KD

cal828 · #1 08-31-2020, 11:55 AM

Well, I guess we know where we'll be playing this weekend so there should be Peace in the Derby Trail Valley. Raining like crazy here in Hot Water town and the weather ap on my I Phone says rain for the rest of the week, but clearing on Saturday. I hope that is correct. Rain for the Derby could have major implications although it obviously didn't hurt last weekend. I am sitting on go and ready for the PPs to come out.

I don't usually do all that well in the Derby moneywise and probably lost my best score last year with the infamous DQ, but win or lose, it's the Derby and hard not to get excited.

We do get a big $200 wad to bet, right?

JolyB · #2 08-31-2020, 12:42 PM

Cal, we do get a $200 bankroll for the Derby Day contest. We traditionally play Churchill Downs, with some discussion over how many of what I think will be a 14 race card to include. They seem to make the card longer and longer each year. Decisions like that are why we pay DonGuido the big bucks.

In the past, the Oaks/Derby double has been a permitted ROI wager. Again, Don can provide clarity on whether we can do that this year.

I suspect that many of us already have some strong opinions about the Derby and are eagerly awaiting the post position draw with the hope that our selection doesn't draw the dreaded #1 post. With an anticipated field of around 17 and a gate that will accommodate 20, you would think that the problem

of the #1 post could be alleviated by moving everyone over a few slots, but that just my simplistic thinking.

If you are eager to have a go at the pp's, here's a link to some that aren't Formulators, but are better than nothing at all

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...rformances_123

cal828 · #3 08-31-2020, 01:14 PM

According to Steve's post on Derby Probables, they are moving over a couple of slots with the inside horse going from gate 3, I think.

JolyB · #4 08-31-2020, 01:18 PM

Make that 18 entrants, I think. Mr. Big News is the big news today. No need for any qualifying points. Aren't you glad we all paid such close attention to the points for so long.

cal828 · #5 08-31-2020, 02:37 PM

18 horses. I can see myself using reams of paper trying to cover all the possibilities in the exotics. I'll probably key on Tiz and he will stumble out of the gate or the track will come up wet and all my wagering creations will crash in flames.

Course, it might be that rain might throw a little doubt into the outcome and make his odds a bit better than I anticipate that
they will be on a dry track.

JolyB · #6 08-31-2020, 03:18 PM

Let's see - you're probably keying on Tiz; I'm probably keying on Tiz; the guy down the street who likes to talk about racing when I get my morning paper and he walks his dog is probably keying on Tiz. How in the world does one ever get value if the entire world is betting the same way?

Unless you take a contrarian approach, don't see that the win or exacta pools will offer any value, despite the 18 horse field. Perhaps the tri pool won't be pounded quite as heavily because there are so many more mathematical possibilities.

cal828 · #7 08-31-2020, 03:57 PM

I read on DRF that he may be the biggest fave since Arazi. Course I think he's done way more to prove himself than Arazi ever did. Been a long time since Arazi, but as I recall, his claim to fame was winning the BC Juvenile. I think they said he went off at 1-9.

You are right though, he will be a huge favorite and yes myself and the rest of the racing public will be picking him, but as we've seen fairly regularly this year, unexpected things happen. Might be a contrarian's dream. Cruzan and Miz Ruffian and Roamin will likely not be picking him and they may prove to be right.

It may turn out to be a losing proposition, but I can't recall too many times that the race was a bust for the bettors and I doubt that it will turn out that way this year, but this is a year of firsts, so who knows?