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#1
07-05-2020, 07:42 AM
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Sunday, 7/5: Nick Tammaro's Belmont Analysis presented by RTN
BELMONT – 7/5/2020
Race 1- 1 st #7 MOSIENKO 2 ND #3 ENOUGH LOVE 3 RD #2 CHASING LOSSES #7 MOSIENKO is back on dirt after chasing a fast pace and weakening late last time out on the lawn. She has speed and can use it here, as this event is short on early zip. The outside post will enable Joel Rosario to stalk and pounce. #3 ENOUGH LOVE is the horse to beat on paper based on her solid finish last time out against similar foes three weeks ago. The winner and runner-up from that race have since returned to run well, and this gal figures to be set for improvement 2 nd off a layoff. #2 CHASING LOSSES was claimed by an outfit that has horrific numbers in these scenarios. She is worthy of a look, though, because of her early speed and the cozy inside post. If she gets to the front, she is a threat to go the distance. Race 2- 1 st #5 TOO SEXY 2 ND #6 RISK MODEL 3 RD #2 SING ME HOME #5 TOO SEXY was competitive against a much tougher MSW field last time out and now makes her 2 nd start off a layoff. She has more speed than she showed last time out, so look for Joel Rosario to get her more involved early in this spot. She looms a prohibitive favorite. #6 RISK MODEL has no pedigree for turf, but no trainer in the world wins more races with these types than Chad Brown. She showed enough on debut to be given another shot on dirt, so we know she has some talent. Whether the grass will prove greener is the question. #2 SING ME HOME is a firster by Muhaarar, who has had limited progeny start in America. She is out of a dam that’s kin to the dam of Without Parole, a top shelf miler from these connections. That’s enough to give her a second look. Race 3- 1 st #5 HEIGHT 2 ND #1 FED FUNDS 3 RD #3 TRI SAINT LORENZO For a trainer that has a number of moderate stats, Bill Mott is 26% with maidens dropping in for tags in dirt sprints ($3.86 ROI). That’s the case with #5 HEIGHT, the expected favorite in this subpar 30k maiden event. He was competitive in two tries on dirt at Saratoga last year and now changes surfaces with a 2020 outing behind him. That should have him ready for this heat. #1 FED FUNDS is a second timer who debued against tougher on a wet track last December. He goes out for a barn that is having a strong meet, and this son of Lemon Drop Kid figures to show more speed with blinkers going on and the bug boy astride. #3 TRI SAINT LORENZO was woeful last time out, squandering an enormous pace setup before rounding out the superfecta. He will need the pace to heat up in here, and for the top pick to falter to make an impact. Race 4- 1 st #7 BRAY 2 ND #9 TORRES DEL PAINE 3 RD #10 MANDATE #7 BRAY hung last time out against tougher and is now back in for a tag. He’s spotted where he belongs class-wise and figures to get enough pace to run at in this spot. Look for him late as the likely favorite given the strength of the connections here. #9 TORRES DEL PAINE didn’t have much to offer last time out on the class drop and now goes 2 nd off a short break. He fits at this class level and can be dangerous from a bit closer to the pace, which he figures to be in this spot. #10 MANDATE was behind Bray when they squared off in the 2 nd race on opening day. He was a dull 4 th that afternoon and will need to improve moving back into the claiming ranks. This son of Blame will also need more pace help than either of the top two picks. Race 5- 1 ST #5 FAST GORDON 2 ND #12 BREED’S HILL 3 RD #3 KID CHOCOLATE Weary handicappers will find few clues in here, but #5 FAST GORDON has enough to offer to get the nod. He’s by 14% turf debut sire Alpha and is out of a dam who won on the turf. The price tag here was gaudy, and that had a lot to do with a quick workout earned over a synthetic surface. The quick move to claimers is hardly encouraging, but this barn spots horses where they can be effective. #12 BREED’S HILL is new to the barn of Jeremiah Englehart as he returns from a lengthy layoff. He showed life on the Polytrack at Woodbine last year and that often portends success on turf. He is drawn favorably and has the speed to be dangerous from the outset. #3 KID CHOCOLATE retains Manny Franco off a modest effort last time when coming back from the sidelines. He is a late runner who has shown flashes of ability on the lawn, and he undoubtedly faces the weakest competition yet on the weeds.  Race 6- 1 st #6 RIKEN 2 ND #2 FEVOLA 3 RD #7 COACH VILLA It looks like there are 4 win candidates here and #6 RIKEN is likely to be the best price of that foursome. He exits a pair of wins, the latest of which came against N3L sellers here on opening week. He grabbed control of that race at the start, set a fast pace and held on gamely. If he gets loose here, and he is supposed to, then he might forget to quit once again. #2 FEVOLA is going to be a big favorite as he returns from a smashing maiden win earned in late February at Aqueduct. This barn has a horrible ROI with dirt sprinters exiting maiden wins ($1.01) and he’ll offer no value. Use defensively in the Pick 5. #7 COACH VILLA figures to get an ideal stalking trip from the outside today. He won last time out against weaker and now returns to the level at which he was unsuccessful two starts back. He gets the leading rider today and that’ll drive his price down, but he makes too much sense to be overlooked in here. Race 7- 1 st #8 SHE’S GOT YOU 2 ND #6 STONE TORNADO 3 RD #9 CHALEUR #8 SHE’S GOT YOU returns off a lengthy layoff in her North American debut for trainer Chad Brown. She will be treated with Lasix for the first time and has faced some top flight competition overseas. Brown is good with these types and this distance should suit her well. That’s enough to give her the nod over stablemate #6 STONE TORNADO. That daughter of Toronado moved first into a fast pace last time out before being overhauled late. It’s discouraging that she missed second in that event, but she was asked to make a prolonged move. Whether she’ll move forward second off the bench is the big question, and she will have to run better today to get top honors. #9 CHALEUR was a game 3 rd last time out in her North American debut, as she contested a hot pace before weakening late. The cutback to a mile is likely to help her cause and her ample early speed is a positive as well. Race 8- 1 st #8 TALE OF THE UNION 2 ND #2 BIG THICKET 3 RD #7 QUICKFLASH #8 TALE OF THE UNION goes 3 rd off a lengthy layoff and exits a tremendous effort when 3 rd against similar N1X foes last time out. He broke very poorly from the gate that afternoon before rushing up into contention. While he tired late to finish third, he ran a phenomenal race given all that happened in the opening furlong. A clean trip makes him impossible to beat today. #2 BIG THICKET was victorious last time out against weaker and now goes 2 nd off a claim by Rudy Rodriguez. This son of Union Rags will be overbet based on his recent win and Irad Ortiz, Jr. staying aboard but he is the next likeliest winner after the top pick. #7 QUICKFLASH loomed boldly inside the quarter pole last time out when it looked like he was on the way to his second career win. He has the speed to be within range from the start and has moved forward with each passing start. Race 9- 1 st #7 FRONT RUN THE FED 2 ND #6 MAJESTIC DUNHILL 3 RD #2 DELAWARE #7 FRONT RUN THE FED needs firm turf and will get it today off a dull effort on the return from the sidelines for trainer Chad Brown. He hardly disgraced himself last time out and returns to a trip that yielded a 13+ length score against N1X foes last year. He looks to be training forwardly for this engagement. #6 MAJESTIC DUNHILL was an unlucky loser last time in the First Defence, as he was herded in late and lost some momentum. He took to the turf nicely on the return to it and should be a late threat once again. The edge he has on some of the other closers is that he can be a tad more forwardly placed, just as he was last time. #2 DELAWARE got into some traffic trouble in the aforementioned First Defence last time out and now looks to improve second off the ship to the US. He retains Joel Rosario and is likely to get a cleaner run today against weaker competition than he faced here last month. Race 10- 1 st #6 MORE LIKE IT 2 ND #8 STRIKING CAUSEWAY 3 RD #2 BOOM BOOM KABOOM #6 MORE LIKE IT ran into traffic trouble in crunch time lsat time out and now goes 2 nd off a layoff for trainer Bruce Brown. He finished with interest despite the trouble that afternoon and should get a strong pace to run at again. Hopefully his trip will be without issue as well. #8 STRIKING CAUSEWAY is the horse to beat given he set the fast pace in the race More Like It also exits. This son of Giant’s Causeway improved on the move to turf and nearly sealed the deal after setting fast early fractions. He’ll need to avoid a strenuous early pace battle in here. #2 BOOM BOOM KABOOM will be wound tighter for his 2 nd start off a layoff today and he finished with some interest last time when just behind More Like It. He can save ground from the inside today and is another who’ll benefit if there’s a strong pace. BELMONT MEET STATS: 199-48-31-24 $281.30
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 07-05-2020 at 08:08 AM. 
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#3
07-05-2020, 04:00 PM
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I'll take a shot at this..
Bel 7 Pk4 5,6,8,9/2,8/2,3,6,7,10/1,4,5 6,7,8,10
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#5
07-05-2020, 06:18 PM
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Quote:
Good luck Billy Last edited by Sethcarter : 07-05-2020 at 06:30 PM.
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#6
07-05-2020, 04:11 PM
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Quote:
Thanks, Nick. Wasn't fully on my radar as a win but I read your analysis and took another look with the way he ran. Not a huge score but one I would have missed without the tap on the shoulder you provided.
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