9/11: Happy Valley ~ Luke Middlebrook's HKJC

[Kasept]

Luke Middlebrook's Hong Kong Selections and Analysis
Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Hong Kong Jockey Club Wednesday's Happy Valley card in Hong Kong begins at 7:15 a.m. Eastern.

Happy Valley Selections
(Wednesday, September 11, 2024)

Race 1: #1 Daily Trophy, #3 Super Eagle, #8 Viva A La, #4 High Rise Power
Race 2: #5 Sight Happy, #2 Joy Coming, #3 Scotch Tycoon, #4 Sixth Generation
Race 3: #1 Packing Power, #4 Aurora Lady, #7 Colonel, #2 Flying Wrote
Race 4: #7 Precision Goal, #5 Reliable Profit, #3 Invincible Missile, #8 Right Honourable
Race 5: #7 Sweet Diamond, #1 Ma Comet, #5 Less Is More, #12 Happy Horse
Race 6: #1 Red Majesty, #12 Kasa Papa, #11 Matsu Victor, #7 D Star
Race 7: #4 Helene Warrior, #11 I Can, #3 Lovero, #10 Setanta
Race 8: #8 Super Joy N Fun, #10 Ka Ying Cheer, #9 Righteous Arion, #1 Reward Smile

Race 1 - CHUNG HOM KOK HANDICAP
#1 Daily Trophy will benefit from barrier 1 and apprentice Ellis Wong’s 7lb claim. He’s the one to beat with plenty in his favour. #3 Super Eagle makes his debut in Class 5 with Zac Purton in the saddle—a strong pairing. #8 Viva A La can make early use of his inside draw in barrier 2, where he succeeded six starts ago. #4 High Rise Power transferred to trainer Dennis Yip’s stable ahead of his return. He responded well in his recent trial and is set for improvement in his second attempt in Class 5.

Race 2 - SHEK O HANDICAP
#5 Sight Happy showed potential in three runs last season, and natural improvement will see him make further inroads this campaign. Under Hugh Bowman from barrier 2, he is the one to beat. #2 Joy Coming returned to Class 4 last time, but a wide trip diminished his chances despite not being beaten by far. He looked good in his trial. #3 Scotch Tycoon found form in his final three runs last season, and his last-start third to Packing Hermod looks solid here. #4 Sixth Generation needs more distance but caught the eye in his trial. He could be worth considering at odds.

Race 3 - SHEK O HANDICAP
#1 Packing Power made a lasting impression on debut with a decisive course and distance win in June. Trainer Danny Shum’s charge looks destined for greater things and can win again. #4 Aurora Lady is ready to fire with two promising barrier trials. He was nearing a win in three runs last season and can challenge. #7 Colonel switches to Mark Newnham’s stable after leaving Ricky Yiu's. His front-running style is likely unchanged—he’ll try to lead throughout. #2 Flying Wrote won one of four starts last season and was never far off. He can grab a good position early and figure in the finish.

Race 4 - STANLEY HANDICAP
#7 Precision Goal turned his form around last season after moving to David Hayes, winning one and placing twice in seven starts. Zac Purton stays on board, and he’s well-placed to continue his good form. #5 Reliable Profit was getting close to a win late last season. The Danny Shum and Hugh Bowman combination is one to respect. #3 Invincible Missile is poised to improve in his second start in this grade, but he must take advantage of the low draw early. #8 Right Honourable is a veteran performer who remains in solid form. Barrier 2 will aid his cause.

Race 5 - KIU TSUI HANDICAP
#7 Sweet Diamond benefits from barrier 1. He posted back-to-back wins late last season but had valid excuses when attempting the hat-trick. #1 Ma Comet was runner-up in his last three races, suggesting a win is near. The drop in class has worked in his favour, and his first Hong Kong victory is within reach. #5 Less Is More showed flashes of ability last season despite not placing in five starts. His recent trial performance was eye-catching. #12 Happy Horse might be better suited to Class 5, but his early speed gives him a chance to hold on in this contest.

Race 6 - THE COMMUNITY CHEST CUP (HANDICAP)
#1 Red Majesty makes his second attempt back in Class 4, where he has solid form. Zac Purton’s booking and barrier 1 strengthen his winning prospects. #12 Kasa Papa was transferred to Tony Cruz late last season and ran well despite some excuses. He’s dropped in ratings and is a strong lightweight chance. #11 Matsu Victor showed improvement with racing last season, finishing a close second at this course and distance in his final outing. He’ll need some luck from a wide gate, but a strong tempo will suit him. #7 D Star won first-up last season and now resumes 10 points lower than his previous mark—expect improvement.

Race 7 - HOI MEI HANDICAP
#4 Helene Warrior displayed plenty of potential last season, highlighted by a strong win over this course and distance two starts ago. He’s progressing well and is the one to beat. #11 I Can returns to his preferred track and distance, having run a solid fourth at Sha Tin in his last outing. #3 Lovero is another specialist at Happy Valley who, from barrier 1, will be favourably positioned on-pace to make his mark. #10 Setanta will need luck from the back, but he has improved since joining Mark Newnham’s stable and is worth considering.

Race 8 - LIDO HANDICAP
#8 Super Joy N Fun is a promising type, winning two of six starts and running against strong company last season. His last-start third to Packing Hermod suggests he’s well-placed here. #10 Ka Ying Cheer has had multiple chances to win in Class 3 but hasn’t broken through yet. His two trials were impressive, and he’s capable of an early-season victory, especially with Zac Purton atop first time. #9 Righteous Arion will be charging home late off what should be a genuine tempo. #1 Reward Smile finds this a more winnable contest than previous assignments but will need to overcome barrier 11 first-up.

[Kasept]

Paul Lally:

R1: 2-7-8-4
R2: 8-2-5-3
R3: 1-2-4-6
R4: 8-1-5-3
R5: 5-7-12-8
R6: 5-1-7-3
R7: 3-9-4-1
R8: 9-2-8-10

Best Bet R6 N5 Double Win
Longshot R8 N9 Righteous Arion
Play R7 QQP 3-4-9


Tom Wood:

R1: 2-3-4-7
R2: 3-5-2-4
R3: 1-4-8-2
R4: 8-3-1-4
R5: 5-1-3-8
R6: 6-5-1-11
R7: 9-1-2-4
R8: 8-9-12-10

BEST: R5 N5 LESS IS MORE (WIN)
VALUE: R7 N9 GLORIOUS JOURNEY (EW)
PLAY: R5 QQP 1,3,5


Mark McNamara:

R1: 2.8.7.3
R2: 3.8.5.4
R3: 1.4.2.6
R4: 3.8.5.7
R5: 5.7.1.3
R6: 5.1.3.12
R7: 4.1.3.7
R8: 5.10.8.2

Best Bet R2 N3 Scotch Tycoon
Longshot R8 N5 Never to Soon
Play R2 Q/QP 3.5.8

[Kasept]

Tim Carroll

Tim's Nap won on Sunday and he now previews the opening meeting of the 2024/25 season from Happy Valley this Wednesday - live on Sky Sports Racing from 12.10pm.

This Wednesday sees the opening meeting of the 2024/25 season from Happy Valley, an eight-race card which gets underway at 12.10pm - live on Sky Sports Racing. The final two races are both valuable Class 3 contests offering prizemoney of up to £205,000.

Now onto this week's selections.

Race 1: Class 5 Chung Hom Kok Handicap (12.10pm) (6 furlongs)

3 SUPER EAGLE has recorded just the one win from thirty local starts, but a 2lb drop in the handicap sees him in the bottom grade for the very first time. The selection was kept busy last season, but he was able to win at a level above this and place a further nine times from higher marks including when runner-up on his seasonal return, which came from a 7lb higher mark than he now finds himself on.

Dangers:
2 Joyful Light is a ten-start maiden that was last seen when runner-up over this trip at Sha Tin from a tough draw when having his first start at this level and he was tuned up for this when placed in a recent trial.
8 Viva A La is hard to catch, and he’s never won off this mark, but he usually likes to sit handy, thus he should have all the favours from the low draw.
7 Cheer For South is a fourteen start maiden but he ran well enough in defeat his last two at Sha Tin at this level and is on 2lb better terms with Joyful Life having finished less than a length behind that rival last time & connections add first-time blinkers.
Race 2: Class 4 Shek O Handicap (12.40pm) (6 furlongs)

2 JOY COMING has won three times over course & trip including on his seasonal reappearance last year, and although that came from a 6lb lower mark, he did win from just 2lb lower than his current assessment later in the campaign, which came from the outside draw. The selection was last seen in early July when dropping back to this level for the first time since that win, and whilst he ran fourth that day, he had no luck planted wide without cover off topweight, and with a bit more luck in running, he should go close.

Dangers:
5 Sight Happy was a tad disappointing when unplaced at Sha Tin last time having had the run of the race, but he’s a well-bred thrice raced maiden who was placed here the start before and has far more scope than most of these.
1 Lightning Bolt was well held his final few starts last season, but he was a twice winner over course & trip early in the campaign with the second of those from a 10lb higher mark than his current assessment & he could run well fresh now that he takes a drop in grade.
3 Scotch Tycoon was placed his last three runs of last season, two of those being over course & trip, all from similar mark and the draw in 1 looks helpful as they do tend to like to have him forward these days.
Race 3: Class 4 Shek O Handicap (1.10pm) (6 Furlongs)

1 PACKING POWER will make his seasonal return having been well supported on debut when winning over course & trip in June. The handicapper has lumped him 8lb for that which sees him at the top of the handicap conceding up to 19lb to his rivals, which is no easy task. However, he won despite a tardy start last time, having to be bustled along to grab a forward spot, but he was strong through the line, and the son of Toronado is entitled to improve further.

Dangers:
4 Aurora Lady, who wears a first-time tongue strap, is a thrice raced maiden that has run with some promise on each occasion, and he did look sharp when placed in a recent trial, but Purton rode him in that trial the day and sticks with the selection.
2 Flying Wrote broke his duck over course & trip in June at just his third start and whilst a tad disappointing when unplaced when last seen in July, he’s a low mileage 4yo in very good hands.
5 To Infinity is more effective over the mile, but his a four-time winner drawn low in a race that will be run at a solid gallop and he should be doing his best work late.
Race 4: Class 5 Stanley Handicap (1.40pm) (1 mile)

2 NINJA DERBY had gone sixteen starts without success but was well supported when last seen in July and justified the market confidence when winning over nine-furlongs. The form from the race has a solid look about it with the runner-up, who was well held by the winner, coming out and winning at the opening meeting at Sha Tin on the weekend. The selection goes up 7lb and drops back to the mile, but he has shown a bit of pace recently and was runner-up his only try over this trip this year, and although he now goes from toward the top of the handicap, he looks a slow burning type with more to offer.

Dangers:
7 Precision Goal broke his duck over course & trip in June and was last seen when runner-up over seven-furlongs at Sha Tin, and whilst he doesn’t have the best of strike rates, he should sit handy in a race offering no more than a moderate gallop.
6 Golden Fairy, who is a low mileage 6yo that had a few issues earlier in his career, rewarded connections patience by winning two of his four starts this year, but goes up 8lb having won over ten-furlongs when last seen in June & probably needs a bit further to be seen at his best.
8 Right Honourable is a veteran 10yo who ideally wants a stronger gallop than he’s likely to get here but he did win over course & trip in November and was only beaten just over two-lengths on his return last season when running off an 11lb higher mark.
Race 5: Class 4 Kiu Tsui Handicap (2.10pm) (5 furlongs)

7 SWEET DIAMOND can be forgiven an unplaced effort when well beaten last time as he made a complete hash of the start and lost considerable ground. He had won his previous two starts over six-furlongs and although they were the only wins he recorded last season, he was placed several times, including over this trip, despite a tough run of high draws. The selection has no history of gate issues thus I’d like to think it was a one off, and given he likes to sit up on the pace, the draw in 1 is ideal.

Dangers:
5 Less Is More is a five-start maiden yet to place that will be having his first spin at Happy Valley, but he wasn’t beaten far a couple of times at Sha Tin last season, the race maps strongly from the draw and he should have more to offer during his sophomore campaign.
1 Ma Comet, who sports first-time cheek-pieces, is an eight-start maiden that looks a winner in waiting having picked up the silver over course & trip his last three starts, but the draw in 10 looks tricky.
11 Super Sixty is a low mileage maiden with upside that ran with a hint of promise his last two starts and his last run can be marked up after he was slow to break, but he will need some luck from the high draw.
Race 6: Class 4 Community Chest Cup (Handicap) (2.45pm) (1 mile)

3 VIVA HUNTER is a 7yo that went winless last season, but most of his runs in the grade were on the dirt track and the last time he was seen on turf was in April when he had to be stoked up to get across from a high draw to finish third having tried to make all. Once claims are considered, he effectively runs from a 6lb lower mark here, he is now 16lb better off than his last win, & whilst we are pulling out the slide rule, it’s worth noting he was beaten just over two-lengths on his return last season and is now on 24lb better terms. He’s likely to go forward from the low draw and he was tuned up for this with a recent win at the trials.

Dangers:
1 Red Majesty goes from the top of the handicap, but the veteran is a nine-time course & trip winner that has won from higher marks in the past, he’s well drawn, and Purton takes the ride.
4 Atomic Beauty, who won a Group 2 as a juvenile in Ireland when known as Atomic Jones, is a bit hard to catch, but he was a twice course last season & unlike his first two domestic campaigns, they start him first-up over what looks to be his best trip.
7 D Star lost his way during the second half of his last campaign, but he did win first-up over course & trip last season with a few of this behind and is worth including from a 10lb lower mark on his seasonal return.
Race 7: Class 3 Hoi Mei Handicap (3.15pm) (1 mile)

4 HELENE WARRIOR, who was. a twice winner (known as Red Zone Hero) for Michael Bell has had the six local starts, winning over course & trip in good style two back, before an unplaced effort when a beaten favourite in behind a. couple he meets here at his most recent start in June. He certainly didn’t run poorly that night, but he didn’t help himself when taking a bit of a tug which blunted his finish. He's only a young horse that should have more to offer, he meets a couple of these on better terms and he looked sharp when winning a recent trial.

Dangers:
2 Romantic Laos goes up 3lb having been runner-up his last two, but he was a luckless loser last time with connections contemplating an objection against the winner before deciding otherwise, and he did win first-up last season, albeit from a 10lb lower mark.
1 Hameron goes from the top of the handicap but he’s a consistent type at this level that is accustomed to carry big weights, and he did win over course & trip in good style last season and is only 3lb higher here.
3 Lovero was well held his last couple of starts, but he was a twice course & trip winner last season that is perfectly drawn as he likes to sit handy, and with no natural leaders there’s a fair chance he’ll get his own way on the front.
Race 8: Class 3 Lido Handicap (3.50pm) (6 furlongs)

2 SUGAR SUGAR looks worth a play in what is a completive and open looking contest. The Caspar Fownes 6yo is probably a tad more talented than his overall record would suggest, but he hasn’t always enjoyed the rub of the green as they do often look to deliver him late. Having said that, he’s no slow coach and from the low draw they may elect to have him a tad closer to the speed like his last win over course & trip in February. The selection runs well fresh having been runner-up last season and recorded a win the campaign prior, and connections have booked Ellis Wong, who claims a handy 7lbs.

Dangers:
8 Super Joy N Fun, who wears a first-time tongue-strap, is a low mileage 4yo that won his first two starts, both over course & trip, before running well enough in defeat at his next four when upped to this level, he’s open to further improvement, and should have all the favours in behind the leaders here.
10 Ka Ying Cheer has been costly to follow having gone off on the pointy end of the betting in nearly all ten starts which has netted just the debut win, but he continues to run with merit in defeat and he makes his seasonal return having won two recent trials.
9 Righteous Arion is yet to win at this level, but all three career successes have been over this trip and he tends to run he best races when he has a solid gallop to aim at, which he’ll get here.


WEDNESDAY’S PLACEPOT

Today’s Tote Place Pot will be races 3 through to 8. All up we will be playing 54 combinations (1x3x3x2x1x3), which will cost £5.40 for a 10p stake and so on. Good luck.

LEG 1 - 1 PACKING POWER

LEG 2- 2 NINJA DERBY 6 GOLDEN FAIRY 7 PRECISION GOAL

LEG 3- 1 MA COMET 5 LESS IS MORE 7 SWEET DIAMOND

LEG 3- 1 RED MAJESTY 3 VIVA HUNTER

LEG 5- 4 HELENE WARRIOR

LEG 6- 2 SUGAR SUGAR 8 SUPER JOY N FUN 10 KA YING CHEER


TIM'S BEST BETS
1.10pm HAPPY VALLEY

PACKING POWER (NAP)
2.45pm HAPPY VALLEY

VIVA HUNTER (EW)
3.15pm HAPPY VALLEY

HELENE WARRIOR (NB)
BETTING ON HONG KONG RACING
Punters can bet into the Hong Kong pools online through Tote.co.uk