7/23-24 (SAR): CCA Oaks (G1); Caress

[Kasept]

[Kasept]

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Elates coming out party. Exciting times.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Elates coming out party. Exciting times.

That sure was a cute little stakes she won at Delaware over 3 other horses.

Two of them came back to win. Analyze, who ran last, came back to win a first-condition allowance in desperate fashion at 3-5. Teresa Z shipped over to face the monsters that line up for non-winners once allowances at Penn National and romped.

Of course, the only horse from the Light Hearted (apropos name) to actually face stakes horses next out, Modacious, came back to run...you guessed it...dead last in the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks.

Ironically enough, the winner of that race, It Tiz Well--an understudy of Unique Bella--defeated elate by 5 lengths in the Honey Bee at Oaklawn. It Tiz Well beat Modacious by over 8 lengths. On strict form, that should have been good enough for Elate to finish second-to-last in the Delware Oaks.

It's not all bad news though, Elate couldn't possibly run any worse in this Grade 1 than she did in her only other Grade 1 start (DNF, vanned off).

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

That sure was a cute little stakes she won at Delaware over 3 other horses.

Two of them came back to win. Analyze, who ran last, came back to win a first-condition allowance in desperate fashion at 3-5. Teresa Z shipped over to face the monsters that line up for non-winners once allowances at Penn National and romped.

Of course, the only horse from the Light Hearted (apropos name) to actually face stakes horses next out, Modacious, came back to run...you guessed it...dead last in the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks.

Ironically enough, the winner of that race, It Tiz Well--an understudy of Unique Bella--defeated elate by 5 lengths in the Honey Bee at Oaklawn. It Tiz Well beat Modacious by over 8 lengths. On strict form, that should have been good enough for Elate to finish second-to-last in the Delware Oaks.

It's not all bad news though, Elate couldn't possibly run any worse in this Grade 1 than she did in her only other Grade 1 start (DNF, vanned off).

You are 2 sharp to totally disregard her like this.

[RHT2004]

I think she wires this field. No way Jose is not out dictating terms with this draw.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I think she wires this field. No way Jose is not out dictating terms with this draw.

If all 3 stay in, my guess is Casse will send either Corporate Queen or Summer Luck to the front. Salty likes to make sustained runs down the backstretch, so even if she taxes herself in the stretch, she still is unlikely to let Elate get away on the turn.

Abel Tasman has displayed push-button form in a couple of races (Acorn, Santa Ysabel) this year. My guess is Smith will simply sit loaded throughout and then blow them away on the turn. She's not beholden to the pace.

All that aside, Elate hardly possesses sharp early speed to begin with. She may make the front end, but there's no guarantee she can dictate terms if she is challenged early.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

If all 3 stay in, my guess is Casse will send either Corporate Queen or Summer Luck to the front. Salty likes to make sustained runs down the backstretch, so even if she taxes herself in the stretch, she still is unlikely to let Elate get away on the turn.

Abel Tasman has displayed push-button form in a couple of races (Acorn, Santa Ysabel) this year. My guess is Smith will simply sit loaded throughout and then blow them away on the turn. She's not beholden to the pace.

All that aside, Elate hardly possesses sharp early speed to begin with. She may make the front end, but there's no guarantee she can dictate terms if she is challenged early.

Isnt the way to beat, all things being equal, a horse like Abel Talesman is just the way that unfolded in the SA Oaks, a fast talented horse setting real fractions and running them off their feet so to speak. I actually think slow paces dont help against horses with great turns of foot, of course I have been saying that to you on message boards for the better part of 15 years so its not a novel opinion.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Isnt the way to beat, all things being equal, a horse like Abel Talesman is just the way that unfolded in the SA Oaks, a fast talented horse setting real fractions and running them off their feet so to speak.

That's how you beat a blinkers-less Abel Tasman maybe.

Regardless, Elate does not have that sort of speed. In fact, she herself was run off her feet in a minor stakes at Tampa by Tapa Tapa Tapa.

I'm not convinced Abel Tasman was without some sort of "hidden" excuse in the Santa Anita Oaks. There was a barn switch and an equipment change afterwards. If she had a race or two under her belt prior to the Santa Ysabel, it would not be far-fetched to say she would have run down Unique Bella. She zeroed in on her at the 1/8 pole but ran like a classic short horse the rest of the way.

The SA Oaks doesn't fit with her other races.

[RHT2004]

Rollo 10pt appreciate the healthy discussion.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

That's how you beat a blinkers-less Abel Tasman maybe.

Regardless, Elate does not have that sort of speed. In fact, she herself was run off her feet in a minor stakes at Tampa by Tapa Tapa Tapa.

I'm not convinced Abel Tasman was without some sort of "hidden" excuse in the Santa Anita Oaks. There was a barn switch and an equipment change afterwards. If she had a race or two under her belt prior to the Santa Ysabel, it would not be far-fetched to say she would have run down Unique Bella. She zeroed in on her at the 1/8 pole but ran like a classic short horse the rest of the way.

The SA Oaks doesn't fit with her other races.

Im with you on AT. You know i love Bob and Mike. I just feel Elate is better then she looks. I wont be surprised at all if she wires. Ill be betting her, because if im right now is the time.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Im with you on AT. You know i love Bob and Mike. I just feel Elate is better then she looks. I wont be surprised at all if she wires. Ill be betting her, because if im right now is the time.

I just took a look at the race...turf marathons have more pace than this race.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I just took a look at the race...turf marathons have more pace than this race.

Yup. Impossible for me to believe the plan isn't to make the top. From the rail with an aggressive rider. She makes the lead easily.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I just feel Elate is better then she looks. I wont be surprised at all if she wires. Ill be betting her, because if im right now is the time.

Even here, because of the presumed advantage of lone speed, Elate will probably be an underlay. Furthermore, she is on the short list for "Money Burner of the Year".

Beyond that, looking at the field and the form, I have to think that the main reason that Elate and Berned--who is making a quick turnaround of 15 days--are even in there is to try and earn the all-important Grade 1-placing necessary to bring big $$$ at the November Keeneland sale.

If that is true, Mott's instructions to Ortiz may be tailored towards holding on to a placing rather than trying to take it to Abel Tasman.

Additionally, don't forget that 9f is new terrority for this one as well.

[10 pnt move up]

After looking at this race I really feel like Salty may be pretty tough.

She should get the jump on her only real rival and for some reason I just dont see Baffert being fully cranked when an Alabama win surely seals the 3yo filly division.

Just feels like a two horse race, one horse has the pace advantage and a better price so I would weight most of a multi race play that way.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

After looking at this race I really feel like Salty may be pretty tough.

She should get the jump on her only real rival and for some reason I just dont see Baffert being fully cranked when an Alabama win surely seals the 3yo filly division.

Just feels like a two horse race, one horse has the pace advantage and a better price so I would weight most of a multi race play that way.

Watching the replay of the Acorn, it was Abel Tasman who got the jump on Salty. Abel Tasman was literally "bounding along" after the first 1/4 mile and accelerated dramatically when asked.

Salty, on the other hand, seems like a horse that takes her time getting in gear.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Watching the replay of the Acorn, it was Abel Tasman who got the jump on Salty. Abel Tasman was literally "bounding along" after the first 1/4 mile and accelerated dramatically when asked.

Salty, on the other hand, seems like a horse that takes her time getting in gear.

that is true

and while there is no reason I wouldnt mind seeing Abel Tasman run on the turf, she has that burst.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

and while there is no reason I wouldnt mind seeing Abel Tasman run on the turf, she has that burst.

I think Quality Road's first Grade 1 winner was Hootenanny who won the BC Juvenile Turf a few years ago. Either way, Quality Road might pull off a monumental sire performance if he can get the exacta in the Acorn, CCA Oaks, and Alabama with these two fillies.

Back to the CCA Oaks, you may be on to something with Salty. She was very resolute in the stretch in the Acorn, driving all the way to the wire. In the Gulfstream Park Oaks, she uncorked a sustained rally from about as early as the 1/2 mile pole and yet continued to pour it on in the stretch.

Granted, that was against weaker, but considering that in this race she has a furlong more to work with than the Acorn, perhaps that is a tick in her favor despite Abel Tasman's KY Oaks win at the distance. Earlier, I said Abel Tasman was short in the Santa Ysabel, but there's also the chance that she might "wait" on horses. That could have been the reason for Smith recommending the addition of blinkers after the SA Oaks.

[10 pnt move up]

The bad : I bet Weather Wiz off that strong looking mdn and for a reason I dont quite understand the rider took him off the rail, took back, with a one paced horse and never could get by the winner, who also looked one paced.

The good : I bet the winner of the mdn race back in the 4th and the horse aired. damn mind game this sport is.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

The bad : I bet Weather Wiz off that strong looking mdn and for a reason I dont quite understand the rider took him off the rail, took back, with a one paced horse and never could get by the winner, who also looked one paced.

The good : I bet the winner of the mdn race back in the 4th and the horse aired. damn mind game this sport is.

Elate will be tough today.