Wednesday, 6/2: Nick Tammaro's Belmont Analysis presented by RTN

[Kasept]

BELMONT – 6/3/2020


Race 1 - 1ST: #4 STAR OF THE WEST 2ND: #7 LOST IN ROME 3RD: #10 KILMARKNOCK

Claiming first timers and bringing them back on the dirt has long been a positive move for Rudy Rodriguez (4-
13, $3.00 ROI) and #4 STAR OF THE WEST fits the bill. He gets blinkers as well off a layoff and figures to be
prominent from the start in racing’s return to New York. #7 LOST IN ROME made a meaningful late move up
the inside last time out and now cuts back in distance after successfully handling the mile. In light once again
with the double bug astride, he stands to benefit if the pace heats up early on today. #10 KILMARKNOCK is
back in for a tag after chasing the pace and weakening late against MSW foes last time out. He was clearly
more effective sprinting in the past and has the strongest finisher in this riding colony aboard in Joel Rosario.

Race 2 - 1ST: #2 SMILE BRYAN 2ND: #8 BRAY 3RD: #1 MANDATE

#2 SMILE BRYAN stretches out off a strong effort chasing the pace going shorter at Churchill. The distance
should be well within his scope and the lack of a significant amount of speed in here will help his cause. His
lone prior turf outing was quite strong and portends improvement here on the surface switch. #8 BRAY returns
off a layoff after showing promise late in his 3YO season. He is a one-run closer who overcame a soft early
clip on debut, then ran into a buzz saw in his 2 nd start. Trainer Christophe Clement does well off the layoff and
the worktab indicates this son of Shakin It Up is ready to roll. #1 MANDATE rallied stoutly into a soft pace last
time out to narrowly miss a placing despite checking in 5 th . He has improved by leaps and bounds since
returning to turf earlier this year and should be a major player if there’s any pace to speak of in this spot.

Race 3 - 1ST: #2 PRISONER 2ND: #3 FAUCI 3RD: #1 GAROPPOLO

#2 PRISONER is a son of Violence, whose progeny win on debut as 2YOs at a 21% clip. This colt worked a
furlong in :10 at OBS in March and has 6 siblings who’ve won from 7 to race. His dam was also victorious on
debut. That, coupled with him hailing from the barn of Todd Pletcher, is enough to land here. #3 FAUCI is an
aptly named son of Malibu Moon who is clearly training forwardly for his unveiling. This barn’s debuting
runners often show a tremendous amount of speed and this colt was well fancied at the Keeneland sale last
fall. #1 GAROPPOLO is by freshman sire Outwork and he worked very sharply at the OBS March sale, going
a quarter in :21 and 1/5 while moving very sweetly over the synthetic surface. He drew poorly and trainer Kelly
Breen has done poorly with 2YO firsters at Belmont over the last 5 years. That’s why he’s the 3 rd option in this
sextet.

Race 4 - 1ST: #3 BUSINESS CYCLE 2ND: #7 MONEYMEISTER 3RD: #9 LUCKY SIX

#3 BUSINESS CYCLE is back in the care of Gary Gullo off a trio of runner-up finishes earlier this year. He
cuts back in distance today and figures to get a strong pace to run at in the late stages. The re-claim is
encouraging and that’s enough to land here in a contentious affair. #7 MONEYMEISTER is in light with
Heman Harkie aboard, which is hardly a positive, but this son of Bodemeister improved steadily during the
winter before the COVID-induced respite. He can position himself prominently early with his tactical speed,
and his form before being sidelined was very strong. #9 LUCKY SIX is the main speed in this bulky field and
has an aggressive pilot aboard today. He will be dangerous if able to get clear, and this barn has quietly been
on a tear so far in 2020.

Race 5 - 1ST: #10 SARATOGA LOVE 2ND: #1 STRONGERTHANUKNOW 3RD: #9 FRACTORZATION

#10 SARATOGA LOVE returns off a layoff for her 2020 debut for Christophe Clement, who is 34% with turfers
coming back from 180+ day breaks at distances up to a mile ($2.42 ROI). She ran a bang-up race on debut
before faltering in her 2 nd start, and she ran into some trip-related issues in that late November tilt. A positive
jockey change will help her cause and there should be some pace for her to run at in here. #1
STRONGERTHANUKNOW made out poorly at the post position draw as she returns off a break for trainer
Jorge Duarte, Jr. She showed potential as a juvenile and has good early zip. The inside post forces jockey
Irad Ortiz’s hand but that may work to her advantage given the importance of speed sprinting on the grass. #9
FRACTORZATION is back on turf, the surface over which she nearly broke her maiden at 2 nd asking. She is a
pace player in here and has a pilot on board that’s more likely to have her motivated right from the outset.

Race 6 - 1ST: #3 MADITA 2ND: #1 PASSIVE INVESTING 3RD: #6 FASHION’S STAR

#3 MADITA returns off the bench for Arnaud Delacour, whose bar is 27% with turf routers off 180+ day breaks
over the last 5 years ($2.05 ROI). This German-bred landed in a salty N1X in her 2 nd outing in North America
last year and faces a weaker group today. Third-place finisher Altea is multiple graded stakes placed and
runner-up Pivotal Connection came back and won her next start before narrowly missing in a graded stake.
This bunch is solid, but not quite of that caliber. #1 PASSIVE INVESTING returns from a break after clearing
the maiden ranks at 3 rd asking. The field she beat that day was somewhat suspect, and this is an above
average N1X group. Trainer Chad Brown does well with layoff returnees and she figures to be a late player
today. #6 FASHION’S STAR made a positive impression in her North American debut, rallying into a slow
pace to snag the place dough. That field at Tampa Bay Downs was far weaker than what she meets today, but
this gal has upside for her Hall of Fame trainer.

Race 7 - 1ST: #9 LORENZEN 2ND: #12 BOX OF RAIN 3RD: #8 KABOB

#9 LORENZEN is one of two main contenders dropping in for a tag along with #12 BOX OF RAIN. Each is
also a reported new gelding off of mid-range layoffs. The former has shown some promise in two dirt outings
and now gets a top pilot while facing weaker. Box of Rain ran poorly twice during a stretch where trainer
Jeremiah Englehart struggled mightily at Aqueduct. He will benefit from the drop, and the ultimate equipment
change figures to do him some good. #8 KABOB is a firster from a capable barn and is a half to Grade I
winner El Deal. Progeny of Overanalyze win on debut at a rate of 13% and the worktab looks formidable. He
figures to be a big price and there’s plenty to like.

Race 8 - 1ST: #12 CROSS BORDER 2ND: #10 VALUE PROPOSITION 3RD: #11 HIDDEN SCROLL

#12 CROSS BORDER cuts back in distance for trainer Mike Maker after performing well going long on the
Gulfstream weeds. He has been effective at this distance in the past and should get a good pace setup this
afternoon. The outside post is a plus at this one mile configuration to boot. #10 VALUE PROPOSITION
showed potential as a 3YO last year in 3 outings, and now returns for the nation’s top trainer. He is versatile
and can be a late threat with the right trip. While it’s unclear just where he stacks up against tougher N2X
company such as this, he merits long consideration as a win candidate. #11 HIDDEN SCROLL changes
surfaces for trainer Bill Mott and is out of a dam who has been moderately productive. His 2 nd dam was a turf
stakes winner and she produced graded stakes winner Starformer, who was also trained by Mott. This colt has
never reached the potential induced by his scintillating debut win, and his trainer is seemingly waving the white
flag today.

Race 9 - 1ST: #3 GOT STORMY 2ND: #1 RUSHING FALL 3RD: #2 FIFTY FIVE

#3 GOT STORMY improved in her 2 nd outing of 2020, seemingly erasing some of the doubts caused by her
troubling seasonal debut. She is versatile enough to stay close to the likely favorite on the inside, and this
gal’s best efforts of 2019 were far better than anything #1 RUSHING FALL has put forth at any point in his
career. That daughter of More Than Ready has had a very successful career, but has also never overcome
adversity of any sort, and ended 2019 with a whimper. She should be forwardly placed from the start today
and that’ll give her the jump on her main rival. #2 FIFTY FIVE is a one-run closer who will be an increased
threat if the pace materializes in here. She has been at her best against weaker in the past, but should be in
position to save ground and fire late today.

Race 10 - 1ST: #3 VENTUS 2ND: #7 JUSTICE OF WAR 3RD: #1 IN THE LOOP

#3 VENTUS returns off a claim for trainer Rudy Rodriguez and drops in class. He has been effective against
much tougher in the past, and Rodriguez is 33% with runners first off the claim returning in 45+ days ($2.21
ROI). This gelding is versatile and gets in light with the bug boy aboard in here. #7 JUSTICE OF WAR is the
one to beat on a major class drop for the high percentage barn of Linda Rice. This son of Strong Mandate took
a step back off his maiden win and fits nicely at this class level. He should be in stalk and pounce range today
as the likely favorite. #1 IN THE LOOP is a major player from the outset today and is another taking a major
class drop. The layoff is disconcerting, but this son of Super Saver debuted strongly, and he figures to be a
square price in this bulky field.

[ontheoutside]

i love the reads from both nick and steve

hoping we see this alot more from nick

thank you for the time

[Alabama Stakes]

Going for 5 straight winners....

[ontheoutside]

took your top 2 pks foe early and late pk 5 hit first 181 lost 2nd
invest 16 on early invest 16 on late plus 149

also with the hot bet steves a b for 72 so no matter

plus 45 for day happy thank u both

[HPFridays]

Solid picks and analysis from Nick and Steve, as usual.