FG 4

Brutal sequence with four two-turners and difficult pace scenarios.

Leg one: (7) GROOVY SCENE will not take a bunch of money but is not without a chance. Homebred is a half to a multiple SW with same trainer and rider. Briefly chased a nice filly in her turf debut then was given a race at Churchill on two year old day. She broke poorly that day yet set a blistering pace before caving in. After a month, she breezed awful in Hot Springs but Nicks shipped anyway and had to run when the off the turf heat scratched from ten down to five. Twenty well spaced morning furlongs later she shows up today in a field void of any pace and should sit a good trip for a very clever outfit. Adding four others 'Aidan, 'Jack "Anne and well bred firster Dress Uniform who scratched out of a similar spot earlier this month when the race came off.

(8) Ketchikan will be favored and probably should be but he is our single and is a bit unappetizing: first try two bends and beat nothing in his debut! Nevertheless he will stretch as a three quarter brother to Remsen runnerup Un Fino Vino and second dam has produced a horse of the year in Hong Kong and Ky Oaks queen Blusking K. D. Pinhooked for 100K, storage magnate Hughes went down for 500K and Mr. Greeley colt has always looked the part. Larry M. on board for facile maiden romp and this jock can get most anything to settle. Sufficient pace signed on for rally but giving away seasoning and likely very short on the board.

(9) GOLDEN GLEN is a good racehorse, gets Talamo and should be closest to lone speed no chance superstone. Forestry 6yo came off the shelf and cruised at CD for 50K and this spot may be easier. Anything resembling his last behind wire to wire monster suffices as only tagged horse. Adding 3-18 He's A Royal Dee who would need some luck but when right this good. Mouton/Perrodin gelding been second twice, third twice and forth twice this class and has run par in all of them.

(10) Bayou bred straight maiden brings SWITCH GRASS GAS and his customary last to somewhere finish. Richie very reliable conditioner, Campbell on board for the sixth straight heat and Malagra colt always fires...should not be a maiden much longer. Adding PELTO who had an usual trip in his debut and Lasix usually moves this type up. Call it 1,2,5,7,9 / 6 / 5,6 / 2,3 A bit short on time. Good cappin. BBB

[Kasept]

BBB,

Solid try for $20.. Turned out favorite was as far you needed to go in that first leg, which is always maddening.. Thing paid well too...

[blackthroatedwind]

This is not meant as a personal criticism, however it may be taken, but as an explanation as to why this is a perfect example of my prior criticisms of this poster's methods. You simply cannot be successful playing Pick-4s for the modest amounts this poster recommends. It is not so much that you will lose, but you will NOT win, as in this case this player should have hit the Pick-4 and collected over $600. Making up $20 may not be that hard, but making up the squandered $600 will prove impossible over time.

Hitting these multi-race bets ( specifically Pick-4s and Pick-6s ) is about two things.....having one good opinion ( MAYBE two for the Pick-6 ) and surviving the other races. This poster passed the first test with flying colors, as he found his single, and that horse won ( in this case at a very square 3-1 ). His opinion is quite obviously good. However, he failed the important test, which is using this excellent opinion to make money. And, why did he fail this test ( and not collect over $600 )? Because his play was weak and did not offer him the opportunity to cash.

Specifically, personally I think he played the first leg well, as he did not have a grasp on the race, and covered himself well. However, after that he was weak.....and why? Because he didn't bet enough combinations ( or commit enough money ). You can't go 2 x 2 and really expect to win these bets over time. You will almost always get tripped up in one ( if not both ) legs. And, while most of the time it won't matter, as your single will have lost, and you may think it was wise that you saved an additional $20-$30, this is not the case, as what happened today was that he lost 20 to 30 future $20-$30 plays. In other words, for an addition $25 today he could have gone 3 x 3 and very well have hit this thing, and thus received $600 more to invest in the future. And, with that additional money to invest, with a good opinion he may well parlay it into even more wins.

I am not saying he would have won today, and maybe he feels he couldn't have used the winner he missed, but over time he will give himself a much greater chance of hitting if his opinion is as solid as it was today. The idea is to make money and one does this by taking advantage of good opinions.

The guy claims to spend a minimum of four hours handicapping these races and I have no reason to doubt him. After doing that he valued his time at $5 an hour by investing only $20 into the Pick-4. Our time, and in his case expertise, is much more valuable than that.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is not meant as a personal criticism, however it may be taken, but as an explanation as to why this is a perfect example of my prior criticisms of this poster's methods. You simply cannot be successful playing Pick-4s for the modest amounts this poster recommends. It is not so much that you will lose, but you will NOT win, as in this case this player should have hit the Pick-4 and collected over $600. Making up $20 may not be that hard, but making up the squandered $600 will prove impossible over time.

Hitting these multi-race bets ( specifically Pick-4s and Pick-6s ) is about two things.....having one good opinion ( MAYBE two for the Pick-6 ) and surviving the other races. This poster passed the first test with flying colors, as he found his single, and that horse won ( in this case at a very square 3-1 ). His opinion is quite obviously good. However, he failed the important test, which is using this excellent opinion to make money. And, why did he fail this test ( and not collect over $600 )? Because his play was weak and did not offer him the opportunity to cash.

Specifically, personally I think he played the first leg well, as he did not have a grasp on the race, and covered himself well. However, after that he was weak.....and why? Because he didn't bet enough combinations ( or commit enough money ). You can't go 2 x 2 and really expect to win these bets over time. You will almost always get tripped up in one ( if not both ) legs. And, while most of the time it won't matter, as your single will have lost, and you may think it was wise that you saved an additional $20-$30, this is not the case, as what happened today was that he lost 20 to 30 future $20-$30 plays. In other words, for an addition $25 today he could have gone 3 x 3 and very well have hit this thing, and thus received $600 more to invest in the future. And, with that additional money to invest, with a good opinion he may well parlay it into even more wins.

I am not saying he would have won today, and maybe he feels he couldn't have used the winner he missed, but over time he will give himself a much greater chance of hitting if his opinion is as solid as it was today. The idea is to make money and one does this by taking advantage of good opinions.

The guy claims to spend a minimum of four hours handicapping these races and I have no reason to doubt him. After doing that he valued his time at $5 an hour by investing only $20 into the Pick-4. Our time, and in his case expertise, is much more valuable than that.

Boy, I just got through this entire thread.. that was some serious reading. I'll toss my 2 cents in just for giggles. In general, how others bet is their own business IMO.. I don't post many selections, ( I should try to do more) just not enough time these days. I do agree with BTW about Pick-4 spending. I had to lose enough times saying, " gee, if I only spent X more dollars I would have hit it," before realizing that if the Pick-4 was my main bet of the day, I should have put more into it! I know others disagree and prefer to spend less, and that's fine. I hope it works for them.
Anyway, felt like chiming in here. No matter where you come out on this, to me it's a been a good thread to read with some good info. thanks.

[hailrazer]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

spend some money ya cheap bastard..no one cares that you missed it for 20 bucks ..hit it for 48..duh

I understand that you don't believe his claims about figures from last year. Your disdain for his lengthy analysis is comprehendable. But I can't figure why ya'll (hooves and BTW) keep beating up on this guy. He doesn't come back and argue with you and he just keeps making picks. I volunteer to take the heat from here on out. After looking at my results from last year, I see that I placed 20 wagers of $4 to win for a total of $80 risked. I only hit at 30% but those 6 winners brought me back $52,442. I am kind of pissed because I got nosed out of another winner that would have boosted earnings up to $140,000+.

I seldom post picks but I follow most of the touts put up here. I think BBB does a good job with his picks. Even if you can't stomach BBB's claims about last year's results, I imagine you could ignore his posts instead of trying to run him off.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

I understand that you don't believe his claims about figures from last year. Your disdain for his lengthy analysis is comprehendable. But I can't figure why ya'll (hooves and BTW) keep beating up on this guy. He doesn't come back and argue with you and he just keeps making picks. I volunteer to take the heat from here on out. After looking at my results from last year, I see that I placed 20 wagers of $4 to win for a total of $80 risked. I only hit at 30% but those 6 winners brought me back $52,442. I am kind of pissed because I got nosed out of another winner that would have boosted earnings up to $140,000+.

I seldom post picks but I follow most of the touts put up here. I think BBB does a good job with his picks. Even if you can't stomach BBB's claims about last year's results, I imagine you could ignore his posts instead of trying to run him off.

Your silly assertions aside, my response was an attempt to help someone who has a good opinion, but doesn't know how to bet, perhaps at least lose a little less. His handicapping seems decent but he can never win betting in the manner he does. Perhaps he still won't win if he were to actually think about my post but it MIGHT help him have at least a chance.

BBB hasn't demonstrated that he deserves thoughtful responses, as he takes cheap shots at many different posters, and refuses to engage in dialogue, but as many people read this board I thought at least I could attempt to offer some thoughts. I don't suggest they are the be all and end all towards winning but perhaps they might at least help lead someone in the right direction. As someone who bets real money on a daily basis, and has at least had his share of success, I know that today's " wager " by BBB was at best a squandered opportunity.

As an aside, there are many people on this site who bet frequently and other than BBB and his cohorts NONE of them constantly talk about their supposed wins. I can't answer for others but maybe they don't need to try to convince themselves of anything.

If instead of lecturing, with no dialogue, BBB would like to engage in a real discussion about multi-race betting strategy I, at least, think that would be a real asset to the site.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I thought at least I could attempt to offer some thoughts. I don't suggest they are the be all and end all towards winning but perhaps they might at least help lead someone in the right direction.
As an aside, there are many people on this site who bet frequently and other than BBB and his cohorts NONE of them constantly talk about their supposed wins. I can't answer for others but maybe they don't need to try to convince themselves of anything.

If instead of lecturing, with no dialogue, BBB would like to engage in a real discussion about multi-race betting strategy I, at least, think that would be a real asset to the site.

Andy -- it's true. The SA carryover gave us a great discussion on the forum, and I think that as far as multi-race wagers are concerned, almost all of us have at least a bit to learn, myself very much included.

Your opinions may not be the be all end all of a multi-race wager discussion, but the conversation you and I had about them helped me hit a pick-3 at Fairgrounds afterwards....twice, by structuring a ticket the way we had discussed after reviewing the way I had originally been constructing them.

So with that said, no you don't definitively have the last word....but by all means you're one of the ones to look to around here for help....I humbly admit.

[hailrazer]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I'm confused. Legitimately. 20 wagers at $4 apiece.

A little bit of math concludes this HailRazer.

So, you say that you only hit 30% of those wagers. Let's play fantasy here and say that you hit ALL of them! Every single one of them. As in 100%, 20 out 20, etc.

EVEN if you hit EVERY single one of your "20 wagers of $4 to win," each of those horses would have had to have gone off at an AVERAGE of 654-1. Yes, if you had hit every one of those twenty wagers, those horses would each have had to have paid on average, at odds of 654-1!!!!

So let's get back to the fact that you only hit 30% of them. That means your six winners hit at an average of 2184-1?!

What tracks do you play, and what service carries them...because apparently there are $4,300 winners to be had for a measly two bucks out there somewhere!!!!!!!!!!!

I thought I would stump you for sure with this one, but alas, math has once again prevailed....

I actually am lucky to play less than 20 races a day. I don't wager a lot, but win bets do generally average more than $4 and I've never hit a horse over 70-1

I've been exposed. Do with me what you will.

Some fifteen or so years ago I became strictly a horizontal player and would estimate 98% of my bets are pick 4's or win bets. In fact, I was at Latonia for the first pick 3 the state of Kentucky ever offered and hit it for less than $200; even with a $27 horse involved. Driving back to Lexington I became convinced the bet was a ripoff!

That quick, emotional assessment proved quite inaccurate and with the advent of the pick 4, I became a winning player. I would not claim that I was "country before country was cool" but I do have some advantages and exploit them as best I can. Unlike its big brother the Pick 4 requires little investment, yet tons of study and by staying in the midwest I avoid the move up trainers that are ubiquitous on both coasts and the deep pocketed "wise" guys who permeate the large pools.

Prattle aside, hitting any vertical wager is more about eliminating horses than selecting winners. Yesterdays sequence was difficult on its face but as often happens somewhat vanilla when the dust had settled.

Leg one was maiden fillies going a couple of bends on the lawn and it was, as most grass heats can be, the race to spread. As usual, the money the public bets wins a third of the time and this heat fooled no one with the choice winning and the runnerups both three to one. At this point our quest for a good score was gone.

Leg two was just an awful heat but did feature a horse with a future (Ketchikan) and the Mr. Greeley sophomore delivered nicely giving his connections a very pleasant problem of "whats next". Contrary to one of the posters implying that I had a solid opinion in this leg, I did not! The poster assumed, incorrectly, that because I singled here, that it was my strongest opinion of the sequence. In fact, it was my weakest!

Tangently, leg three was my strongest opinion. I felt I was about 75% safe to advance thru this leg with my two plays, a huge stance. As a general rule taking the top two favorites will "win" the race about half the time. From a handicapping standpoint Superstone was lone speed in a two turn race and had no chance, yet his uncoupled stablemate won. Sidcup had few positives, Crossword did not figure at all, yet went favored and 'Toga scratched. The winner could have certainly been played but my analysis went as follows: Recall my poorly worded, yet useful post on the other side of this forum regarding the "task at hand" as this race offered "Bobby" a choice. As the owner/trainer of Home of Stars he had two options; 1) enter for nw3 other than, or 2) enter for 50K. He chose the former. Bear in mind, for this condition book, the Fairgrounds added State Bred to their conditions and that allowed the Illinin bred 'Stars to compete but not be tagged. I felt the horse who had not won in some 17 months could have been safely entered for 50K and then run back in the same class using the nw3x criteria. Additionally, 'Stars was a vet scratch on 1/22/07 in the same class, AND a vet scratch on 2/5/07 when entered for 50K. Sometimes you can over analyze but I have no sour grapes here other than letting this top shelf conditioner beat me!

The last leg was never more than two deep and I came close to singling the winner and would have, if I could have found other options in the other legs.
Swich Grass Gas went two turns for the first time two weeks ago and the race was much better than it looked on paper. This horse is bred for two turns and his first against fellow bayou breds showed a powerful rally from nowhere to runnerupville. Then he caught some monsters while always finishing, a commodity that many Louisiana breds lack. I added Pelto off the strength of first Lasix, being very well bet for his debut and stretching out with his Mr. P on top of 'Slew pedigree. As in his debut, he was a handful for Lonnie and may need another before firing his best. Playing the FG4 manana but have to navigate a championship basketball game, then Syracuse vs. Connecticut, then a Mardi Gras party later tonite. Still sight unseen, like my chances.

As for the respondents: K'Sept I would have almost settled for the favorite in leg one but had a question on who it would be. The winner was 3-1 into the gate, 5-2 out of it and finally 9-5 in deep stretch. For BTW I would relish a discussion on structuring multi race tickets as I have much to learn and yet will bring plenty to the table. I would request you stop calling me a "ridiculous liar" as I post ALL my bets. You can count on me hitting a pick 4 every month or so and banking at least ten grand by years end. As for being a cheap shot artist, I am not at all politically correct, and am deeply opinionated yet sorry if I offended anyone.

As for the two respondents who claim personal offense, I let you slide on on your selection and bet of a horse at FG last Sunday. The horse had ZERO chance, yet one of you claimed to bet $200 and the other made lame excuses after the drubbing. Both of you could use some instruction on how movement of the turf rail affects outcomes as one entire forum had the $25 winner! Good cappin. BBB

[blackthroatedwind]

Since you just claimed you post " all your bets ", yet have continued to insist on substantial results, yet have not posted winning bets HERE, I would have to say that while " substantial liar " may not be a kind assessment it certainly seems accurate as long as you continue to insist on successes that have simply not been substantiated. Sorry, but coming in AFTER races and referring others to some board we neither know of or care about does not substantiate anything. However, none of that really has anything to do with race and betting analysis so I am willing to let it go. I wish you success and like most honestly don't care how you have done in the past either positively or negatively.

More importantly, on the subject at hand, which is multi-race wagering, while I strongly agree that winning these bets centers more around eliminating horses than necessarily picking winners, I just as strongly disagree with your notion that small investments will produce good results over time. Not only is this not possible, it will result in a player missing substantial payoffs they would have been garnered had they played more responsibly and bet more money. The Pick-4 and Pick-6 are quite simply NOT bets that can be conquered with a small bankroll. The problem is not that you might not occasionally hit, it is really that you will miss out on winnings you should have had. I know I keep repeating this but I strongly believe it is a CRUCIAL point.

One manner where this can be accomplished is playing multiple tickets, where you narrow down three of the legs and open up the fourth. In your play yesterday you could have played three or four tickets....the original one opened up the first leg so it may well have covered that race, and as you singled the second you could have lived with that as a stand alone, and the other two could have been variations of the first ticket where you individually opened up the third and fourth legs. This would have given you very strong coverage in a play where it turned out your single was powerful.

The idea is not to prove anything when we bet.....the idea is singular and serious....and that is to WIN. In order to have any real chance to win over time in these bets you have to wager very well. Betting $12 to $24 will quite simply not allow you to wager well as you will most certainly ALWAYS be weak in at least two legs. Over time you cannot overcome this.

I apologize if you feel insulted by any of my words and hope we can move this conversation past a need to claim past successes and try to move everyone here, ourselves included, to a better level of play. Ultimately, isn't that the goal for all of us?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

The poster assumed, incorrectly, that because I singled here, that it was my strongest opinion of the sequence. In fact, it was my weakest!

In all seriousness here, no bashing at all.

Did I misunderstand the quote posted above, or do I really just have THAT much to learn about multi-race wagers?

Is it common practice for people to single on the leg in which they have the least conviction?

It seems counterintuitive to me.....is this running rampant in the game and I just don't know about it?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

[quote=bellsbendboy]a "ridiculous liar" as I post ALL my bets. You can count on me hitting a pick 4 every month or so and banking at least ten grand by years end. As for being a cheap shot artist, I am not at all politically correct, and am deeply opinionated yet sorry if I offended anyone.
in the last 8 months you have posted 1 winning pick 4 here and it was under my selections where i gave out the same horses....sorry if i offended you..bbb...