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  #1  
Old 08-19-2018, 06:21 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,291
Default 8/19: Saratoga (Day 27); Del Mar ($786k P5 C/O)

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Miss Nancy 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 (POE) Glory to Kitten 9-5 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #4 Silver Magnolia 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Miss Aja Brown 5-1 7th


2nd: MSW, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Timber Ghost 6-1 WON ($11.00)
Next Best: #1 Asdaaf 2-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Pennyforyourthoughts 5-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Leinster 5-2 2nd


3rd: MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Tap Tap Taparoo 10-1 WON ($21.60)
Next Best: #8 Alternative Energy 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Overheated 12-1 9th
Super Add: #7 Stylishly 10-1 7th


4th: Summer Colony-R, F&M-4+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Awestruck 7-5 4th
Best Value: #3 Forever Liesl 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Moonlit Garden 9-5 WON ($6.30)


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Newspaperofrecord 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #1 Sister Kitten 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Alasaayil 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Shannon's Girl 7-2 5th


P5 Grid:

1: 1-4-7 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
2: 1-7 (A), 4-8 (B), 6 (C)
3: 8-10 (A), - (B), 4-6-7 (C)
4: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
5: 5 (A), 1 (B), 4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-5 (1,8/7/10/4/5,11,12,13) Paid $758.75


P4 Grid:

2: 1-7 (A), 4-8 (B), 6 (C)
3: 8-10 (A), 4 (B), 6-7 (C)
4: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
5: 1-5 (A), - (B), 4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

$0.50 Pick-4 (7/10/4/5,11,12,13) Paid $313.50


6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Crazily competitive lawn dash..

Best Value: #7 We Should Talk 8-1 WON ($13.40)
Next Best: #2 Fast Getaway 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Vitsal 2-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Outrageous Bet 12-1 2nd


7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Flatter My Heart 7-2 6th
Next Best: #2 Mo Wheels Up 3-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Two Dozen Roses 10-1 WON-Up via DQ ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #9 China Cat 9-2 7th


8th: Opt CLM/C, 4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Wonderful Light 5-2 6th
Best Value: #3 Behavioral Bias 7-2 4th
Next Best: #1 Favorable Outcome 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Life in Shambles 5-1 5th


9th: Opt CLM/C, 3yo, 9.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #5 Nakamura 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Admission Office 7-5 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #7 War Chest 8-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Strike 4-1 6th


10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f

Most Likely: #1 Fortythreeoeight N 7-2 9th
Best Value: #11 Over Rider 15-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Generalist 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Comeoncomecat 5-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

6: 2-3-7 (A), - (B), 1-4-5 (C)
7: 2-8 (A), - (B), 5-9 (C)
8: 3-4 (A), 1-2 (B), 6-7 (C)
9: 5-9 (A), - (B), 7-10 (C)
10: 1-11 (A), 2-3 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x2x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 3x2x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

7: 2-5-8 (A), - (B), 1-9 (C)
8: 3-4 (A), 1-2 (B), 6-7 (C)
9: 5-7-9 (A), - (B), 8-10 (C)
10: 1-11 (A), 2-3 (B), 4-6-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18



DEL MAR


PRE-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

$786k P5 C/O starts here.. Pot could hit $4MM..

Not a lot of speed here and big plays will buy the race..

Most Likely: #5 Avanti Bello 5-2 6th
Next Best: #6 Point Piper 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Mercer Island 7-2 WON ($11.20)
Super Add: #1 Beantown Boys 4-1 4th


2nd: CLM, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Four on the lead types (2-3-4-5) and three closers (1-6-7)..

Most Likely: #1 Heartfullofstars 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Royal Creed 5-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Candy Crew 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Hoss Cartwright 6-1 6th


3rd: Opt CLM/C, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Quebec 5-2 WON ($8.00)
Next Best: #1 Helen Hillary 7-2 -
Exotics Use: #3 Dominating Woman 3-1 4th
Super Add: #7 A Little Bit Me 5-1 3rd


4th: Cal-OC/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Headley sends VERY nice pair in 3yo Surfing Star (first out winner in February) and 4yo The Street Fighter (last seen in ambitious Malibu try). Perfect Wager flies late out of open company S/ALW win. King Abner returns to dirt and Churchill CLM win fits here. Small budget plays will lean on Surfing Star as a single..

Most Likely: #2 Surfing Star 5-2 6th
Next Best: #4 King Abner 3-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Perfect Wager 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 The Street Fighter 7-2 7th


5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Tricky finish to potential payday with MDN's turf sprinting. Sadler/Van Dyke/Hronis look potent outside with Point of Entry (17% debut winners) miss. Carla Gaines historically bad first out but it looks like Midnight in Dixie is a runner. Orageuse (Mandella) makes soph debut here and Fiftyeight Special should like the turf..

Best Value: #7 Midnight in Dixie 8-1 4th
Next Best: #12 Tantara 7-2 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Fiftyeight Special 8-1 8th
Super Add: #3 Orageuse 5-1 9th


P5 Grid:

1: 5-6 (A), 1-4 (B), 2-3 (C)
2: 1-4 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
3: 1-6 (A), 3 (B), 7 (C)
4: 2-4 (A), - (B), 1-5-6 (C)
5: 7-4-12 (A), - (B), 3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

2: 1-4 (A), 2-5 (B), 3-6-7 (C)
3: 1-6 (A), 3 (B), 7 (C)
4: 2-4 (A), - (B), 1-5-6 (C)
5: 3-4-7-12 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x4 = 32 x .50 = $16


Good luck!
Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans

Last edited by Kasept : 08-19-2018 at 09:23 PM.
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  #2  
Old 08-19-2018, 02:42 PM
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moses moses is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 3,622
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Steve, great call on the 10 in Race 3 and the 7 in Race 2. The $1 Pick 3 for R1-R3 paid $211.50! And that was with a Race 1 winner that paid $3.80.
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  #3  
Old 08-19-2018, 02:44 PM
Conrad Conrad is offline
Randwyck
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 1,289
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Sar R4
Pick 3: 1 w 1-5-9 w 2-4-6-7
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  #4  
Old 08-19-2018, 03:25 PM
mclem0822 mclem0822 is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Jacksonville, Florida
Posts: 5,093
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Great job Steve!
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"Relax, alright? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring; besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. It's more democratic."-- Crash Davis
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  #5  
Old 08-19-2018, 03:30 PM
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moses moses is offline
Oriental Park
 
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Posts: 3,622
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Awesome so far today Steve! You could miss every race from here on out and still have a great day. Pick 5 paid $1500+.
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  #6  
Old 08-19-2018, 03:40 PM
cassie cassie is offline
Monmouth Park
 
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Posts: 787
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thanks steve 2 200$ pick 3s and a $300 pick 4 wit a very little investment
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  #7  
Old 08-19-2018, 03:59 PM
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moses moses is offline
Oriental Park
 
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Posts: 3,622
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And the hits keep coming!

I barely bet today...should have just copied all your bets. You’re on fire!
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  #8  
Old 08-19-2018, 04:10 PM
ScottJ ScottJ is offline
Narragansett Park
 
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Posts: 585
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I do not know how much you play on a Sunday, Steve, but I hope that you are playing today - terrific job on landing your (A) selections in the opening Pick-5.
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  #9  
Old 08-19-2018, 05:43 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,291
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Thanks all. Had a great Loose on the Lead this morning with Lenny Shulman, Sean Clancy and Eskimo Kisses owner Harold Lerner and it's been a particularly fun afternoon..

Hope everyone got something nice today! Goodl luck the rest of the way.. Headed to Winslow's to meet a group for dinner.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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  #10  
Old 08-20-2018, 09:25 AM
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knickslions2 knickslions2 is offline
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Location: Ohio
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Solid work Steve. Congrats
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