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#1
05-02-2019, 02:44 PM
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5/3: Churchill Downs (145th Oaks Day) ~ 1st/4th off the turf..
CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 145TH OAKS DAY
POST-SCRATCHES 1st: S/ALW, 3yo, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P5, P3, DD) Best Value: #3 Off Sixes 7th Most Likely: #8 Luck of the Draw 5th Next Best: #7 Gigging WON ($9.80) Exotics Use: #9 Coworker 6th 2nd: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD) Weird group with some seasonal debuts mixed in with a few inconsistent types.. Best Value: #5 Upset Brewing 8-1 2nd Next Best: #2 Awestruck 5-2 WON ($6.80) Exotics Use: #3 Alter Moon 8-5 3rd Super Add: #6 Magical 6-1 6th 3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD) No less than 5 turnbacks signed on and notably, only one runner involved here that owns a win at seven-eighths (Golden Curl).. Most Likely: #9 Golden Curl 3-1 6th Next Best: #6 Irish Mischief 3-1 2nd Best Value: #2 Weabie 12-1 8th Exotics Use: #3 Lady Kate SCR 4th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: # Best Value: # Next Best: # Exotics Use: # Super Add: # 5th: Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD) Mother Mother a bad favorite here with Queen of Beas, Break Even, Del Mar May & Lyrical Lady all more appealing. Bell's the One too. As a 2yo sprinting filly, Del Mar May was bested by only Bellafina and Brill. Likely 5th choice and well within striking distance of these.. Best Value: #6 Del Mar May 5-1 7th Next Best: #4 Break Even 4-1 WON ($6.40) Exotics Use: #3 Queen of Beas 4-1 3rd Super Add: #5 Bell's the One 15-1 2nd 6th: Edgewood (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (Jackpot Single 6, P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 Newspaperofrecord 3-5 2nd Best Value: #5 Concrete Rose 8-1 WON ($13.80) Next Best: #2 Cambier Parc 2-1 4th Exotics Use: #3 Winter Sunset 10-1 3rd 7th: Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 McKinzie 8-5 WON ($3.40) Best Value: #5 Bourbon Resolution 15-1 7th Next Best: #2 Tom's d'Etat 5-1 2nd Exotics Use: #8 Seeking the Soul 5-2 3rd 8th: La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD) 2-day $2 P6 starts here.. Most Likely: #9 Secret Spice 5-2 2nd Next Best: #2 Blue Prize 3-1 3rd Exotics Use: #3 Divine Miss Grey 7-2 8th Super Add: #1 She's a Julie 7-2 WON ($12.00) 9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD) Best Value: #5 Knights Key 10-1 7th Next Best: #7 Solid Wager 5-2 2nd Exotics Use: #15 Soul Streitz 2-1 12th Super Add: #12 Fuel the Bern 20-1 5th 10th: T/S Turf Sprint (G2), 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD) World of Trouble essentially gets same softer turf condition that saw he and Stormy Liberal freak in Breeder's Cup.. Most Likely: #6 World of Trouble 1-1 WON ($2.60) Best Value: #5 Chaos Theory 12-1 3rd Next Best: #1 Bound for Nowhere SCR Exotics Use: #7 Angaston 15-1 5th 11th: Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Hi-5) Most Likely: #10 Champagne Anyone 6-1 4th Best Value: #3 Lady Apple 20-1 3rd Exotics Use: #4 Bellafina 2-1 5th Super Add: #2 Chocolate Kisses 20-1 8th Hi-5 Play: #1 Out for a Spin 15-1 11th P5 Grid: 7: 1 (A), - (B), 2-5-8 (C) 8: 2-9 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C) 9: 5-7-12 (A), 1-2-8 (B), - (C) 10: 6 (A), - (B), - (C) 11: 2-3-4-10 (A), 1-12 (B), 7-8 (C) Simple (A+B): 1x4x6x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72 All A's: 1x2x3x1x4 = $24 ($12 for .50) P4 Grid: 8: 2-9 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C) 9: 5-7-12 (A), 2-8-15 (B), - (C) 10: 6 (A), - (B), - (C) 11: 2-3-4-10 (A), 1-12 (B), 7-8 (C) Simple (A+B): 4x6x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72 All A's: 2x3x1x4 = $24 ($12 for .50) Oaks/Turf Classic/Derby P3 Grid: FRI 11: 3-10 (A), 1-2-4 (B), 7-8-12 (C) SAT 11: 12 (A), - (B), 1-2-6-8 (C) SAT 12: 5-8-16 (A), 7-14 (B), 1-6 (C) Simple (A+B): 5x1x5 = $25 All A's: 2x1x3 = $6 Oaks/Derby P3 Grid: FRI 11: 3-10 (A), 1-2-4 (B), 7-8-12 (C) SAT 12: 5-8-16 (A), 7-14 (B), 1-6-17-20 (C) Simple (A+B): 5x5 = $25 All A's: 2x3 = $6 12th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD) Best Value: #5 Goodbye Earl 15-1 7th Next Best: #11 Free Cover 5-1 8th Exotics Use: #3 High Regard 7-2 WON ($6.80) Super Add: #10 Cloud Charmer 12-1 5th 13th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f Brutally tough nightcap with promising pedigreed firsters and a hatfull of OK players with experience.. Most Likely: #8 Vomba 7-2 3rd Best Value: #12 Club Car 15-1 2nd Next Best: #9 Indomitable Spirit 10-1 11th Exotics Use: #2 Chocolate Swirl 20-1 6th P5 Grid: 9: 5-7 (A), 12-15 (B), 2-8 (C) 10: 6 (A), - (B), - (C) 11: 1-2-3-4-10 (A), - (B), 7-8-12 (C) 12: 5-11 (A), 3-10 (B), - (C) 13: 8-12 (A), - (B), 2-3-9 (C) Simple (A+B): 4x1x5x4x2 = 160 x .50 = $80 All A's: 2x1x5x2x2 = 40 x .50 = $20 P4 Grid: 10: 6 (A), - (B), - (C) 11: 1-2-3-4-10 (A), - (B), 7-8-12 (C) 12: 5-11 (A), 3-10 (B), - (C) 13: 8-9-12 (A), 2-3-4 (B), 6-11-13 (C) Simple (A+B): 1x5x4x6 = 120 x .50 = $60 All A's: 1x5x2x3 = 30 x .50 = $15 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 05-03-2019 at 09:06 PM. 
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#2
05-03-2019, 04:39 AM
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Unreal. After going to sleep feeling the forecast appeared hopeful, I awake to thunderstorms. Looks like they'll continue, with some heavy stuff around 7a.
The good news is that it should be over by late morning and Derby Day prospects have improved with some rain possible only later in the day. (After 4p). Turf will likely be yielding/good today, but track could get fast by early in the afternoon. This place has the most volatile and unpredictable weather of anywhere I travel regularly.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#3
05-03-2019, 06:26 AM
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Quote:
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#4
05-03-2019, 07:32 AM
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1st & 4th OFF THE TURF
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
05-03-2019, 09:21 AM
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CD SCR/CHG'S
Program Changes 2019 CHURCHILL DOWNS SPRING MEET April 27 - June 29 Friday, May 3, 2019 TRACK: SLOPPY TURF: GOOD (RACES 6 AND 10)/OFF (RACES 1 AND 4) NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST: Periods of showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11am, then scattered showers between 11am and noon. High near 79. Northeast wind around 7 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Updated: 9:30 a.m. RACE 1 - OFF TURF (moved to one mile on main track) SCRATCH #2 Crupi's Pizza Dom SCRATCH #6 A Man Called Boady SCRATCH #10 Firewater Jake RACE 2 SCRATCH #1 Annathela RACE 3 SCRATCH #3 Lady Kate RACE 4 - OFF TURF (moved to 1 1/16 on main track) SCRATCH #1 Blankenbaker Jockey Change #2 Atthepearlygates - Joel Rosario SCRATCH #5 World Tax War (IRE) SCRATCH #8 Cowboys Dream SCRATCH #9 Valdolobo (IRE) SCRATCH #12 Life Mission Jockey Change #13 Stock Chain - Declan Cannon SCRATCH AE #14 Parade Field SCRATCH AE #15 Value Engineering SCRATCH AE #16 Phantom Currency SCRATCH MTO #18 Silverzar RACE 5 No Changes RACE 6 No Changes RACE 7 SCRATCH #3 Prime Attraction SCRATCH #7 Hawaakom SCRATCH #9 Multiplier RACE 8 SCRATCH #8 Golden Award RACE 9 SCRATCH #1a Funny Duck SCRATCH #2 Rugbyman Jockey Change #3 Cummings - Flavien Prat RACE 10 SCRATCH #1 Bound for Nowhere SCRATCH #2 Mr. Crow Jockey Change #8 Undrafted - Irad Ortiz Jr. RACE 11 SCRATCH AE #15 Dunbar Road SCRATCH AE #16 Point of Honor RACE 12 No Changes RACE 13 SCRATCH #7 Leesburg Lady Jockey Change #12 Club Car - Corey Lanerie SCRATCH #13 Barracuda
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 05-03-2019 at 10:03 AM.
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