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#1
09-14-2018, 06:14 AM
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September 15 Woodbine Points Picks go here
Plenilune selected Woodbine for our contest venue, so off we go to Canada. Make sure you have your passports up to date, cross the border and follow the QEW until we get to Toronto.
We will be playing the 12 race card at Woodbine, featuring the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile. Please have your selections posted on this thread not later than 1:05 PM Eastern time. Good luck to all and thank you to Plenilune for selecting this venue and for scoring. 
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#2
09-14-2018, 11:14 AM
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Will all of you please pardon me while I vent?
The topic is morning lines, especially the ML for this week's contest card. Some morning lines are better than others, and I know that most linemakers do their best to predict how the wagering public will bet their races. It is not an easy job. As I looked at the Woodbine line, I got the distinct impression that the linemaker had fallen into a very mechanical pattern and was almost doing the line by rote. In most races, there was what appeared to be an analysis of the top three selections, but after that in almost every race the 4th ranked pick was 6-1, the 5th ranked pick was 8-1, and the next rank was in a couple of cases 8-1, but usually double digits. In the two races where there will probably be an odds on favorite, the linemaker simply wrote in 1-1 and moved on. I had the feeling that the linemaker wanted his numbers to work out and forced the odds into his formula rather than conscientiously evaluating how each race would be bet. This is a disservice to the horseplayer. Some players make their own line, but many beginners use the line to determine whether a horse is a good bet or not, and in many instances the line can become a sort of self fulfilling prophecy. OK, I've gotten that off of my chest, I feel better now. Thank you for your indulgence.
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#3
09-14-2018, 11:54 AM
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Mrrrrow!
JOLY
I've Seen The ML Hurt Me More Times Than HELP!  Trying To Do ROI With A ML Of A Decent Odds Has Resulted In Either NO Placing in ROI Or ~ As In This Week ROI: * 4th place due to a ML of 12/1 (*With J Ortiz) Shoulda Known That JOCK Would NOT Stay @ 12/1 But If Wishes Were Fishes: My Fish Was Cooked By Post Time  My KITTEN Went Down To A Whopping Payoff of $14.40 Whooo-Hooo! 
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#4
09-14-2018, 12:05 PM
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Quote:
Fortunately, in real life you have the live tote in front of you before going to the window (except for multi-race exotics). And, given the way the tote can fluctuate wildly, you can wait until close to the last minute before making your go/no go decision.
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#5
09-14-2018, 12:28 PM
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Sarava
Of course LUCK Can work for me instead of against me
 My Most Memorable Win (Actual $$ Bet) My $$ Bet on SARAVA (Belmont) Originally was 20/1 My payout was 70/1  My Mailman always would ask me Who did I like in the Triple Crown races I did tell him in the Derby... GIACOMO (Gray Son Of HOLY BULL Who Is In My Book + A FAVE Sire) How would I not play that horse and he went off at 50/1 So when I told him SARAVA He came back on Monday morning to thank me having made something like $700 in two minutes So ~ Ya Win Some ~ Ya Lose Some (*Title Of My Book) Some Days You’re The Kitten’s Joy Other Days Just A Litter Box!
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#6
09-14-2018, 12:34 PM
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Weird & Wacky
WACKY & WEIRD @ WOODBINE
  R1 5 4 8 1 7 R2 6 2 1 4 9 R3 8 3 4 2 5 R4 4 1 6 8 9 R5 4 1 7 5 6 R6 1 4 3 8 7 R7 4 2 6 3 5 R8 3 7 6 5 1 R9 5 3 8 1 4 R10 3 6 10 9 8 R11 5 1 3 4 10 R12 8 7 4 6 3 Last edited by RUFFIAN : 09-15-2018 at 11:15 AM. Reason: SCR
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#7
09-15-2018, 11:54 AM
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R1: 8 5 4 alt: 7 6
R2: 6 2 9 alt: 7 5 R3: 4 3 5 alt: 8 6 R4: 1 4 6 alt: 8 5 R5: 4 7 1 alt: 5 6 R6: 4 1 7 alt: 6 8 R7: 2 4 3 alt: 1 5 R8: 3 6 7 alt: 1 8 R9: 5 3 8 alt: 6 1 R10: 3 6 9 alt: 4 10 R11: 5 10 1 alt: 3 7 R12: 7 8 2 alt: 6 3
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