F/M Sprint pace situation.....

[taxicab]

I've looked long and hard at this race.....
I can't find a horse that resembles anything close to a speedball.
If the old saying "pace makes the race" applies,won't the horse up top have a nice edge in this one ?
So....
The leader at the quarter and half will be......????
I got nothing....
I'm thinking a horse who hasn't shown a ton of early lick might gun via a jockey decision(they can read the form also....).

[RHT2004]

I think Tara's Tango is going to be very tough to beat.

[senator L]

Looks like it will be Carina Mia up front
Leparoux is a good front running jockey too
Don't know who to take yet but Finest City on the
cut back looks pretty good. Almost got to Avenge in her latest

[philcski]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I think Tara's Tango is going to be very tough to beat.

Why I love the Breeders Cup... I think she's got no shot. But that's why they run the races.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by philcski

Why I love the Breeders Cup... I think she's got no shot. But that's why they run the races.

A few guys much smarter then me like her a lot on twitter for whatever that's worth.

[Thunder Gulch]

I had Gloryzapper or Paulasilverlining getting the early lead, but I agree it was tough. Expecting it to be modest either way.

[pmayjr]

I think Gloryzapper is lone speed. Because of that I'm using her in exotics.

Paola Queen might go to the front only because she drew the rail. Carina Mia has done it in the past. But its not their strength.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

I think Gloryzapper is lone speed. Because of that I'm using her in exotics.

Paola Queen might go to the front only because she drew the rail. Carina Mia has done it in the past. But its not their strength.

I don't know about this, Pete. I think Haveyougoneaway may be a tick faster. As is Paulassilverlining, but not by as much.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by senator L

Looks like it will be Carina Mia up front
Leparoux is a good front running jockey too
Don't know who to take yet but Finest City on the
cut back looks pretty good. Almost got to Avenge in her latest

I really like this horse and the post is fine going 7F, I've got no concerns there. I would however like to know why Desormeaux isn't taking this mount and Smith (who's never ridden her) is up. Seems very odd. Pacewise it looks to me like Wavell Avenue and By the Moon will benefit the most, but Haveyougoneaway may be closer and the toughest to get by.

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I don't know about this, Pete. I think Haveyougoneaway may be a tick faster. As is Paulassilverlining, but not by as much.

My concern is... So Gloryzapper has been on the lead/pressed in each race. But if you look at her fractions, they're fast, but not sizzling.

Like if someone presses her and she's forced to go 22.2, 44 and change, etc.
A) can she go that fast?
B) can she maintain it for 7f (probably not)?

But I still have trouble seeing who really wants to go to the front with her. A lot of horses will press/stalk her, but I really think she'll be in the lead going into the stretch. She might drop anchor there, but I still think she's in front early on

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

My concern is... So Gloryzapper has been on the lead/pressed in each race. But if you look at her fractions, they're fast, but not sizzling.

Like if someone presses her and she's forced to go 22.2, 44 and change, etc.
A) can she go that fast?
B) can she maintain it for 7f (probably not)?

But I still have trouble seeing who really wants to go to the front with her. A lot of horses will press/stalk her, but I really think she'll be in the lead going into the stretch. She might drop anchor there, but I still think she's in front early on

My first thoughts on this race were gloryzapper can take these a long way in the front and if nobody else presses can wire the field.

[Rudeboyelvis]

There are about 5 solid speed factors in here and I don't think any are markedly quicker than the other - for me, Gloryzapper is 4th or 5th quickest out of the bunch. I think Wonder Gal and Haveyougoneaway are likely the two quickest, followed by the rest, but again I don't think there is a lengths difference between them.

Point being I don't think anyone is going to get a clear lead, though Wonder Gal likely needs it to have any shot.

I'm pretty much sold on the 2, but will add 6 and 10 in the case of a stampede on the front

[senator L]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I really like this horse and the post is fine going 7F, I've got no concerns there. I would however like to know why Desormeaux isn't taking this mount and Smith (who's never ridden her) is up. Seems very odd. Pacewise it looks to me like Wavell Avenue and By the Moon will benefit the most, but Haveyougoneaway may be closer and the toughest to get by.

Unless I know why the jockey got replaced I usually don't pay much
attention to it. In this case I don't think it makes much difference as Smith
has a way with the ladies. The more I look the more Haveyougoneaway looks the winner. It also concerns me that Finest City has never won on the SA dirt
but her best races have been with outside posts, so maybe today's the day

[taxicab]

FWIW: When the gate is full at 7 Furlongs @ Santa Anita the inside posts generally break a length+ slow.
So that could hinder some early lick from the inside.
Dare I play the "cliché" card here........due to the lack of pure .44 speed,this could be a Jockeys race.
Maybe come up with a jockey that has been known to think outside of the box.
Mike Smith will surprise and send when not expected on occasion.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by taxicab

FWIW: When the gate is full at 7 Furlongs @ Santa Anita the inside posts generally break a length+ slow.
So that could hinder some early lick from the inside.
Dare I play the "cliché" card here........due to the lack of pure .44 speed,this could be a Jockeys race.
Maybe come up with a jockey that has been known to think outside of the box.
Mike Smith will surprise and send when not expected on occasion.

Mike Smith is A good bet in a Breeders Cup race. I have him Over 2.5 wins in Breeders cup races this weekend

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by jms62

Mike Smith is A good bet in a Breeders Cup race. I have him Over 2.5 wins in Breeders cup races this weekend

Really? Wow. I have his best chance of winning tomorrow as Songbird, and I don't even think that's likely. He must have one hell of a Saturday lined up for you to like him to win 3 races or more.

Best of luck this weekend Jim. Hope you connect on a few bets that you swing for the fences!

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Really? Wow. I have his best chance of winning tomorrow as Songbird, and I don't even think that's likely. He must have one hell of a Saturday lined up for you to like him to win 3 races or more.

Best of luck this weekend Jim. Hope you connect on a few bets that you swing for the fences!

Really?? Arrogate, Coasted and Tamarkuz is 3 right?
Its funny because Bird and MasO will blow me out of everything and I won't cover either horse at all!! And they will likely be 6-5 and 7-5 at post time.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Really?? Arrogate, Coasted and Tamarkuz is 3 right?
Its funny because Bird and MasO will blow me out of everything and I won't cover either horse at all!! And they will likely be 6-5 and 7-5 at post time.

You're counting Tamarkuz? Isn't he running against the best horse in training?!?

And while I like Coasted as a price play, that race is so wide open that it's beyond foolish to count that as a likely win.

Which brings us to Arrogate. Sure, he can win with the right relaxed trip, but you'll be playing that horse at short odds? When has he ever had to fend off a challenge from the REAL best horse(s) in training?


Tonight's sleep (or lack thereof) is bringing me BACK to my childhood Christmas Eve nights. Not a wink of sleep to be had. Ready to rock n roll!

[jms62]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Really? Wow. I have his best chance of winning tomorrow as Songbird, and I don't even think that's likely. He must have one hell of a Saturday lined up for you to like him to win 3 races or more.

Best of luck this weekend Jim. Hope you connect on a few bets that you swing for the fences!

Fat fingers 1.5

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

There are about 5 solid speed factors in here and I don't think any are markedly quicker than the other - for me, Gloryzapper is 4th or 5th quickest out of the bunch. I think Wonder Gal and Haveyougoneaway are likely the two quickest, followed by the rest, but again I don't think there is a lengths difference between them.

Point being I don't think anyone is going to get a clear lead, though Wonder Gal likely needs it to have any shot.

I'm pretty much sold on the 2, but will add 6 and 10 in the case of a stampede on the front

I totally agree on the 2... She'll be a short price, but she's a must use with her current form.

But we agree to disagree on the pace scenario (which probably means you're right lol). You're right that there are horses that are capable of putting up really fast fractions. But Gloryzapper is the only horse that wants/does the most damage on the front end.

We can debate all day who goes with her, but if she gets out and is able to set a low-mid 22 for the opening quarter, and a half close to 45, I think she could really dig in and be tough to pass. I think she's lone spped, it just depends on how fast she has to go early to get the lead.

The 2 horses that are most likely to kill my theory (but don't thrive on being up close/on lead)- #1Paola Queen because she drew the rail and might be sent hard for that reason, and Carina Mia who has set the pace in previous races. But neither horse seems to be at their best when vying for the lead early on.