8/20: Saratoga ~ Day 26 (Alabama; $40k C/O); Del Mar (6th-9th)

Kasept · #1 08-20-2016, 05:49 AM

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, F&M-3+,6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Liberty Fuze 3rd
Next Best: #5 Mastic WON ($9.10)
Exotics Use: #3 Spectacular Flash 5th
Super Add #6 Distinctive Lady 2nd

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Start with Pletcher (Driven to Compete), Brown (Mr Classical SCR), Asmussen (Unstabled) and feather in from there with experienced runners from Schettino's Always Dreaming (half to Hot Dixie Chick) and Lukas' Blame Will (first time on fast/dry strip). Killybegs Captain from Ward has been the workmate of Friday Skidmore (5.5f-T) winner Harlan's Harmony..

Most Likely: #5 Driven to Compete 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Unstabled 9-2 9th
Best Value: #9 Blame Will 10-1 WON ($8.30)
Exotics Use: #4 Always Dreaming 5-1 2nd

3rd: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD)

I've struggled with the 9f events here this season in general. Phil Bauer ships in from Churchill with $340k Nickel who ran into Wilkes' Bird Sense at Ellis. Lures Castellano and unknown connection factor may move price up from 2-1 ML. Black-Eyed Susan runner-up MDN Ma Can Do It SCR, a favorite of Tammy Fox who has earned nearly $200k without a diploma, has constantly found excellent company. Today too..

Most Likely: #6 Nickel 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Opined 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Sherini 8-1 WON ($8.60)

4th: S/ALW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Scout Leader 8-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #6 St. Louie 4-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Gloves Off 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Red Drum 3-1 4th

5th: Troy, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Disco Partner 12-1 WON ($10.40)
Next Best: #5 Green Mask 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Songsational 12-1 7th
Super Add: #11 Rainbow Heir 8-1 3rd

P5 Grid:

1: 4-5 (A), 2-3-6 (B), - (C)
2: 3-5 (A), 4-7-9 (B), 2-10 (C)
3: 6 (A), - (B), 2-4 (C)
4: 2-6 (A),- (B), 3-5 (C)
5: 5-6-9 (A), - (B), 4-7-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x5x1x2x3 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 2x2x1x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

P4 Grid:

2: 3-5 (A), 4-7-9 (B), 2-10 (C)
3: 6 (A), - (B), 2-4 (C)
4: 2-6 (A),- (B), 3-5 (C)
5: 5-6-9 (A), 1-4-7-11 (B), (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x4x7 = 140 x .50 = $70
All A's: 2x1x2x3 = $12

6th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Oscar Performance 6-1 WON ($14.00)
Best Value: #5 Rule Yourself 10-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Focus Group 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Bigboldbok 8-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Unbridled Eagle 6-1 7th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$60k P6 C/O starts here..

Deep group that has all the markings of an important assembly going forward..

Most Likely: #7 Teletap 4-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Seven Forty Seven 20-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Favorable Outcome 7-2 WON ($9.90)
Exotics Use: #10 Nerinx 12-1 6th

8th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Very odd assembly. Will try double digits on Pletcher/Eclipse with Brinkley & Saez who can set up shop behind the speeds..

Best Value: #1 Brinkley 12-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Rumble Doll 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Orient Harbor 6-1 8th
Super Add: #10 Ava's Kitten 9-5 WON ($6.20)

P4 Grid:

5: 5-9 (A), - (B), 1-4-6-7-11 (C)
6: 5-11 (A), 7-8 (B), 1-10 (C)
7: 3-7-9 (A), - (B), 4-5-10 (C)
8: 1-4-5 (A), 7-9-10 (B), 3-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick 4 (9-11-3-10) Paid $298.50

9th: Fourstardave H. (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD, SAR-DMR P4 ~ Play at page bottom)

Best Value: #7 A Lot 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Force the Pass 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Tourist 5-2 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #6 Ring Weekend 3-1 6th

10th: Alabama (G1), 3yo-F, 10f (P3, DD)

Don't agree with the claim that 'you're obliged to bet against Songbird'. You're not. And while some short priced Alabama favorites have been beaten, including Devil May Care who lost to Blind Luck, none came to this assignment at this point in their career with as impressive a resume or appearance of dominance as the Hollendorfer filly. While she doesn't have to have the lead, expect her to pull a Privman, "establishing herself in front and improving her position from there"..

Most Likely: #6 Songbird 1-5 WON ($2.40)
Best Value: #5 Family Tree 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Go Maggie Go 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Going for Broke 10-1 2nd

11th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)

10-1 Sanctify cleared this condition in May '15. Has won here, gets class relief and cozy draw for style that suits race shape. Yahtzee.. (NOTE: Watch for the AE's. Both dangerous)..

Best Value: #2 Sanctify 10-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Converge 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Orino 10-1 WON ($14.60)
Super Add: #6 Dream Doctor 8-1 2nd

P4 Grid:

8: 1-4-5 (A), 7-9-10 (B), 3-6 (C)
9: 4-7 (A), 6-8 (B), 1-2 (C)
10: 6 (A), - (B), 3-4-5 (C)
11: 2-3 (A), 1-6 (B), 4-5-7-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x4x1x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x1x2 = $12

$0.50 Pick-4 (2,8,10,11/8/6/1) Paid $104.37

12th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T

Best Value: #12 I Hope You Dance Late SCR
Next Best: #11 Cosmic Tale 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #5 True Charm 12-1 WON ($17.40)
Super Add: #2 Celestial Sighting 10-1 8th

<$200 Simple 'Caveman' P6:

7: 3-7-9
8: 1-4
9: 4-7
10: 6
11: 2-3
12: 2-5-11-12/SCR

3x2x2x1x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192

DEL MAR

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: 60th Del Mar Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Terrific cast..

Most Likely: #10 Stays in Vegas 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Decked Out 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Harmonize 9-2 WON ($9.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Barleysugar 5-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Mokat 7-2 4th

7th: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value #2 Moe Candy 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Miner's Light 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Twirling 4-1 7th
Super Add: #10 Ketos 7-2 4th

8th: 77th Del Mar H. (G2), 3+, 11f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #11 Patentar 20-1 9th
Next Best: #7 Flamboyant 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Ashleyluvssugar 3-1 WON ($7.00)
Super Add: #4 Metaboss 4-1 2nd

9th: 26th Pacific Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (P3, DD)

Doesn't get more entertaining than this. One established and one emerging handicap star versus the top race mare of her generation. I'll take opportunity to back Dortmund figuring that despite being 2nd choice on the ML, he'll be 3rd price on the board at post time. He's got upside yet. But it's simply a pleasure having these three meet and while there will be 8 runners that 'lose' tonight, racing and its' supporters win big..

Best Value: #8 Dortmund 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 California Chrome 8-5 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Beholder 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Hard Aces 15-1 9th

SAR-DMR P4 Grid:

SAR 9: 4-6-7-8 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)
SAR 10: 6 (A), - (B), 3-4-5 (C)
DMR 8: 7-8-11 (A), 2-4-6 (B), 3-9 (C)
DMR 9: 1-7-8 (A), - (B), 2-5-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x6x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 4x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick 4 (8-6-8-1) Paid $22.95

Good luck!
Steve