Santa Anita Force Out

[cal828]

Anybody playing? For real or imaginary.

Here are my picks:

R4 2,4,5
R5 1,3
R6 3,5
R7 2,4,7
R8 3,5
R9 8,9

$28.80

[JolyB]

Good luck with your ticket Cal. This sequence looks eminently more hittable than some of the mandatory payout cards at Gulfstream, when they greatly increase the purses of the races in the Rainbow Pick 6 sequence to attract extremely full fields, some of which end up being absolute mysteries.

I have had a question about all of these mandatory payout days for which I'm sure there is no answer. The handicapper revels in this situation because for once there is a positive expectation of return, namely that more money will be paid out to the winning players that the total amount bet into the pool that day. But if you have a relatively small carryover and a huge amount of new money bet that day, this positive expectation will disappear. In a sense, with each new dollar wagered the attractiveness of the bet diminishes.

Today the carryover at SA is around $1,260,000 and the track website anticipates that the total pool should be close to $5,000,000. That works out to new money that is about 3 times the carryover pool. The takeout on the new money is still a bit less than the amount of the carryover, so there is a positive expectation. But if the total pool gets to be much greater than $5 million, does the reason for playing begin to disappear?

No easy answer to these musings. It's just that so many of the talking heads seem to think that having a huge pool is a good thing, while I would contend that it is just the opposite.

[cal828]

You are probably right. I imagine that big jackpots like this attract way better players than me and also large betting groups that pool their money and cover just about every horse. I doubt if I will even play. If I had money to burn I might. Just thought I'd see how close I could get just for the fun of it.

[JolyB]

I would dispute your comment about better players, but you are correct about large betting groups who pool their money. That is almost mandatory in cases where the fields are very large and incomprehensible. Even at $.20 per wager, a pick 6 ticket can get very expensive very quickly if you need to go 6 or 7 deep in several legs to feel any sort of confidence. That can rapidly get beyond even an aggressive player's bankroll. The only issue with the betting pool is handling the allocation of income tax implications if you happen to hit it big. The new rules have made this less of a problem but it is still there. Perhaps a nice problem to have.

Even without a wager, it is an intriguing handicapping challenge to play 6 and not lose any of them.