7/27: Saratoga ~ Day 13 (Vandy/Dandy; X-C P5)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Mariachi 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Speak Easy 1-1 WON ($3.50)
Exotics Use: #3 General Banker 8-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Be the Boss 5-1 7th


5th: S/ALW, 3+, 9f (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Who's the King 5-2 4th
Next Best: #1 Have You Heard 6-1 6th
Bes Valuet: #6 Collection Day 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Pando 12-1 7th


6th: A.G. Vanderbilt (G1), 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Beat Byk Saturday race: https://www.ntra.com/nhc/beatbyk/

Most Likely: #5 Subrogate 7-2 6th
Best Value: #2 Twisted Ride 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Baby Yoda 7-2 4th


7th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Chancer McPatrick 4-1 WON ($6.70)
Best Value: #5 Fiddling Felix 15-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Tharhom 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Tiztastic 6-1 5th


P4 Grid:

4: 3-4-5th-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 2-4-5-6 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
7: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 4x3x4x1 = $48 ($24 for .50)
Backup (AACA): 4x3x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12 (1-3 in 6th)


8th: Monmouth Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Little Jamie 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Gun Song 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Yes to Champagne 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Chilled 9-2 6th


Cross Country P5 Grid:

MTH 8: 5-8 (A), - (B), 2-4 (C)
SAR 8: 1-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
MTH 9: 3-6 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
SAR 9: 5-12 (A), 2-11 (B), - (C)
SAR 10: 1-4 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (CAAAA): 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (2-4 in MTH 8th)


SAR 8th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Satin Blue 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Scarlet Poppy 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Lamorna 9-2 WON ($9.50)
Super Add: #5 Aunt Nona 10-1 10th


MTH 9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Hopesndreams 9-2 WON ($6.40)
Next Best: #3 Our Dotsie 3-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Awesomenewyear 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Happy N Smiling 6-1 3rd


SAR 9th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 9f-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Navy Seal 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Risk Tolerance 3-1 8th
Best Value: #11 Tifareeh 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Main Beach 5-1 4th


P5 Grid:

5: 1-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 2-5 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)
7: 4 (A), - (B), 5-9 (C)
8: 1-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5-12 (A), 2-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x1x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACAA): 3x2x2x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (5-9 in 7th)


P4 Grid:

6: 2-5 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)
7: 4-5 (A), - (B), 9-10 (C)
8: 1-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5-12 (A), 2-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (ACAA): 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (9-10 in 7th)


SAR 10th: Jim Dandy (G2), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

It's not totally 'now or never' for Fierceness and/or Sierra Leone, but it is a big opportunity for a statement in a Travers prep. Assignment is complicated by presence of the Preakness winner, OH Derby exacta pair and Sadler Cali cruiser whom Baffert lauded on ATR Monday. I won't be surprised by any potential result here..

Best Value: #4 Pony Express 20-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Sierra Leone 1-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Gould's Gold 15-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Batten Down 5-1 3rd


11th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

'NY breds long on the turf' and the value is lined up outside..

Best Value: #9 Ez Roll 6-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Rabaja 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Willintoriskitall 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Topic Changer 10-1 6th


12th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-Inner

Second offering of 'NY breds long on the turf' and a perfect example of why these are the best wagering opportunities on the circuit. Many, many chances signed on..

Most Likely: #10 North End Lady 5-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Bobby M's Girl 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Summer Whirl 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #6 She Is All Business 10-1 7th


P5 Grid:

8: 1-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 5-11-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-4 (A), - (B), 6 (C)
11: 9 (A), 2 (B), - (C)
12: 7-10 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x2x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACAA): 3x3x1x1x2 = 18 x .50 = $9 (6 in 10th)


P4 Grid:

9: 5-11-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-4 (A), - (B), 6 (C)
11: 2-9 (A), 7-10 (B), - (C)
12: 7-10 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (ACAA): 3x1x2x2 = 12 x .50 = $6 (6 in 10th)


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

[Kasept]

MTH SCR/CHG'S

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