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#1
11-15-2006, 05:37 AM
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P6-FEST: Brad Free on HOL
The biggest of Wednesday's three carryovers is Hollywood's $540,000k pot which will likely press towards $1.7 million by the time the third race runs to start the sequence...
DRF's West Coast guru Brad Free joined us on ATRAB Tuesday to go over the sextet, and we're happy to offer his tab as something of a Derby Trail exclusive. Free offered a 'partner ticket' for $840 that uses 7 horses in the difficult first leg, as well as a budget play ($120) that singles the Marques entry in that race. Below Brad's suggestion(s), are my own view of the HOL card and a P6 version for $192... In addition to the big prize Wednesday, TVG also sweetens the deal with 2 guaranteed P4's (R3-6 & R5-8)... No shortage of action for serious players today! SELECTIONS -- Hollywood Park, P6 (Races 3-8) Brad Free's P6 suggestion: 3rd: MDN CLM, 8.5f (P6, DD, P3, TVG $150k Guaranteed P4) #1-1a Marques entry 6-5 #3 Ascoreinglady 10-1 #4 California Laura 8-1 #5 Velocity Cat 10-1 #6 Truly Madera 5-1 #7 Seeing Grace 10-1 #8 Classy Dish 4-1 4th: CLM, 8.5f-T (DD, P3) #3 Ferndale Sal 9-5 #4 Pistol Creek 2-1 #7 Full In 4-1 5th: CLM, 7f (P3, DD, TVG $150k Guaranteed P4) #8 Tommyland 8-1 6th: MDN CLM, 6.5f (DD, P3) #2 Sanmali 6-1 #8 Palm Breeze 5-2 Scratched 7th: ALW/N$Y, 7f (DD) #1 Romeo Plus 6-1 #2 Buckland Manor 5-2 #3 Truly a Judge 3-1 #4 Harvard Avenue 2-1 #5 Gotaghostofachance 3-1 8th: Cal-bred MSW, 1m-T #2 She's All Magic 7-2 #9 Imagine 4-1 The P6 Play(s): Big ticket option: 7x3x1x1x5x2 = 210 x $2 = $420 (7 horses in R3) Budget option 1x3x1x1x5x2 = 30 x $2 = $60 (singling #1e in R3) Steve's Hollywood Selections (Race numbers in red = Superfecta events) 3rd: MDN CLM, 8.5f (P6, DD, P3, TVG $150k Guaranteed P4) 1. #1-1a Marques entry 6-5 WON $3.00 $2.20 $2.10 2. #8 Classy Dish 4-1 3rd A. #5 Velocity Cat 10-1 4th B. #6 Truly Madera 5-1 2nd EX BX/KY: $7.40 ($1) TRI BX/KY: $17.10 ($1) SUPER BX/KY: $86.40 ($1) 4th: CLM, 8.5f-T (DD, P3) 1. #7 Full In 4-1 WON $12.40 $6.00 $2.60 2. #3 Ferndale Sal 9-5 3rd 3. #4 Pistol Creek 2-1 2nd DD: $21.60 ($2) EX BX/KY: $23.10 ($1) TRI BX/KY $55.80 ($1) 5th: CLM, 7f (P3, DD, TVG $150k Guaranteed P4) 1. #2 High Z 15-1 2. #4 Riley's Life 6-1 WON A. #8 Tommyland 8-1 B. #5 I B Bad 2-1 2nd LONGSHOT ALERT: #11 Scratched EX BX: $14.40 ($1) DD: $74.20 ($2) P3: $95.60 ($1) 6th: MDN CLM, 6.5f (DD, P3) 1. #8 Scratched 2. #6 Scratched A. #2 Sanmali 6-1 2nd B. #3 Jump Rope Girl 3-1 WON C. #1 Mahalo Lani 5-1 DD: $40.60 ($2) EX BX: $16.50 ($1) P3: $185.50 ($1) 7th: ALW/N$Y, 7f (DD) 1. #5 Gotaghostofachance 3-1 2. #3 Truly a Judge 3-1 3. #4 Harvard Avenue 2-1 WON DD: $20.00 ($2) P3: $69.60 ($1) 8th: Cal-bred MSW, 1m-T 1. #2 She's All Magic 7-2 2. #9 Imagine 4-1 2nd A. #8 Valley Storm 4-1 WON B. #4 Proud Cecy 8-1 <$200 Pick 6 Play: 3: 1e-8 4: 3-7 5: 2-4-5-8 6: 2-3 7: 5 8: 2-8-9 2x2x4x2x1x3 = 96 x $2 = $192 5 of 6 pays $144.80 <$50 P4 Plays: There was NO Early P4 here.. DRF Quick Sheet had one listed.. Sorry.. 5: 2-5-8-11 6: 2-3 7: 3-5 8: 2-8-9 4x2x2x3 = $48 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 11-15-2006 at 07:13 PM. 
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#2
11-15-2006, 11:59 AM
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My Hollywood ticket pending late changes
3rd- 1,4 4th- 3 5th- 5,8 6th- 1,3,4,8 7th- 2,3,5,6 8th- 1,2,6,8,9
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#4
11-15-2006, 01:28 PM
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I hesitate to post anything on here, as I am not a specialist in handicapping. (Pedigrees are my thing; well, history, too.)
3rd 1,4 : both parts of the entry look good to me, the straight 1 comes from a solid family and has the Secretariat/Sir Gaylord thing going for her. The 4 is also from a solid family, Sherman good second off the claim (31%) 4th: 4 , yes I see Ferndale Sal in here, but I doubt he can get up when the 1 leads the 4 through fractions of approx 24 and 48. The 4 will sit off the slow pace and keep on in a one-paced style. (My take - could be totally wrong). 5th: 7,8; I think this is a ton o' speed race - I count 6 horses who want to be up on or close to the lead. Sets it up for a closer, going with the best looking ones IMHO. 6th: 3 ; If the blinkers on don't turn the 4 into a speed demon (and her works since her last race don't indicate it), 3 will have the lead to herself; first drop into claimers, should be able to keep going. 7th: 4 ; Don't like horses going 7f first off the layoff - 6f, yes, 7f no. I see the 3 and 5 going at it thru the early furlongs, and the 4 picking up the pieces. 8th: 2,6 ; 6 gets a jock upgrade, has been close in this sort of race. Two sprints to get fit, then the stretch out on turf, with blinkers off for Mullins is the 2's angle. The 2 is bred to be a turfer, dam a Royal Academy mare who was a half-sister to a monster mare named Horlicks - Japan Cup winner, won 5 G1s in Australia and New Zealand on turf. Okay, educate me. What am I overlooking? what am I paying too much attention to? Always trying to learn more.
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