10/22: Laurel (7th-12th); Bel/Aqu (6th-10th); Keeneland (6th-10th)

[Kasept]

LAUREL PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th (2:53p ET): MD Million Distaff, F&M-3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Fille d'Espirit 8-5 WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #2 Malibu Beauty 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Wicked Hot 5-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Bourbon Wildcat 20-1 4th


8th: MD Million Lassie, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Chickieness 2-1 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #3 Skylar's Sister 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Bosserati 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Shell Belle 15-1 6th


9th: MD Million Turf, 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Midnight Hauler 7-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Mr. d'Angelo 20-1 12th
Next Best: #8 Cannon's Roar 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Street Copper 6-1 2nd


10th: MD Million Sprint, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #11 Fortheloveofbourbon 8-5 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #14 Alwaysinahurry 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Karan's Notion 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Heir Port 12-1 -


11th: MD Million Classic, 3+, 9f (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 Ain't Da Beer Cold 6-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Ournationonparade 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #6 The Poser 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Vance Scholars 9-2 2nd


P5 Grid:

7: 1-2 (A), 6 (B), - (C)
8: 6 (A), - (B), 3-4 (C)
9: 7 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C)
10: 11-14 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 5-6-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x3x2x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x1x1x2x4 = 16 x .50 = $8
Backup: 2x2x1x2x4 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

8: 6 (A), 3 (B), 4 (C)
9: 3-7 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
10: 11-14 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 5-6-8-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
All A's: 1x2x2x4 = 16 x .50 = $8
Backup: 1x2x2x4 = 16 x .50 = $8


11th: MD Million Turf Distaff S/HCP, F&M-3+, 8.f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #4 Mosler's Image 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Downtown Katie 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Brushing 6-1 -
Super Add: #6 Pounding Music 8-1 WON ($19.40)



BEL/AQU


POST-SCRATCHES


6th (3:16p ET): MSW, 2yo, 7f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Rudder's Men 2-1 WON ($3.10)
Best Value: #3 Chess Spectacular 15-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Classic Legacy 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Classic Catch 6-1 3rd


7th: Hill Prince (G2), 3yo, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Unanimous Consent 6-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Grand Sonata 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 St. Anthony 15-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Mackinnon 9-2 2nd


8th: NY-MCLM/$20k, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Flashy Alex 12-1 WON ($40.20)
Next Best: #1 Destin Hoofman 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Fast Study 8-1 9th
Super Add: #6 Garth Road 8-1 7th


9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Chulainn 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Danzigwiththestars 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Internal Capital 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 My Boy Paddy 30-1 8th


10th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f-Outer

Most Likely: #3 Deep Cover 4-1 8th
Next Best: #1e Rice entry 7-2 WON ($7.30)/5th
Exotics Use: #9 Not Phar Now 5-2 6th
Super Add: #4 Neuro 10-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

6: 6 (A), 3 (B), - (C)
7: 2-5-8 (A), 1-7-10 (B), - (C)
8: 1-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-3 (A), - (B), 9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x2x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 1x3x2x3x1 = 18 x .50 = $9


P4 Grid:

7: 2-5-8 (A), 1-7-10 (B), - (C)
8: 1-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-3 (A), 9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x3x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18



KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Fearless Viv 8-1 12th
Next Best: #5 Catskill Humor 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Twirled 5-2 WON ($5.68)
Super Add: #8 Amber Cascade 12-1 9th


6th (3:40p ET): Perryville, 3yo, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Gunite 6-5 WON ($3.24)
Best Value: #6 B Dawk 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Artorious 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Of a Revolution 5-1 6th


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #12 Always Late 5-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Empress Tigress 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Sara Mia 8-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Touch of Class 15-1 WON ($29.46)


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Film Star 8-1 8th
Next Best: #1 War Campaign 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Tiz Rye Time 6-1 WON ($20.86)
Super Add: #3 Gate Runner 15-1 4th


9th: Raven Run (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Wicked Halo 4-1 WON ($7.04)
Best Value: #6 Colorful Mischief 12-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Fingal's Cave 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Last Leaf 12-1 5th


10th: MSW, 3+, 9f-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Push Button 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Good Soldier 5-1 5th
Best Value: #11 Shogun Warrior 12-1 WON ($17.92)
Exotics Use: #9 Inbound 6-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #2 Monjid 20-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

6: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 2-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-6 (A), 3-4 (B), - (C)
9: 2-5-4-6-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 6-7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x2x4x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x2x6x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick 5 Conso (4,8/9/4/8/11) $48.32 x 2 = $96.65


P4 Grid:

7: 2-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-6 (A), 3-4 (B), - (C)
9: 6-8 (A), 4-5 (B), 2-10 (C)
10: 6-7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

LRL SCR/CHG'S

BEL/AQU SCR/CHG'S

KEE SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

That was fun. Sure hope Maryhope was aboard.

[Kasept]

BEL/AQU $45k P6 C/O SUNDAY

[maryhope]

Of course I was aboard today, we didn't hit anything, I was counting the money when the longshot at Belmont come in, then those 3 horses we had in the next leg didn't even come close, It is frustrating to keep losing

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by maryhope

Of course I was aboard today, we didn't hit anything, I was counting the money when the longshot at Belmont come in, then those 3 horses we had in the next leg didn't even come close, It is frustrating to keep losing

You didn’t bet Flashy Alex to win at 19-1? You didn’t play any Doubles or P3’s? I don't know what to tell you. There’s many ways to approach a wagering menu. I specifically addressed betting price plays alone and shortening up from biggest multis for you yesterday.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...19&postcount=4

[AZDave]

Great job at Keeneland Mr Byk. Monster pick 3s using your 4 picks each race. Cost is $32 for 50 cents.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You didn’t bet Flashy Alex to win at 19-1? You didn’t play any Doubles or P3’s? I don't know what to tell you. There’s many ways to approach a wagering menu. I specifically addressed betting price plays alone and shortening up from biggest multis for you yesterday.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...19&postcount=4

Me thinks 2 things

1. Mary only identifies as a female
2. Mary is a troll

And Fantastic Job today!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by AZDave

Great job at Keeneland Mr Byk. Monster pick 3s using your 4 picks each race. Cost is $32 for 50 cents.

THX Dave. Was fun there yesterday. Glad you and others did well. That was a bad miscue being so timid in the Raven Run though where top 2, 3 or 4 were plenty good enough. Being more narrow there allows for use of all 4 in the 7th which returns $9k+ ($5,776 P5 and $3,400 P4). Need to reach one of those each KEE meet given how quirky the results are.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jms62

Me thinks 2 things

1. Mary only identifies as a female
2. Mary is a troll

And Fantastic Job today!

Thanks Jim. Had a good day and heard from a few people that benefited as well. I don't think Maryhope is trolling. Has been around a while and has expressed appreciation for good results. Tried to offer some additional suggestions yesterday and there were some really good opportunities, so, I don't know what else I can do as a public handicapper.