Friday, 6/26: Nick Tammaro's Belmont Analysis presented by RTN

[Kasept]

BELMONT – 6/26/2020
Nick Tammaro
@NTamm1215



Race 1- 1 st #4 STAR OF THE WEST 2 ND #1 BIG BOY MO 3 RD #5 CAUSE FOR ACTION

#4 STAR OF THE WEST won the meet opener in authoritative fashion, taking command shortly after the break
and never looking back. He now gets a rider change to the top pilot at the stand and looms the one to catch
again for a barn that is 17% with claimers on dirt coming off maiden wins ($2.60 ROI). #1 BIG BOY MO beat a
weak field last time out to break his maiden, but it was how he did it. He broke horribly then worked his way
past every rival en route to victory. His rider from that afternoon opted to ride this guy instead of the top pick.
#5 CAUSE FOR ACTION drops in class as he changes surfaces. He was competitive on dirt previously at
Parx and can be in an ideal stalking spot behind the top pick.

Race 2- 1 st #1 KILMARKNOCK 2 ND #6 LOST IN ROME 3 RD #3 COBBLE HILL

#1 KILMARKNOCK did the majority of the dirty work last time and now figures to stalk the expected
pacesetters this afternoon. The hot riding Luis Saez gets aboard today and the inside post is far from
detrimental with a couple of speedsters lined up to his outside. #6 LOST IN ROME bested the top pick last
time out when he checked in 4 th behind a runaway winner. He can benefit if the pace heats up in this spot, and
it figures to thanks to #2 CARTERS GOT SASS and #5 J’S WARRIOR. #3 COBBLE HILL is the expected
heavy favorite here based on him getting up for second last time out. That was a garbage time move in a race
where he never threatened the winner, and he’s likely to be horribly overbet in here.

Race 3- 1 st #1 GOOD GOVERNANCE 2 ND #3 KID BOURBON 3 RD #5 PERSONAL TIME
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#1 GOOD GOVERNANCE is clearly the one to beat as he returns from a lengthy layoff. He turned heads with
a tremendous debut score and then narrowly missed graded stake glory at second asking. Over the last 6
months trainer Chad Brown is 10-28 with turf routers off 180+ day breaks ($2.68 ROI) and this 3 rd timer is
poised to clear the N1X ranks. #3 KID BOURBON returns to turf and ran a solid race in his lone prior grass
try. He made a nifty late move into a hot pace while second best behind a handy winner, so there’s plenty to
like. The pace edge he could have on the top pick is notable. #5 PERSONAL TIME is likely to be up against it
pace-wise but has run well with no setup in the past. His best makes him competitive and he is a reasonable
horse to use as a backup on a Pick 5.

Race 4- 1 st #3 FIRST APPEAL 2 ND #11 TELETYPE 3 RD #4 SANITY

#3 FIRST APPEAL returns on short rest after finishing with interest a week ago against tougher. This is a soft
field, even for this level, and there’s enough speed signed on to setup her late run. All signs point to her being
a very tough favorite to beat at a short price. #11 TELETYPE is a threat to go the distance today given she is
the speed of the speed in her second outing off a layoff. She got involved in a very hot pace last time out on a
turf course that had received a good bit of moisture. An aggressive ride will help as the inside paths on the
inner turf course were best yesterday with the temporary rails down. #4 SANITY takes a sizable class drop for
her NY debut. Trainer Kelly Breen is 1-32 on the turf at NYRA facilities over the last 5 years, and this gal has
not been competitive since joining his barn. She is the 3 rd choice in a race with few win candidates.

Race 5- 1 ST #1 BLUE BELT 2 ND #5 JAVELIN 3 RD #3 BLINDED VISION

#1 BLUE BELT was the only pace participant to be in the mix at the end last time, as the 1-2 finishers came
from deep in the pack. He has the speed to protect the inside from his rail draw and the main speed is very
suspect. That should put this guy in position to grab the baton after 5 furlongs or so. #5 JAVELIN bested the
top pick last time out when he rallied for the place dough. He retains the meet’s top pilot for a barn that is
looking to get off the duck. The price you’ll get is hardly appealing, but he is a win candidate. #3 BLINDED
VISION is the one to catch as he drops in class 2 nd off a layoff following a poor effort at Churchill. He has
clearly had physical problems over the last couple of years, but having a sizable pace edge earns him a
second look.

Race 6- 1 st #1 NO SALT 2 ND #6 MUNDACIOUS 3 RD #11 VOLIERO

#1 NO SALT is by 15% turf debut sire Tonalist and has plenty of pedigree for the grass on his dam side. He
was bet heavily on debut sprinting on the dirt at Saratoga and will offer some value today for his Hall of Fame
trainer. The experienced turf runners are unappealing and a fresh face is necessary. #6 MUNDACIOUS is out
of a stakes caliber mare on turf and is kin to multiple grass winner Cliffs of Dover. He faltered last time out
despite a perfect trip on the main track and can have new life on the weeds. His tactical speed is a plus. #11
VOLIERO ran the best race of the June 4 alums given he made up ground from a bad outside post off a layoff.
In a race with an honest pace he can improve, especially given the outside post is far less problematic going
this trip.

Race 7- 1 st #1 THE J Y 2 ND #9 RINALDI 3 RD #8 GHOST GIANT

Trainer Mark Hennig has had some success with layoff returnees on the lawn and #1 THE J Y fits that bill.
He’s been at his best off of the bench, has an ideal inside post and figures to be a square price in here. His
versatility in terms of running style is a major plus as well. #9 RINALDI is clearly the one to beat in his return
to the NY bred ranks for H. James Bond. He was so impressive in a NY bred stake last year that he got a try
against open company and this race fits him well given the presence of only one other pace type. #8 GHOST
GIANT has only gone this trip once as he finished his 2019 campaign with a game win over the top pick. He’s
in a new barn now but Jeremiah Englehart clearly understands this guy is better going long.

Race 8- 1 st #1 HANNAH’S SMILE 2 ND #5 MENTALITY 3 RD #7 SARATOGA TREASURE

#1 HANNAH’S SMILE is taking a massive class drop and is back at her ideal distance. The inside post will
help her chances given her tactical speed, and she should have a clear target early in #5 MENTALITY. Both
will be square prices as alternatives to #4 KID IS FROSTY. If ‘Hannah can work out a trip she will be
dangerous. The aforementioned Mentality is the one to catch, and that is always notable when talking about
turf sprints. If left to her own devices on the front end, she’s a clear threat to go the distance. #7 SARATOGA
TREASURE is another getting serious class relief who hs good back form. A stakes winner last year, this gal
is at her best in the late stage, so expect to see her then if at all.

Race 9- 1 st #3 HAYEZHEE 2 ND #7 QUEENTIGUA 3 RD #14 CRICK

#3 HAYEZHEE is a major pace player who raced against the grain of the Aqueduct dirt when last seen in late
February. There’s some other speed in here drawn outside of this son of Haynesfield, but the larger group is
weaker than par for this level. #7 QUEENTIGUA improved off the layoff last time out to grab the place dough
at a huge price. Staying a tad closer to the pace that day obviously helped and she stands to move forward
second off the bench. #14 CRICK has drawn a less than stellar post position, but improved when last seen.
The pace in the race he exits was fast and that prompts many to assume he can stay closer early.\

BELMONT MEET STATS: 140-29-20-16 $168.90