|
|
 |
|
|
|
#1
07-13-2024, 05:22 AM
|
||||
|
||||
7/13: Saratoga ~ Day 3 (Diana, Sanford; X-C P5)
SARATOGA
POST-SCRATCHES 1st: MSW-$, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P5, P3, DD) Best Value: #5 Amore Sofia 5-1 5th Next Best: #4 Dare to Breeze 4-5 WON ($3.10) Exotics Use: #2 Mischief Maxey 9-2 3rd Super Add: #3 Gerlin's Empire 6-1 2nd 2nd: Kelso (G3), 4+, 1m-Inner (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #5 Carl Spackler 2-1 WON ($3.50) Next Best: #4 Talk of the Nation 2-1 2nd 3rd: CLM, 4+, 6f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #4 Celestial Gaze 3-1 3rd Best Value: #3 Didinger 12-1 5th Next Best: #1a (POE) Top Gunner 2-1 WON ($5.60) Exotics Use: #7 Lost in Rome 8-1 4th 4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #3 CLASSIC LEGACY 5-2 2nd Next Best: #2 Illuminaire 7-5 WON ($4.10) Best Value: #6 Vinco 12-1 4th Exotics Use: #4 Kunshan Bridge 8-1 5th 5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-Inner (Must Pay P5, P3, DD) Best Value: #3 Rebel Red 5-1 WON ($6.70) Next Best: #1e Brown entry 6-5 2nd/6th Exotics Use: #7 Ramblin' Wreck 4-1 5th Super Add: #8 Samburu 8-1 4th P5 Grid: 1: 4-5 (A), 2-3 (B), - (C) 2: 4-5 (A), - (B), - (C) 3: 3-4 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C) 4: 3 (A), - (B), - (C) 5: 1-3-7 (A), - (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): All A's: P4 Grid: 2: 4-5 (A), - (B), - (C) 3: 3-4 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C) 4: 3 (A), - (B), - (C) 5: 1-3-7 (A), - (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): All A's: 6th: NY-ALW/N1Z, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD) Act of Congress could prove tough to catch here. After that, there's 7-8 that look eligible.. Most Likely: #10 Act of Congress 5-1 6th Next Best: #1 Turriga 5-1 5th Best Value: #3 City Blocks 30-1 9th Exotics Use: #7 Stolen Future 7-2 4th 7th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f ($1 P6, P3, DD) This is a problematic group of babies.. Best Value: #2 Moment's Notice 8-1 3rd Next Best: #3 Tenacious Leader 5-2 5th Exotics Use: #7 Munson 6-1 4th Super Add: #1 Tough Catch 8-1 WON ($15.00) P4 Grid: 4: 3 (A), - (B), - (C) 5: 1-3-7 (A), - (B), - (C) 6: 1-10 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C) 7: 1-2-3-7 (A), - (B), - (C) All A's: 1x3x2x4 = $24 ($12 for .50) Backup (AACA): 1x3x2x4 = 24 x .50 = $12 8th: MSW, 3+, 7f (P5, G/S, P3, DD) Yeesh. More problematic maidens, albeit for a different reason.. These have clear talent and there's easily 7 conceivable for graduation (1e-2-3-4-5-7-10).. Best Value: #5 Escondido 10-1 11th Next Best: #10 Hurricane Nelson 3-1 2nd Exotics Use: #3 Upstanding 4-1 3rd Super Add: #2 Point Clear 5-1 5th MONMOUTH 9th: Blue Sparkler, 3yo-F, 5f-T (DD) Best Value: #8 Shuangxi 5-1 2nd Next Best: #4 Tiffany Girl 2-1 3rd Exotics Use: #3 Super Freaky Girl 4-1 8th Super Add: #5 El Terreno 9-2 WON ($8.40) Cross Country P5 Grid: MTH 9: 4-8 (A), - (B), - (C) SAR 9: 8-10 (A), - (B), - (C) MTH 10: 6-7 (A), - (B), 3-5 (C) SAR 10: 1-6 (A), 3-4-5 (B), - (C) SAR 11: 3-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x5x3 = 120 x .50 = $60 All A's: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 Backup (AACAA): 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (3-5 in MTH 10th) 9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD) Irish Aces is certainly 'likeliest' dropping back from stakes placement, but also has a license to regress which would open the window to a host of alternatives. Cherie brings Taking Candy back from year layoff and he was terrific here last summer taking ALW ahead of Saranac 2nd to Carl Spackler. Will be obscured v. those with recency.. Best Value: #10 Taking Candy 10-1 WON ($13.60) Next Best: #8 Irish Aces 2-1 3rd Exotics Use: #9 Beuys 5-1 7th Super Add: #1 Tidal Forces 10-1 2nd $1 Exacta (10-1) Paid $227.75 $1 Trifecta (10-1-8) Paid $824.50 P5 Grid: 5: 1-3-7 (A), - (B), - (C) 6: 10 (A), 1 (B), 3-7 (C) 7: 2-3 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C) 8: 3-5-10 (A), - (B), - (C) 9: 8-10 (A), - (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72 All A's: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 Backup (ACAAA): 3x2x2x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (3-7 in 6th) P4 Grid: 6: 1-10 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C) 7: 2-3 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C) 8: 3-5-10 (A), - (B), - (C) 9: 8-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 Backup (CAAA): 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 MONMOUTH 10th: CLM, 3+, 6f Most Likely: #6 Palm Island 9-5 WON ($4.80) Next Best: #7 Threethirtythree 9-2 5th Best Value: #3 Cruising Derek 15-1 4th Exotics Use: #5 Little Skippy 8-1 6th 10th: Diana (G1), F&M-4+, 9f-Inner (P3, DD) The 1st Beat Byk race of the season and it's an absolute war. Moira should be ready to fire and Whitebeam has a tactical edge with uncertainty of where the speed is coming from.. Play to qualify to win a seat to NHC: https://www.ntra.com/nhc/beatbyk/ Most Likely: #1 Moira 5-1 2nd Next Best: #6 Whitebeam 4-1 WON ($11.60) Best Value: #3 Mission of Joy 10-1 6th Exotics Use: #5 Gina Romantica 8-1 3rd 11th: Sanford (G3), 2yo, 6f (DD) Jerry Robb returns with Studlydoright and while he won't be 14-1 again, he won't be close to favored either. Right back. Mentee and Baby Dukes could end up sparing up front and Butch Reid's debut winner offers value at 12-1.. Most Likely: #6 Studlydoright 7-2 2nd Best Value: #3 Baby Dukes 12-1 6th Next Best: #5 Three Echoes 4-1 3rd Exotics Use: #8 Mo Plex 8-1 WON ($5.70) 12th: OC-S/ALW, 3+, 5.5f-T Best Value: #7 Three Zero 6-1 6th Next Best: #9 Rhythm Nic 9-2 WON ($6.60) Exotics Use: #2 Dr Oseran 7-2 9th Super Add: #5 Heymackit'sjack 8-1 7th P5 Grid: 8: 3-5-10 (A), - (B), - (C) 9: 8-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C) 10: 1-6 (A), 3-4-5-10 (B), - (C) 11: 6 (A), - (B), 3 (C) 12: 7-9 (A), - (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 3x3x6x1x2 = 108 x .50 = $54 All A's: 3x3x2x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 Backup (AAACA): 3x3x2x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (3 in 11th) P4 Grid: 9: 8-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C) 10: 1-3-6 (A), 4-5-10 (B), - (C) 11: 3-6 (A), - (B), - (C) 12: 7-9 (A), - (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 3x6x2x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 07-14-2024 at 05:27 AM. 
|
|
#2
07-13-2024, 10:44 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
|
|
#3
07-13-2024, 11:20 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
|
|
#5
07-14-2024, 05:40 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
|
|
#6
07-14-2024, 06:15 AM
|
||||
|
||||
   Above are the Thoro-Graph looks for the top 3 in the 9th yesterday that produced an $824 triple and I want to slip in an explainer.. TAKING CANDY had the TG Sire Index pattern opportunity I talk about all the time in his first start as a 4yo. Note that Twirling Candy progeny have a TGI (Thoro-Graph Index) of 16 at 2, 13 at 3 and 10.75 at 4. Taking Candy improved 3+ points from 2 to 3 (15.75 down to 12.25) and was now making his 4yo debut having established a career top of 8 as a 3yo, which happened to come at Saratoga in the ALW before the good try in the Saranac (10). His sire index suggests improvement as a 4yo of 2+ points, so you could project him running in the 5-6 range. At 10-1 with the way Cherie is going, he felt like the right price key and he looked a winner every step under confident Jose Lezcano at 6-1. TIDAL FORCES established rock solid credentials with the 4's at Gulfstream over the winter and was a little dirtied up from the Danger Hour try (9) and off turf run (7). At 10-1 (and then crazily ignored at 30-1 in the live betting), he was a one of the ones you wanted to use with Taking Candy. IRISH ACES was the obvious fave and horse to beat, but as I wrote, a regression from the big career best (2) could open things up for alternatives. I used BEUYS who had run lots of 5's as well. He was a mild, chasing 7th. The result of Taking Candy, Tidal Forces and Irish Aces tripped the $824.50 tri. GEORGIE W had paired 3 straights 7's and need to move forward and did to be 4th at 8-1 pushing the Super to $7,650. 
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 07-14-2024 at 06:56 AM.
|
Hybrid Mode
