10/18: Belmont Park (New York Showcase Day)

Kasept · #1 10-18-2014, 07:22 AM

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Tizquick 6-5 WON ($2.70)
Best Value: #8 Andrew Got Zip 10-1 4th
Next Best: #6 David Rocks 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Summer Hawk 10-1 5th

2nd: 18th Sleepy Hollow-NY, 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

If Ostrolenka is such a reliable choice here, why did Pletcher/Barber keep MD Million eligible Bullheaded Boy home? This set feels slippery..

Most Likely: #2 Ostrolenka 9-5 WON ($3.30)
Best Value: #7 Good Luck Gus 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Bullheaded Boy 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Market Conduct 5-1 3rd

3rd: 18th Maid of the Mist-NY, 2yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

Romans fave 'Patty' was under BC Juvy Filly consideration..

Most Likely: #9 Temper Mint Patty 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Myfourchix 8-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Quezon 7-2 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Sandra 6-1 4th

4th: 36th Mohawk-NY, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Top 3 interchangeable..

Best Value: #1 Kharafa 5-1 WON ($15.40)
Next Best: #9 Lubash 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 King Kreesa 9-5 2nd
Super Add: #8 Notacatbutallama 6-1 4th

5th: 36th Iroquois-NY, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 La Verdad 7-5 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #4 Willet 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Risky Rachel 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Irish Whisper 15-1 8th

<$75 P5 Grid:

1: 2 (A), - (B), 6-7-8 (C)
2: 2-7 (A), 3-5 (B), 4 (C)
3: 9 (A), 4 (B), 6 (C)
4: 1-3-9 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
5: 4-8 (A), 6 (B), 5 (C)

A/B: $48
Full A/B/C: $70 $0.50 Pick-5 (1,2/2/6/1/8,9) Paid $161.25

<$60 P4 Grid:

2: 2-7 (A), 3-5 (B), 4 (C)
3: 9 (A), 4 (B), 6 (C)
4: 1-3-9 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
5: 4-8 (A), 6 (B), 5 (C)

A/B: $36
Full A/B/C: $52 $0.50 Pick-4 (2/6/1/8,9) Paid $62.87

6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Ode to the Hunt 7-2 WON ($10.40)
Best Value: #1 Scooby Dude 12-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Persuasive Devil 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Brother O'Connell 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Threes Are Wild 8-1 8th

7th: 1st Empire Distaff-NY, F&M-3+, 8.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Who besides Carameaway is going to want to challenge Princess Violet? Do they go 1-2 all the way? Rosario and Sunny Desert is the intrigue..

Most Likely: #5 Princess Violet 5-2 WON ($4.70)
Best Value: #3 Sunny Desert 5-1 8th
Next Best: #1a (POE) Carameaway 7-2 3rd/7th
Exotics Use: #6 Lady Gracenote 20-1 4th

8th: 39th Empire Classic-NY, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Start of late P4 that has excellent potential and premium playability if you fully support Discreet Marq in the 9th. This is a good group of hard-hitters with authentic pace that should provide all with an honest chance. Defending winner Saratoga Snacks faces a more challenging set here than a year ago and his summer form appears to make him a vulnerable fave. Should be set for best but that may not be enough. Three year olds are a big part of this and emergent Sioux looms imposing with continued forward progress and if the 9th panel is to his liking. Fellow sophs So Lonesome, Effinex and Eye Luv Lulu have equal upside. Just no easy eliminations here..

Most Likely: #8 Sioux 5-2 7th
Best Value: #5 Effinex 15-1 WON ($37.20)
Next Best: #3 Saratoga Snacks 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Eye Luv Lulu 15-1 5th

9th: 34th Ticonderoga-NY, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Discreet Marq 8-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #6 Strike Accord 15-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Invading Humor 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Effie Trinket 9-2 4th

10th: 37th Hudson-NY, 3+, 6.5f (DD)

As competitive as the Classic..

Most Likely: #7 Moonlight Song 6-1 WON ($12.60)
Best Value: #10 Captain Serious 10-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Big Business 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 West Hills Giant 12-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (7-5) Paid $35.75
$1 Trifecta (7-5-2) Paid $244.75
$1 Superfecta (7-5-2-10) Paid $1,462.00

11th: NY-MSW, 3+,

Best Value: #5 Manoffire 6-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Spider Roll 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Runaway Posse 4-1 WON ($7.90)
Super Add: #4 Spark to Ignite 5-1 8th

<$100 P4 Grid:

8: 3-5-8 (A), 4-6-7 (B), 1-2 (C)
9: 10 (A), - (B), 5-6-9 (C)
10: 7-10 (A), 2-4-5-6 (B), 6-9 (C)
11: 5-11 (A), 3-4 (B), 2-8 (C)

A/B $72; Full A/B/C: $100 $0.50 Pick-4 (5/4,10,13,14,15/7/3) Paid $431.00

Good luck!
Steve