Found your Derby horse yet?

[JolyB]

Now that all of the preps have been run and we have a pretty good idea of who will be in the field, I have to ask whether you have found "your" Derby horse yet. Of course, there could be defections, final jockey selections are being made, works over the track have to be viewed and you keep your fingers crossed during the post position draw, hoping that a contender doesn't get buried in post #1. But the drama is building.

I was very impressed with Omaha Beach's tactical speed in Arkansas. Mike Smith seemed to be able to get him running, then reduce the speed to idle, then start running again, and that let him have a bit more closing punch than Improbable. I don't think that 10 furlongs will be a problem for him. The fact that Smith has chosen him over Roadster is a major plus. Unfortunately, lots of others are jumping onto his bandwagon, so I don't think you will be able to get a decent price on him in a Derby that still seems to me as if it will be wide open, with a bunch of horses who could win and no true standout.

I'd love to read about Derby runners whom you really like or whom you believe are throwouts. Maybe we can get a good discussion going.

[RUFFIAN]

RUFFIAN'S RADICAL ~ REBELLIOUS ~ RECALCITRANT & RIDICULOUS
PURRRCULAR PURRRFOUND PURRRSNICKETY PIX

AS ALWAYS: NAMES / GRAYS / SIRES

PLUS QUE PARFAIT
{ Means: More Than PurrrFect }
Additionally: My Pomeranian QrFluffl = NickName = 'Q'
And She Is 'More Than Perfect'

GRAY MAGICIAN
{*Gray Obsessed + Magickal Natured}

HAIKAL
{Means TALE: Dam By Distorted Humor My #1 Fave Sire}

CUTTING HUMOR
{Because I Relate To The Name}

ROADSTER {Gray}

BY MY STANDARDS
{How I Live Life}

TACITUS {Gray}

AND THAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT'S ALL FOLKS!

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Best value : CODE OF HONOR
Most likely : ROADSTER
Next best : GAME WINNER

Exotics use : SPINOFF & PLUS QUE PARFAIT

[ElPrado]

Omaha Beach....I can still terrify college professors with my knowlege of WWII. Plus, he definitely is getting good at the right time.
The exacta?
Tacitus should help there.
Baffert's bunch doesn't inspire me much this year, but Roadster can finish the tri.

[DonGuido]

Can't get too excited this year. Maybe because we've been spoiled lately. Omaha Beach should be the odds on fav and with Mike Smith hard to overlook.
I'll handicap the card like I usually do for the Derby to fill out the 1-2-3 and we'll see. Have to be better than I've done so far this year. Basically about as good as leftover dog breakfast.

[JolyB]

Don't yet know whom my head will be telling me to bet, but I'm sure that my heart will be pushing me to root for a Bill Mott horse to win. It would be such a pleasure to see a person of his overall quality in the winner's circle.

Of the two, I don't think that Country House will be the one to take him there. While CH is a nice horse with a good closing run and ought to be able to compete at the distance, he could get left far behind early and will be passing a number of very tired horses in the stretch, but might have too much to do to catch the winner. An in the super finish is the absolute best that I could predict for him.

Tacitus on the other hand, has a number of positive qualities that give him a realistic chance. In the Wood he was bounced around early, overcame a lot of difficulty and still was game in his duel to the wire with Tax. The price on Tacitus should be realistic. The Baffert horses and Omaha Beach will all take a lot of money, and Tacitus may end up as 4th or 5th choice, even though I think that he belongs in the top three.

[Roamin42]

I have been a Country House fan early on. I will not differ from his ability. Now that Flavien Prat is the pilot I think he will be a lot closer than usual. If the pace is contested at fast fractions I can see CH benefitting from it and with Prat on him that makes him dangerous. Hopefully cashing $$$$$.. This is where my money is going. Good luck to all.

[Alabama Stakes]

I like the 2 Pletcher hosses...with the Bafferts underneath.

[cal828]

I think, if I had to bet it tomorrow, I'd go with the top two from the Arkansas Derby(Omaha Beach and Improbable), the top two from the Louisiana Derby(By My Standards and Spinoff) and the Wood winner Tacitus in no particular order, but we still have several days to think about it so I'll change my mind at least a hundred times before the race. As for the order, I'll likely play some tri and superfecta boxes so maybe the order won't matter.

[JolyB]

As we get closer to the draw, I just hope that all of the commentators can begin to get the pronunciations of horses' names correct. In particular, there seem to be two completely different ways that they try to pronounce Tacitus - my old Latin teacher would have been adamant about the correct way that the historian's name was pronounced; even worse are the number of ways that Plus Que Parfait gets mangled. Since his name is French and has a clear French meaning (which in my opinion doesn't really fit the horse, but that's another matter), then shouldn't they use correct French pronunciation? The following link might help.

.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNHsUVcGofg

[Alabama Stakes]

I must have watched the workout where WInWinWin ends up working outside of the 2 Mott hosses 20 times. It seemed very impressive for WinWinWin. He was well behind the Mott pair and basically blew by both of them while well outside the pair. On the gallup out he remained well wide. He saw the Mott pair who seemed to still be engaged . It was almost like he said, hey, I thought I already beat you two. I didn’t know we were still racing. He accelerates and goes by them again. I’m sure if he sees those two before the race, he’ll give them a stare down. I didn’t really like or hate this hoss, but now I think he has to be considered.