3/23 (FG): Louisiana Derby Day

[Kasept]

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by Kasept

3/23 (FG): LA DERBY ~ 100-40-20-10

1) Roiland (Amoss/Graham) 12-1
2) Lemniscate (McPeek/B. Hernandez) 15-1
3) Limonite (Asmussen/J. Ortiz) 20-1
4) Sueno (Desormeaux/Lanerie) 8-1
5) By My Standards (Calhoun/G. Saez) 12-1
6) War of Will (Casse/Gaffalione) 6-5
7) Mr. Money (Calhoun/Beschizza) 20-1
8) Country House (Mott/Saez) 9-2
9) Bankit (Asmussen/I. Ortiz) 20-1
10) Spinoff (Pletcher/Velazquez) 8-1
11) Hog Creek Hustle (Foley/Mena) 12-1

Country House and Spinoff for me.

[moses]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Country House and Spinoff for me.

I’m going to watch each horse again but that’s where I’m leaning. I like WOW but I’d guess his odds will make him unplayable.

[RHT2004]

Im torn on the 11th. Bricks is one of my all time favorite horses. He will also be 4-5 vs a strong group. Im not using War of will at all so maybe you just single Bricks and find your price in other spots.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Im torn on the 11th. Bricks is one of my all time favorite horses. He will also be 4-5 vs a strong group. Im not using War of will at all so maybe you just single Bricks and find your price in other spots.

So War of Will appears to face the softest pace he's had to deal with yet, but you think he's a total pitch?

You have a good opinion, but just tossing chalk because it's chalk likely doesn't help you. Why are you tossing this horse?

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

So War of Will appears to face the softest pace he's had to deal with yet, but you think he's a total pitch?

You have a good opinion, but just tossing chalk because it's chalk likely doesn't help you. Why are you tossing this horse?

Not Baffert, Mott, Pletcher or Brown trained.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

So War of Will appears to face the softest pace he's had to deal with yet, but you think he's a total pitch?

You have a good opinion, but just tossing chalk because it's chalk likely doesn't help you. Why are you tossing this horse?

I like Country House. Im going to back up with Pletchers horse. Why back up with a heavy favorite? Im playing the race like this... Country House will move forward and be better then War of Will. The price will be better and i feel like my opinion is right. So why cover War of Will? Thats my thought process, but im open to talking about the race.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Not Baffert, Mott, Pletcher or Brown trained.

Its getting old. Worst then Alabama lately. I still think the pms about me in the selections is your best work. You'll never get back to that level in my book.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Its getting old. Worst then Alabama lately. I still think the pms about me in the selections is your best work. You'll never get back to that level in my book.

What you talking about. I’m just stating they are the only trainers you ever pick. Nothing malicious.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I like Country House. Im going to back up with Pletchers horse. Why back up with a heavy favorite? Im playing the race like this... Country House will move forward and be better then War of Will. The price will be better and i feel like my opinion is right. So why cover War of Will? Thats my thought process, but im open to talking about the race.

You're trying to hit a Pick-5, I assume. Why would you let the likeliest winner beat you, have some smart opinion in another leg, and blow the sequence because you're stubborn?

I like Country House more going forward as well.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You're trying to hit a Pick-5, I assume. Why would you let the likeliest winner beat you, have some smart opinion in another leg, and blow the sequence because you're stubborn?

I like Country House more going forward as well.

Country house can improve but doesn’t this seem like a perfect setup pace wise for war of wills? I’m not a chalk guy but no way I would leave him off ticket in this race.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You're trying to hit a Pick-5, I assume. Why would you let the likeliest winner beat you, have some smart opinion in another leg, and blow the sequence because you're stubborn?

I like Country House more going forward as well.

I have been known to blow scores leaving off big chalks.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I have been known to blow scores leaving off big chalks.

Don't be proud of that. You're smarter than that.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Don't be proud of that. You're smarter than that.

Right or wrong i take stands. Anything under 8-5 is single or toss.

[moses]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

So War of Will appears to face the softest pace he's had to deal with yet, but you think he's a total pitch?

You have a good opinion, but just tossing chalk because it's chalk likely doesn't help you. Why are you tossing this horse?

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Country house can improve but doesn’t this seem like a perfect setup pace wise for war of wills? I’m not a chalk guy but no way I would leave him off ticket in this race.

I haven’t looked at the field very thoroughly yet but shouldn’t Spinoff be forwardly placed and possibly press the pace?

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Right or wrong i take stands. Anything under 8-5 is single or toss.

He is an obvious go against at a short price who ran a lower Beyer last time. Why take a hoss who could be heading in the wrong direction? I’m looking for hosses whose Beyer numbers are getting higher, not lower.

[ateamstupid]

Whether or not War of Will wins Saturday, the fact that his Beyer fell two points last time while facing the toughest pace scenario of his career is not a good reason to be against him.

[Alabama Stakes]

Often it is the little things that preclude the bigger issues.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Often it is the little things that preclude the bigger issues.

Assuming that two points was a significant drop, which it isn't, you're still ignoring the context of the effort.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Country House and Spinoff for me.

I’m with you on Spinoff.

I’ll be in Vegas this weekend until April 1st. Could very well play a gigantic (for me) cold P3.

Bricks / Serengeti / Spinoff

Stone COLD should bring back, what, $30-40 for $1?