Lava Man - A Concern?

[2MinsToPost]

Looking at this race, one thing stands out to me, actually more then one thing. I appreciate your thoughts as I am going to have to make my plays around 1 or 2 pm tomorrow as I have to work tomorrow afternoon / evening. Thank God for DVD Recorders

Only going on the PP's avaliable in todays DRF which go back to the 2005 Pacific Classic

Both Turf wins were when Lava was either 1st or 2nd from gate to wire, never more then 2 lengths back from the leader

Second, all the works are on the Hollywood Poly.

I realize that the Poly to Turf angle has been successful and seems to work. However, I am thinking to myself, this horse just wants the lead and nothing else, dirt or turf. What happens when some of these other animals get out first and Lava has to fight traffic and come from more then 2 or 3 lengths?

Names come to mind as an upset special,
Railroad
Go Between
Sherwood Park

[Scav]

All attention on Lava tomorrow, 500k carryover will be dependent on him.....

Hmmm... I'm not sure I see Lava Man as a "need the lead or die" type. I don't ever recall him being rank whenever he wasn't on the front end but then again I could be suffering from short term memory failure. Even if things don't go entirely his way, LM seems to have the talent and the guts to pull out a win.

If LM does get beaten, I agree Go Between could be one to do it. I'd also keep an eye on Super Strut.

There needs to be a big thread for the Sunshine Millions.

I'm stumped on the dash. So far i've got Ididn'tdoanything, Idiot Proof and Texas Voyager. Complexity and Leonardo are tough to leave out.

[Pedigree Ann]

Lava Man doesn't need the lead to run well, but he doesn't like to run behind horses. It looks to me that the other speed in here are the two inside horses; breaking from post 11, the Lava Dude should be able to get a position outside lapped on them - close to the lead, no horses in front of him, a perfectly comfortable spot for him.

[Suffolk Shippers]

As long as Lava Man is within the confines of the California borders, he is cash. Doesnt matter the pace haha

[ManilaRose]

I may be insane but I've thought since last year LM was more impressive in his turf races than dirt races. I thought outside of him just not firing that Revved Up running a huge one was his only chance of losing tomorrow. With RU's scratch I personally can't see it.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Lava Man doesn't need the lead to run well, but he doesn't like to run behind horses. It looks to me that the other speed in here are the two inside horses; breaking from post 11, the Lava Dude should be able to get a position outside lapped on them - close to the lead, no horses in front of him, a perfectly comfortable spot for him.

I agree completely. I have never been a big fan of the horse (I still have no idea why any sane person would have bet a dime on him in the BCC) but given his ideal conditions he is tough to beat. As far as I can see from his impressive performances last year he needs two things to win.
1) To be in Southern California.
2) To be in the CLEAR and NEAR the lead. He does not have to be first at every call, but he does need to have a clear path in front of him.
I think he is a solid single in this race today.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Liked Revved Up to beat him, but he's out.
Sherwood Park is my longshot play of the day
and rates big consideration to pull the upset.