3/8: Tampa Bay Downs (3rd-12th; X-C P5)

[Kasept]

TAMPA BAY DOWNS ~ CROSS COUNTRY P5


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Cha Cha Quick 9/5 6th
Next Best: #5 Naked Eye 4-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Fast Market 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Subtle Humor 5-2 4th


4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 9f-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Alimara 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Prides Crossing 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Fundamentally 6-1 WON ($19.00)
Super Add: #8 Up Her Sleeve 6-1 9th


5th: Challenger (G3), 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Skippylongstocking 7/5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #6 Most Wanted 3/2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Instant Coffee 15-1 3rd


6th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (Ultimate 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 Night Agent 10-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Moment's Notice 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Wise Up 5-2 8th
Super Add: #4 Bridoza 20-1 5th


P4 Grid:

3: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 3-4-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 2-3-4-5-6-12 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 1x4x2x6 = 48 x .50 = $24


7th: Columbia, 3yo, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Early Adopter 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Reagan's Wit 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Zulu Kingdom 2-1 WON ($5.20)
Super Add: #9 Dream On 4-1 5th


8th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #11 Silver Slugger 7-2 WON ($7.40)
Next Best: #12 Laser Sharp 3-1 2nd
Best Value: ##13 Song Runner 30-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Dither 4-1 6th


P5 Grid:

4: 3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 8 (A), - (B), 6 (C)
6: 2-3-5 (A), 4-6-12 (B), - (C)
7: 1-4 (A), 6-9 (B), - (C)
8: 7-11-12-13 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x1x6x4x4 = 192 x .50 = $92
All A's: 2x1x3x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (ACAAA): 2x1x3x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24 (6 in 5th)


P4 Grid:

5: 8 (A), 6 (B), 3 (C)
6: 2-3-5 (A), 4-6-12 (B), - (C)
7: 1-4 (A), 6-9 (B), - (C)
8: 7-11-12-13 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 1x3x2x4 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (ACAAA): 1x3x2x4 = 24 x .50 = $12 (3 in 5th)

$0.50 PICK FOUR (1,2,5,7,8/12/2,6,7/11) Paid $57.55


9th: Hillsborough (G2), F&M-4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Saffron Moon 9/5 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #1 Sparkle Blue 8-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Gimme a Nother 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Spaliday 4-1 6th


AQUEDUCT 9th: NY-Gander, 3yo, 1m (DD)

Best Value: #1 Givememythememusic 8-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Soontobeking 6-1 WON ($14.80)
Exotics Use: #5 National Identity 7/5 2nd
Super Add: #3 Mo Plex 5-2 3rd


CROSS COUNTRY P5 Grid:

AQU 8: 1-4-5 (A), 3-9 (B), - (C)
TAM 10: 7-9 (A), 5-10 (B), 2-6 (C)
TAM 11: 1-2-3-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
OP 9: 10 (A), - (B), - (C)
OP 10: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x5x1x2 = 200 x .50 = $100
All A's: 3x2x5x1x2 = 60 x .50 = $30
Backup (ACAAA): 3x2x5x1x2 = 60 x .50 = $30 (2-6 in TAM 10th)

$0.50 PICK FIVE (4/9,12/1/9,10,12/1,4,7) Paid $328.25 (A-A-A-A-A)


TAMPA 10th: Florida Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Very nice group of soph gals, boding well for division this season. Would like to lean on Nitrogen for multis given challenge of other legs..

Most Likely: #9 Nitrogen 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #7 Opulent Restraint 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Love You Anyway 30-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Pretty Lavish 6-1 8th


TAMPA 11th: Tampa Bay Derby (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

This is a curiosity given the OP misfire by Patch Adams and the seasonal debuts and blinkering of both Chads (Chancer McPatrick/Hill Road) and Filoso. Latched on to Hill Road as BCup exotics player and hold 56-1 Derby future wager ticket, so getting him into the Downs gate would be nice. Am tempered today by Brown saying he would have liked a couple more works with him and 4-1 isn't exactly a number that entices. I legitimately am unsure of how this race will be run, so I'm struggling with a definitive approach towards it's outcome. Dylan Davis reunites with Filoso and between his previous mounts on him and the blinkers, figures for the kind of mid-pack stalking trip that wins here. Price is right..

Best Value: #5 Filoso 15-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Hill Road 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Chancer McPatrick 8/5 2nd
Super Add: #1 Owen Almighty 5-1 WON ($7.80)


P5 Grid:

7: 1-4 (A), 6-9 (B), - (C)
8: 7-11-12-13 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-8 (A), - (B), 6-7 (C)
10: 9 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
11: 2-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x2x2x3 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 2x4x2x1x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AACAA): 2x4x2x1x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (6-7 in 9th)


P4 Grid:

8: 7-11-12-13 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-8 (A), - (B), 6-7 (C)
10: 9 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
11: 2-3-5 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x5 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A's: 4x2x1x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AACAA): 4x2x1x3 = 24 x .50 = $12 (6-7 in 9th)

$0.50 PICK FOUR (11/3,8/9,12/1) Paid $65.80


OAKLAWN 9th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Lukas chooses to take his time with Nuit Magique, who couldn't have been more impressive breaking MDN at first asking..

Most Likely: #10 NUIT MAGIQUE 7-2 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #8 Roman Grace 15-1 5th
Next Best: #7 She Called 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Outrageously 15-1 4th


OAKLAWN 10th: Azeri (G2), F&M-4+, 8.5f (DD)

Best Value: #2 Alpine Princess 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Thorpedo Anna 2/5 WON ($2.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Jody''s Pride 8-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Free Like a Girl 15-1 2nd


12th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Channel Check 2-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Native Rose 15-1 WON ($13.80)
Next Best: #7 Currane 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Lady Authentic 7-2 2nd


P4 Grid:

9: 1-8 (A), - (B), 6-7 (C)
10: 7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-3-5 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
12: 2-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x5x3 = 60 x .50 = $30
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (CAAA): 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (6-7 in 9th)

$0.50 PICK FOUR (3,8/9,12/1/5) Paid $220.45


Let's get lucky!
Steve

[moses]

On Hill Road, is Chad just trying to temper expectations? If he needs two more weeks, why not just run him in the Jeff Ruby? I guess running Hill Road today gives him the chance to run in the Bluegrass or Wood( or other April prep races) if he runs well or is training well after this.

[Kasept]

TAM SCR/CHG'S

AQU SCR/CHG'S

OP SCR/CHG'S

[myke]

Steve,

Thanks for making my afternoon..

[moses]

Casse won the Tampa Bay Derby with Helium a few years ago. Comes back with Nitrogen and wins the Florida Oaks.