3/9: Tampa (P5 C/O); Aqueduct (8th-11th); Oaklawn (X-C Stakes P5)

Kasept · #1 03-09-2019, 03:41 AM

TAMPA BAY DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: Columbia, 3yo, 1m-T (Stakes P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

$35k P5 C/O starts here..

Very little speed signed on with stretching Crosstown Shootout seemingly certain to get the lead and set whatever pace he wants. Tricky start to carryover P5 sequence with perhaps 8 of the 11 looking capable of laurels..

Most Likely: #2 Bluegrass Parkway 4-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Digital Age 8-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #1 Crosstown Shootout 30-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 English Bee 3-1 5th

8th: Challenger, 4+, 8.5f (Stakes P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Wilkes finds nice spot for Bourbon Resolution's return to stakes company while 2nd/layoff. Should sit right behind dueling speed(s)..

Best Value: #5 BOURBON RESOLUTION 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Flameaway 3-2 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Killybegs Captain 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Jay's Way 3-1 6th

9th: Hillsborough (G3), F&M-4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Hawksmoor's career finale and what a nice mare she's been..

Most Likely: #8 Onthemoonagain 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Viva Vegas 8-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Hawksmoor 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Rymska 5-2 WON ($5.20)

10th: Florida Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

While awaiting Newspaperofrecord's return, the rest of the crop of 3yo filly turfers is shaping up nicely. 2-for-2 Winter Sunset is the latest from the Phillips Family unbelievable line of 'Memories' mares..

Best Value: #3 Winter Sunset 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 La Feve 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Elsa 6-1 8th
Super Add: #10 Stellar Agent 4-1 11th

11th: Tampa Bay Derby (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Hard for me to be objective given long-standing relationships with Trombetta and Live Oak, but Win Win Win is overwhelmingly the horse to beat despite needing to answer the two turn question. Has trained forwardly since Pasco and can be placed wherever Irad Ortiz wants given anticipated fast pace. Dream Maker made progress in his seasonal bow from his status as under-performing 2yo prospect and looms the logical prime challenger. Outshine quietly slipped in to the entry box for Pletcher and showed spark with the addition of blinkers in his 3yo debut. Like the favorite, has trained progressively and stretches out from 7f. 8-1 and you get Rosario (assuming you still like him). Admire or Sir Winston (both 12-1) can add pizazz to the deep exotics. Hard to see a repeat of the Sam Davis, but will use Well Defined as a lone C given possibility he somehow gets loose again..

Most Likely: #7 Win Win Win 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Outshine 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Dream Maker 4-1 10th
Exotics Use: #1 Admire 12-1 7th

P5 Grid:

7: 1-2-8 (A), 3-5-9 (B), 6-11 (C)
8: 5 (A), - (B), 1-3-6 (C)
9: 3-8 (A), - (B), 2-7-10 (C)
10: 1-3 (A), 4-10 (B), 5-7 (C)
11: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), 5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x1x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

8: 5 (A), 1 (B), 3-6 (C)
9: 2-3-7-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-3-4 (A), 7-10 (B), 2-5 (C)
11: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), 5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 1x5x3x3 = 45 x .50 = $22.50

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: Tom Fool (G3), 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Skyler's Scramjet & Do Share were 1-2 in this a year ago. Favored Scramjet doesn't face same high profile types today after running into Recruiting Ready & Solid Wager in the Gravesend & Toboggan. Do Share returns to AQU where he's always run well..

Most Likely: #3 Skyler's Scramjet 8-5 4th
Best Value: #2 Do Share 8-1 WON ($12.80)
Next Best: #5 Bavaro 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Syndegaard 3-1 5th

9th: Stymie, 4+, 1m (P3, DD)

When discussing this with Dave Grening Friday on Weekend Preview ATR, I wasn't sure that 3rd choice Vino Rosso (7-2) would have sufficient pace to attack in his 4yo debut. But California Night and Stan the Man are lining up shoulder to shoulder and Shivermetimbers has speed to press from the outside, so this may actually have more lick to it than first appeared. Remember that Vino Rosso is 2/2 at the Big A with the Wood tally and having broken his MDN here (7f). Curlins see plenty of improvement from 3 to 4 (and from 4 to 5 as well) and it's notable that Pletcher has been doing very well with his older horses (Prince Lucky, Coal Front, Bonus Points) in these settings. Think Vino comes back running..

Best Value: #8 Vino Rosso 7-2 WON ($5.80)
Next Best: #2 Sunny Ridge 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Title Ready 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Curlin's Honor 15-1 7th

10th: Gotham (G3), 3yo, 1m (DD)

Sure looks like this group will boil over with all but Haikal (6-1), Tikhvin Flew (12-1) & Family Biz (30-1) looking to be part of the pace. The question to answer among the frontrunners, is who seems most tractable and it's probably Mind Control who could fly early at 2 and then set a measured pace and finished in his rock solid 3yo debut (Jerome). Instagrand returns after the strange ownership-mandated mothballing and while abundantly talented, it's hard to go all in on him at even money (or less) off the 7 month hiatus. Tikhvin Flew is liberally priced, has been sharpened since the Winkfield try and should enjoy an advantageous outside stalking trip. Not sure what to make of Baffert's Much Better in here. He's 2/2-0-0 around one turn (3/0-1-0 around 2 including pair of turf runs), but has yet to run fast enough to beat several here. On the plus side, you get a rare double digit number (10-1) on a Baffert stakes-placed horse..

Most Likely: #3 Mind Control 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Instagrand 1-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Tikhvin Flew 12-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Haikal 6-1 WON ($10.80)

11th: Busher, 3yo-F, 1m

Excellent edition of this Oaks points event with plenty of pace to keep it honest. Beau Lane-bred Orra Moor (Orb) already 2-for-2 and should keep improving with added ground. Figures to get the Marty McGee 'open air outside box where the air is fresh and clear' trip. Respect Mark Reid too much ignore unbeaten fave Please Flatter Me, who may prove here that she doesn't need the lead..

Best Value: #12 Orra Moor 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Please Flatter Me 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Ujjayi 10-1 9th
Super Add: #2 Espresso Shot 8-1 WON ($10.20)

P4 Grid:

8: 2-3-5 (A), - (B), 1-4 (C)
9: 2-8 (A), - (B), 1-4-5 (C)
10: 3-6 (A), 5-8 (B), 4-7 (C)
11: 1-10-12 (A), 2-3-11 (B), 7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x6 = 144 z .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (2/8/5/2) Paid $673.25

OAKLAWN PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

9th: Honeybee (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f

Morning thunderstorms expected..

Most Likely: #6 Power Gal 9-2 7th
Best Value: #4 Bizwhacks 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Motion Emotion 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Raintree Starlet 6-1 8th

X-C P5 Grid:

This is a devilishly tough sequence which makes small budget plays a real challenge..

TAM 10th: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), 7-10 (C)
AQU 10th: 3-6 (A), 5-8 (B), 4-7 (C)
TAM 11th: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
AQU 11th: 10-12 (A), 1-2 (B), 3-11 (C)
OP 9th: 4-6 (A), - (B), 2-5-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x4x2= 288 x .50 = $144
All A's: 3x2x3x2x2 = 72 x .50 = $36

Good luck!
Steve

moses · #2 03-09-2019, 09:23 AM

Thanks Steve and good luck. I’m pretty much on board with you for all these races, except I like the #7 Not That Brady in the Gotham a little more than you do.

I added the #8 Onthemoonagain to my Pick 4 in Tampa, so if it hits, I’ll owe you one.

Kasept · #3 03-09-2019, 09:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

Thanks Steve and good luck. I’m pretty much on board with you for all these races, except I like the #7 Not That Brady in the Gotham a little more than you do.

I added the #8 Onthemoonagain to my Pick 4 in Tampa, so if it hits, I’ll owe you one.

Moishe.. Best of luck today. As I said this week, my only reservation on Not That Brady is the quarter crack issue. He's a hard trying gelding and was terrific in the Withers..