5/28: Belmont ($43k P6 C/O); Churchill (7th-11th; X-C P5)

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Tricky start to $43k P6 C/O sequence with C. Brown 2nd timer Chaberton moving to lawn and looking like potential lone speed. Note that Brown's other horse (Lakota Spirit) is also trying grass and though stakes-winning dam Milam wasn't a turfer, she is a half to Rushing Fall..

Best Value: #6 Chaberton 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Libretto 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #12 Lakota Spirit 8-1 WON ($13.80)
Super Add: #10 I'm Glad 7-2 10th


6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Makin My Move 3-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Ready A.P. 9-2 4th
Next Best: #5 Tellaperfecttale 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Banker's Daughter 6-1 3rd


7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

You know what season it is?? It's "NY breds long on the turf" season!!

Best Value: #6 Mr Breadwinner 8-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Breadman 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Son of an Ex 15-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Lord Flintshire 6-1 2nd


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Highly Motivated 5-2 WON ($3.70)
Best Value: #3 The Reds 6-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Stage Raider 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Captain Bombastic 10-1 7th


9th: Soaring Softly (G3), 3yo-F, 7f-T (DD)

Fun bunch..

Most Likely: #9 Derrynane 7-2 5th
Next Best: #12 Chardy Party 9-2 WON ($6.50)
Best Value: #3 Lost My Sock 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Breeze Easy 10-1 2nd


10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 6f-Inner

Best Value: #10 Martinez 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Eminency 4-1 -
Exotics Use: #6 Two Down 9-2 WON ($)
Super Add: #8 Sharp Sensation 3-1 3rd


P6 Grid:

5: 1-6 (A), 10-12 (B), - (C)
6: 7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 2-6 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)
8: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 9 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x1x1x3 = $96
All A's: 2x2x2x1x1x3 = $24


P5 Grid:

6: 7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 2-6 (A), 4-5-8-9 (B), - (C)
8: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-9-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 4-6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x1x3x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 2x2x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

7: 2-6-8 (A), 4-5-9 (B), - (C)
8: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-9-12 (A), - (B), 2-10 (C)
10: 4-6-10 (A), 8-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x3x5 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 3x1x4x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x1x2x3 = 18 x .50 = $9

$0.50 Pick 4 (9/2,8/12/6,7,11) Paid $154.75



CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Mr. Tip 8-1 6th
Best Value: #1 High Deff 15-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Eyes On Target 3-1 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Red Hornet 6-1 2nd


8th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Cross Country P5 Starts Here..

Most Likely: #4 War Campaign 6-1 WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #10 Pioneering Spirit 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #12 Scotland Yard 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 My Romeo Lima 8-1 9th


Cross Country P5 Grid:

CD 8: 4-10-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
BEL 8: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
BEL 9: 3-9-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
CD 10: 1-4 (A), 7-8-9 (B), - (C)
CD 11: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x3x5x2 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 3x1x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


9th: OC/N3X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Ebben 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Dennis' Moment 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Gun It 9-5 2nd
Super Add: #2 Awesome Gerry 2-1 WON ($7.20)


10th: Keertana, F&M-4+, 12f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Stand Tall 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 La Lune 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Undisturbed 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Temple City Terror 3-1 WON ($7.60)


11th: ALW/N2L, 3yo-F, 6f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Ari Oakley 5-2 7th
Next Best: #8 Ontheonesandtwos 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Bali Dreamin 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Static Fire 5-1 WON ($16.40)


P5 Grid:

7: 1-5 (A), 4-10 (B), - (C)
8: 4-10-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 6 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
10: 1-4-9 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)
11: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x1x5x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x3x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (5 in 9th): 2x3x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

8: 4-10-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5-6 (A), - (B), 2-3 (C)
10: 1-4-9 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)
11: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x5x2 = $60 ($30 for .50)
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (2-3 in 9th): 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

[Dahoss]

5th is a nice betting race. I can't believe I'm typing this out, but I like the Chad Summers horse Full Count Felicia. Comes out of that super live race on April 9th. Her best puts her right there and hoping she gets lost on the board.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

5th is a nice betting race. I can't believe I'm typing this out, but I like the Chad Summers horse Full Count Felicia. Comes out of that super live race on April 9th. Her best puts her right there and hoping she gets lost on the board.

[Kasept]

J/K.. She can win.



But, seriously..

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Kasept

J/K.. She can win.



But, seriously..

Need my head examined for even considering betting that guy.

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

CD SCR/CHG'S

[Conrad]

How about the #11 Ouraika in the Soaring Softly at Bel today?
They all may be trying in vain to beat Derrynane, but I think she can get a slice at a good price.
Had a terrible time last out. Wide the whole trip, pulling, and racing at the wrong distance for her. Gets back to sprinting today, can be close the whole way if she's right. Franco riding well.

???

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by Conrad

How about the #11 Ouraika in the Soaring Softly at Bel today?
They all may be trying in vain to beat Derrynane, but I think she can get a slice at a good price.
Had a terrible time last out. Wide the whole trip, pulling, and racing at the wrong distance for her. Gets back to sprinting today, can be close the whole way if she's right. Franco riding well.

???

I see a "W" in the "W"inners circle in the Soaring Softly....

hands-on-crystal-ball-allan-swart.jpg

[Conrad]

Originally Posted by Conrad

How about the #11 Ouraika in the Soaring Softly at Bel today?
They all may be trying in vain to beat Derrynane, but I think she can get a slice at a good price.
Had a terrible time last out. Wide the whole trip, pulling, and racing at the wrong distance for her. Gets back to sprinting today, can be close the whole way if she's right. Franco riding well.

???

Oof
She probably wasn't good enough anyway, but it sure would have been nice if Franco had her a bit more forwardly placed.