8/26: Saratoga Steeplechase Race 1 NW2L ALW

[Flatterer]

The penultimate steeplechase race at Saratoga has 7 runners going 5 turns over 9 fences.

NSA ratings have everyone pretty close in a 113-116 point range so getting a 4 pound penalty for winning a maiden race in 2020 is significant.

Using the NSA ratings as a guide to determine winners with the best rating, therefore the most competitive races, both Fast Car from July 29, 2020 and Galway Kid from June 13, 2020 each have a 120 rating. So let’s take a closer look at the runners from these races, #5 Tomgarrow, #6 Brianbakescookies and #4 Gaye Breeze.

#5 Tomgarrow had a good run at Middleburg but tired late going uphill June 13th. Trainer Leslie Young and jockey Tom Garner have teamed up for 2 wins at the Spa and can get a 3rd win here with a 2 pound break from his last race.

#6 Brianbakescookies also ran well at Middleburg only losing by a ½ length to Galway Kid in a fast time. However, he did weaken late in both 2020 runs, going longer is a detriment and he doesn’t like to win. He does have good flat track speed but this asset was not utilized in his last Spa run.

#4 Gaye Breeze (3rd) always runs one paced and appears to be overmatched at level weights.

#2 Prayer Hope was gutless late on August 12th but still ran respectable. Trainer Fisher and jockey Mitchell are looking for 3 wins at the Spa and should improve off his last run.

Sheppard entry #1 A Silent Prayer and #1A French Light are recent Colonial Downs graduates and will be severely overbet. #1 A Silent Prayer is the better part of the entry. Either can run underneath in exotics.

Race shape will have an honest pace but it is difficult to determine who will be on the lead since several runners have displayed speed but their front end form is erratic. Sheppard’s runners will stay off the pace and try to make a run after the final fence.

Selections:

A) 5

B) 2

C) 1 (2nd) -1A (Won $3.50)

Good luck at the races!

[Flatterer]

From Steve's show...NSA Director Bill Gallo said that #3 Critical Data lost a shoe in the infield before the running of the July 29th race so that is why he tired. He has good flat track speed and might clunk up underneath in tri and super.