Carl Nafzger's Lady Joanne in today's Pocahontas (Gr. III), are important to watch in these first weeks post KEE. Lady Joanne is particularly interesting as a daughter of first year sire Orientate who has yet to get a turf winner in 5 starts but is hitting at 17% overall.

Lady Joanne broke her maiden last out at KEE, but could be a much faster filly on 'real' dirt. My recommendation is to be familiar with sire dirt-turf stats and take chances with progeny of poor turf sires who are finally getting a chance to strut their stuff on the surface they are suited for the most.

Conversely, horses that were successful in their PolyTrack experiences and are the sons and daughters of good turf sires, may have to be discounted as they try to carry their artifical surface form to the main.

The opportunities will be there in either direction...


SELECTIONS -- Churchill Downs, 10/29 (Late Guaranteed P4)


8th: 25th IROQUOIS (Gr. III), $100,000, 2yo, 1m ($100K P4, P3, Superfecta)

1. #1 What a Tale 6-1 2nd
2. #5 Officer Rockett 2-1
A. #2 Tiz Wonderful 3-1 WON
B. #4 Incriminate 7-2


9th: ALW/N1X, 2yo fillies, 1m-T (P3, Superfecta)

1. #9 Ochre 7-5 2nd
2. #2 Zofzig 5-2 WON
3. #1 Catching 6-1


10th: 38th POCAHONTAS (Gr. III), $100,000, 2yo fillies, 1m (Superfecta)

1. #3 Change Up 5-2 WON
2. #8 Mistical Plan 3-1 2nd
A. #9 Taletobetold 6-1
B. #2 Lady Joanne 12-1 3rd


11th: MSW, 2yo, 1m (Superfecta)

1. #3 Izzie's Halo 5-2
2. #4 Most Distinguished 7-2 3rd
A. #2 Five Star Dawn 10-1
B. #8 Meritocracy 8-1 2nd
C. #9 Timber Reserve 4-1 WON


<$50 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-4-5
9: 1-2-9
10: 3-8
11: 3-4

4x3x2x2 = $48



AQUEDUCT 2yo Gr. III's -- 3rd: 31st Tempted/8th: 31st Nashua


Two short fielded but interesting and competitive graded standards for babies.. Opportunity exists for a pair of Five Star Day babies to continue to raise their sires' profile...


3rd: 31st TEMPTED (Gr. III), $100,000, 2yo fillies, 1m

1. #5 Tell It as It Is 15-1: Speed could set this Chester House bay up..
2. #2 Five Star Daydream 6-5: Shug 3X winner gets plenty of pressure..
3. #4 Spectacular Malibu 6-1: Trombo's MD Mill Day winner doesn't need lead..


8th: 31st NASHUA (Gr. III), $100,000, 2yo, 1m

1. #2 DAY PASS 4-1: KMc's Darley grey was talk of JCGC Day at BEL..
2. #6 Sightseeing 4-1: Phipps' Pulpit pony pressed pace popping 'ploma..
3. #5 Cowtown Cat 8-5: Pletcher ML fave must avoid regression off last..


Good luck!
Steve

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

common my son get r done.....great job steve..i will use you picks and add the 1 in the super nicks horse...