4/8 ATR at SA with Hammer: Baffert, Orseno, Weaver, Sawyer, Johnny D

[Kasept]

Monday ATR at Santa Anita with Hammer..

9:40 CA steward Kim Sawyer ('No Whip Friday')
9:50 George Weaver
10:20 Johnny D
11:00 Joe Orseno
11:20 Bob Baffert

Archive, etc., http://stevebyk.com & SXM 6-9a Tuesday.

[moses]

Baffert praised Maximum Security quite a bit, I believe calling him the one to beat (forgive me if I’m misquoting him). Maybe I need to re-evaluate my evaluation of the horse.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by moses

Baffert praised Maximum Security quite a bit, I believe calling him the one to beat (forgive me if I’m misquoting him). Maybe I need to re-evaluate my evaluation of the horse.

I know I'm in minority here but I think this one has a shot and will be on my ticket. Most of the experts are tossing him. He controlled the pace in Florida Derby and closed very strong. Nice finishing time and back to back 100+ beyer figures. Only horse in field that has done that. Like most horses in the race distance may be an issue but hell there are no stars in this group. Would be an amazing story coming from 16K mcl race (of note from that race was Math Wizard who ran a nice 4th in Wood) to win this.

[moses]

I’m keen on a handful of horses but that could drastically change depending on what happens in the Arkansas Derby.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

I know I'm in minority here but I think this one has a shot and will be on my ticket. Most of the experts are tossing him. He controlled the pace in Florida Derby and closed very strong. Nice finishing time and back to back 100+ beyer figures. Only horse in field that has done that. Like most horses in the race distance may be an issue but hell there are no stars in this group. Would be an amazing story coming from 16K mcl race (of note from that race was Math Wizard who ran a nice 4th in Wood) to win this.

He will be on my tickets too and I will be surprised if he is not the race favorite, but there will also be a lot of support for Roadster as reflected in the Futures. That said, I don't see a lot of challengers for the role of pacesetter except for Omaha Beach and that one seems faster. At least faster early, but who knows, hard to evaluate on just a handful of races.
Maybe Max is not as one dimensional as his last two races seem to indicate.

[moses]

Originally Posted by cal828

He will be on my tickets too and I will be surprised if he is not the race favorite, but there will also be a lot of support for Roadster as reflected in the Futures. That said, I don't see a lot of challengers for the role of pacesetter except for Omaha Beach and that one seems faster. At least faster early, but who knows, hard to evaluate on just a handful of races.
Maybe Max is not as one dimensional as his last two races seem to indicate.

If Improbable wins the Arkansas Derby, he’ll be the favorite. If you look at the final odds for Pool 4, Improbable was the 5th choice at 8-1, below Roadster, Game Winner, Maximum Security, and Tacitus. He was 6-1 in Pool 3 and took the most money of any individual horse. 10-1 in Pool 2 and 3rd most money taken.

He doesn’t even have enough points to make the Derby yet. So if he wins on Saturday, a lot of money will gravitate toward him on May 4.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by moses

If Improbable wins the Arkansas Derby, he’ll be the favorite. If you look at the final odds for Pool 4, Improbable was the 5th choice at 8-1, below Roadster, Game Winner, Maximum Security, and Tacitus. He was 6-1 in Pool 3 and took the most money of any individual horse. 10-1 in Pool 2 and 3rd most money taken.

He doesn’t even have enough points to make the Derby yet. So if he wins on Saturday, a lot of money will gravitate toward him on May 4.

Fine by me, if it turns out that way, but too many ifs there. I am thinking Omaha Beach for the Arkansas Derby. Pacesetters often relish a wet track and I think he won at Santa Anita on one. Should make for wagering chaos should all 3 Bafferts make it into the KD and I imagine they will.

[moses]

Originally Posted by cal828

Fine by me, if it turns out that way, but too many ifs there. I am thinking Omaha Beach for the Arkansas Derby. Pacesetters often relish a wet track and I think he won at Santa Anita on one. Should make for wagering chaos should all 3 Bafferts make it into the KD and I imagine they will.

Also fine with me. I have no clue why anyone would bet a horse that isn’t even in the derby yet at 8-1 in Pool 4.

$20 wins you $180. If you really like him, why not just bet him to win the Arkansas Derby? If he’s 2-1 in Arkansas and wins, that’s $60. And if he’s 3-1 in Kentucky and you roll those winnings into a bet, you’ll get back $240. Better use of $20, in my opinion. Of course he could lose the Arkansas Derby and win the Kentucky Derby but that seems...improbable.

Anyway...for the Arkansas Derby I was originally backing Omaha Beach but I think I may be moving elsewhere. I’ll take a final look on Thursday or Friday and see if that weather forecast sticks.