8/19: Saratoga (Alabama Day); Del Mar (Pacific Classic Day)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 River Date 4th
Next Best: #8 Southside Warrior WON ($6.90)
Exotics Use: #1 Mills 2nd


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #12 Honorable Treasure 10-1 WON ($9.20)
Next Best: #8 Ezmosh 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Congruity 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Cullum Road 12-1 4th

$1 Exacta (12-8) $21.40
$1 Trifecta (12-8-4) $63.50
$1 Superfecta (12-8-4-6) $360.50


3rd: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Meh. Typically nondescript starter hodge-podge. Favored Hexameter (9-5) isn't all that special..

Most Likely: #4 Wildcat Belle 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Kentucky Dancer 8-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Hexameter 9-5 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Pico Chick 4-1 3rd


4th: Opt CLM/C, 3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD)

Lots of stakes performers assemble here including G2 Bowling Green 5th Hello Don Julio & G3 Arlington H. 4th Manitoulin. Pace picture is somewhat murky..

Most Likely: #6 Manitoulin 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Hello Don Julio 3-1 WON ($8.10)
Best Value: #7 Aquaphobia 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Doctor Mounty 15-1 7th


5th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

A gaggle of impressive pedigrees on display here with workmate pair of Chad Brown's most prominent in $600k Pompa Flatter buy Allured (half to Don Tito) and Klaravich Curlin tab Variant Perception. Pletcher's Super Sermon and Godolphin's Avery Island look well schooled for debut as well. Fun sibling note: Moquett's Want (New Year's Day) sees brother Mills run in the 1st. KMc's First Warrior (War Front) has sister Berned involved in the Lake Placid!.

Best Value: #7 Allured 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Super Sermon 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Variant Perception 5-2 4th
Super Add: #9 Bourbon Currency 10-1 6th


P5 Grid:

1: 6-8 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
2: 8-12 (A), 4-6 (B), 3-9 (C)
3: 4-7 (A), 2-5 (B), - (C)
4: 6 (A), - (B), 1-5-7-8 (C)
5: 2-6-7 (A), - (B), 4-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x1x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x1x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


P4 Grid:

2: 8-12 (A), 4-6 (B), 3-9 (C)
3: 4-7 (A), 2-5 (B), 1-3-6 (C)
4: 1-6 (A), 7 (B), 5 (C)
5: 2-6-7 (A), - (B), 4-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)


6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Now THIS is what you call an allowance race with 3yo Triple Crown Trail types Meantime (Peter Pan, Belmont), Monaco (LA Derby) & soph debuting Hookup (Remsen) facing off against hard-hitting elders. Tricky start to NYRA Bets P5. (SCR Caviar Czar who won as MTO Friday)..

Best Value: #1e Repole entry 8-1 5th/9th
Next Best: #8 Meantime 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Battle Midway 6-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Wine Not 8-1 8th


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Odd set of horses with long layoffs and spotty form part of puzzle. As he's done twice this meet, Lezcano is going to try to build insurmountable lead with Miss Kentucky. May not be a bad gambit either..

Most Likely: #4 Mom's On Strike 3-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Miss Kentucky 8-1 10th
Next Best: #6 Ellery Lane 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Glory to Kitten 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Great Import 6-1 8th


8th: Lake Placid (G2), 3yo-F, 9f-T (SAR-DMR X-C P4, P3, DD)

Proctor's Ledge broke through in Lake George and seems to be developing tactical side which will come in handy in this pace-empty sextet..

SAR-DMR X-C P4 Grid Below DMR Oaks..

Most Likely: #4 Proctor's Ledge 5-2 WON ($6.40)
Next Best: #3 La Coronel 8-5 4th
Best Value: #2 Party Boat 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Uni 3-1 2nd


9th: Alabama (G1), 3yo-F, 10f (DD)

One of the most interesting editions of this historic Spa standard in recent memory with 10f winners New Money Honey (Belmont Oaks) and Holy Helena (Queen's Plate) making surface transitions to the main track. Unchained Melody announced herself loudly with Mother Goose downstate and will be prominent throughout for Lynch under Rosario. She should make the classic trip and looms the one to run down. Bill Mott has taken his time with Claiborne's Elite and Juddmonte's Lockdown and neither would surprise. Delaware Oaks 1-2 players It Tiz Well (Hollendorfer) and Actress (Ja. Servis) demand attention with pedigrees that translate fine to the distance demands. Casse's Salty and O'Neil's Mopotism have kept good company throughout their careers but feel like fillies that don't want to go this far.

Best Value: #3 It Tiz Well 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Unchained Melody 3-1 DNF
Exotics Use: #1 New Money Honey 6-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Actress 15-1 4th


10th: MSW, 3+, 1m-IT

Best Value: # #4 Speighgal 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Assertive 5-2 10th
Exotics Use: #2 Aoife 15-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Star Maven 30-1 8th


P5 Grid:

6: 1-8 (A), - (B), 3-4 (C)
7: 2-4 (A), 6 (B), 3-8 (C)
8: 3-4 (A), 2 (B), 1-5-6 (C)
9: 1-3-5 (A), 4-7-9 (B), 2-6-8 (C)
10: 1-4 (A), - (B), 2-5-6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x6x2 = 216 x .50 = $108
All A's: 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

7: 2-4-6 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C)
8: 3-4 (A), 2 (B), 1-5-6 (C)
9: 1-3-5-9 (A), 2-4-6-7-8 (B), - (C)
10: 1-4 (A), - (B), 2-5-6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x9x2 = 162 x .50 = $81
All A's: 3x2x4x2 = 48 x .50 = $24



DEL MAR


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Jackpot P6 Force-Out Starts Here..

Most Likely: #6 Tyfosha 5-2: Experienced filly to beat.. 2nd
Next Best: #5 Moonshine Memories 3-1: Elite ownership team paid $650k.. WON ($9.40)
Best Value: #1 Crownstone 6-1: Baffert for Godolphin; half to Bandini.. -
Exotics Use: #7 Dr. Ann 4-1: The 'other' O'Neill.. 3rd


7th: Del Mar H. (G2), 3+, 11f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Itsinthepost 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Ashleylovessugar 7-2 6th
Best Value: #9 He Will 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Flamboyant 15-1 3rd


8th: Pacific Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (P4, P3, DD)

A lot of guesswork involved as to what you get from Arrogate today. Really sense the World Cup has taken something out of him as every observation of his prep work denotes a slight, perceptible absence of his previous brilliance. Even acknowledging his mortality, he's perfect in 3 tries at 10f and only Hard Aces has even one win at the Classic trip. If surface issues are part of the equation, Accelerate is the one that's perfect in a trio of Oceanside tries. Meanwhile, Collected has matured in to a terror and Baffert clearly wanted to give him as much time as possible out of the eye-popping Precisionist that registered a 111 Beyer and -5 on Thoro-Graph. Donworth is an exotics use 3rd off the layoff..

Most Likely: #8 Arrogate 1-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Accelerate 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Donworth 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Collected 5-2 WON ($8.00)


9th: OC/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Americanize 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Edwards Going Left 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #2 Nardo 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Street Vision 6-1 8th


10th: Del Mar Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f-T (DD)

Crazily competitive group. Pick a few that have run for you previously and hope for the best..

Most Likely: #2 Madame Dancealot 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Con Te Partiro 7-2 4th
Best Value: #7 Vexatious 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #11 Pacific Wind 12-1 9th


SAR-DMR X-C P4 Grid:

SAR 8: 2-3-4 (A), - (B), 1-5-6 (C)
SAR 9: 1-3-5-9 (A), 4-7 (B), 2-6-8 (C)
DMR 8: 8 (A), 3 (B), 2-5-6 (C)
DMR 10: 2-5 (A), 7-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x4x1x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)


11th: MSW-Cal, F&M-3+, 6f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Laynee 3-1 -
Next Best: #3 Hope She Will 4-1 -
Best Value: #10 Paula With a P 20-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Powder 5-1 WON ($8.60)


P6 Grid:

6: 6 (A), 5 (B), 1-7 (C)
7: 5-8 (A), - (B), 7-9 (C)
8: 8 (A), 3 (B), 2-6 (C)
9: 8-10 (A), 2 (B), 1-3 (C)
10: 2-5-7 (A), - (B), 3-10-11-12 (C)
11: 8 (A), - (B), 3-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x3x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144
All A's: 1x2x1x2x3x1 = 12 x $2 = $24


P4 Grid:

8: 8 (A), 3 (B), 2-5-6 (C)
9: 8-10 (A), 2 (B), 1-3 (C)
10: 2-5-7-11 (A), 3-10-12 (B), 6-13 (C)
11: 3-8 (A), - (B), 6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x7x2 = 84 x .50 = $42
All A's: 1x3x4x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[Kasept]

RACES 1 & 2 ARE OFF THE TURF SATURDAY

SAR SCR/CHG'S

CONDITIONS ~ MAIN: GOOD; TURF: GOOD

[Kasept]

DMR SCR/CHG'S