7/11: Keeneland (Blue Grass Day)

[Kasept]

KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #2 Kid Shelleen 12-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Civil Servant 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Copper King 5-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Looking At Liberty 3-1 WON ($8.20)


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #4 Snake Doctor 8-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Therideofalifetime 3-1 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Swill 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Palazzi 6-1 5th


3rd: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 She Can't Sing 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Crown Jewel 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Tortuga 10-1 11th
Super Add: #5 Perfect Happiness 8-1 2nd


4th: Appalachian (G2), 3yo-F, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Alms 6-5 3rd
Next Best: #3 Evil Lyn 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Enola Gay 6-1 WON ($12.60)


5th: Madison (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Guarana deserving even money fave noting consistently strong efforts. Primary rivals like Sally's Curlin, Mia Mischief, Bell's the One & Amy's Challenge all have races that contend. The interesting price is Wildwood's Beauty (20-1) who hasn't missed an exacta in any of her 13 dirt races for Scott Becker & Bill Stiritz. Seconf off the break while 7/3-4-0 at seven eighths, she enters off an eye-popping :57.3 drill on 7/3. Stalker can chase favorite home and juice exotics a little..

Most Likely: #5 Guarana 1-1 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #2 Wildwood's Beauty 20-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Mia Mischief 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Sally's Curlin 10-1 5th


Caveman 'Action' P5:

1-2-4-6-8 w/ 4-5-6-9-10 w/ 2-3-5-9 w/ 4 w/ 5 = 5x5x4x1x1 = 100 x .50 = $50


P4 Grid:

2: 4-5-6-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 2-3-9 (A), 1-5-10 (B), - (C)
4: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 5 (A), 2-7 (B), 3-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x6x1x3 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 5x3x1x1 = $15 ($7.50 for .50)
C Backup: $22.50 (5x3x1x3 = 45 x .50)


6th: Shakertown (G2), 3+, 5.5f-T (X-C P5/Leg A, All Stakes P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Yikes.. Terrific group with countless possibilities. Taking the most consistent ones that have current form. Adding #2 Wildman Jack & #7 Fast Boat (best last efforts) to the multi includes..

Best Value: #10 Totally Boss 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Extravagant Kid 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Bound for Nowhere 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #9 Texas Wedge 6-1 10th


7th: Ashland (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

If Venetian gets away with easy opening splits, she'll be tough to reel in. Speech and Castellano seek a stalk and pounce trip. Envoutante and Bonny South feel like clunk up exotic candidates..

Most Likely: #6 Speech 2-1 WON ($10.00)
Next Best: #2 Venetian Harbor 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Bonny South 5-1 4th


8th: Jenny Wiley (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (X-C P5/Leg C, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Toinette 5-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Rushing Fall 6-5 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Juliet Foxtrot 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Secret Message 15-1 6th


9th: Blue Grass (G1), 3yo, 9f (X-C P5/Leg D, DD, Hi-5)

Several late developing/forward going types involved and a delightful wagering opportunity with the filly (who can obviously win) taking a lot of money. Arky-bred Man in the Can just keeps getting better and Art Collector feels like a horse-of-a-lifetime for thoroughly capable Tom Drury..

Best Value: #5 Man in the Can 10-1 13th
Next Best: #3 Art Collector 5-1 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #7 Swiss Skydiver 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Rushie 5-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

5: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1-8-10 (A), - (B), 2-7-9 (C)
7: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-4-8 (A), 1-6-7 (B), - (C)
9: 3-5 (A), 7-10 (B), 1-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x2x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
C Backups: $36 ($18 with 2-7-9) + ($18 with 1-12)


P4 Grid:

6: 1-8-10 (A), - (B), 2-7-9 (C)
7: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-4-8 (A), 1-6-7 (B), - (C)
9: 3-5 (A), 7-10 (B), 1-4-8-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
C Backups: $54 ($18 with 2-7-9) + ($36 with 1-4-8-12)


Cross Country P5 Grid:

KEE 6: 1-8-10 (A), - (B), 2-7-9 (C)
DEL 7: 5-9 (A), - (B), 10 (C)
KEE 8: 4-8 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C)
KEE 9: 3-5 (A), 7-10 (B), 1-4-8-12 (C)
BEL 9: 3-4 (A), 5-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x2x4x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 3x2x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24


10th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Romantic Pursuit 7-5 3rd
Best Value: #4 Coco Channel 15-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Mighty Scarlett 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Speedy Solution 15-1 WON ($26.40)


P4 Grid:

7: 2-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-4-8 (A), 1-6-7 (B), - (C)
9: 3-5-7 (A), 1-10-12 (B), 4-8 (C)
10: 3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
C Backup: $12 (with 4-8)


Good luck!
Steve

[moses]

Good luck Steve.

Race 10, I think it should be 3 & 4 as your top picks, not 2 & 3.

Also, glad to see you have Wildman Jack as a C as I'm not crazy about him and not sure about that morning line. Timeform has said that his most recent race was timed wrong and that his figures are much lower for that race than initially provided. Not saying he can't win but that race is probably not as quite good as it looks.

[Kasept]

KEE SCR/CHG'S

[cassie]

that 13 in the 6th at keeneland cost u aton of money by a bob of the head

[jms62]

Originally Posted by cassie

that 13 in the 6th at keeneland cost u aton of money by a bob of the head

Thanks for pulling the scab off.

[moses]

Originally Posted by cassie

that 13 in the 6th at keeneland cost u aton of money by a bob of the head

In fairness, the Pick 5 payout was fairly weak at $360 and Steve should have gotten back $36 in consolation payouts at least.

When I first saw Steve’s grid, I was surprised to see him so deep in the Jenny Wiley and relatively thin in the Shakertown. In hindsight, even though he got beaten by a nose in the Shakertown, that was a reasonable way to approach it. If he nabs the 10 in that race and Jolie Olimpica held on in the Jenny Wiley, probably a much nicer payout than $360. But what can you do? This game is tough.

Edit: I wasn’t looking at the CC or Pick 4. That is definitely tough but still think the strategy would have paid off much more with a little luck.

Also - does Keeneland not have a camera at the finish line? I don’t think I ever saw a photo of that finish.