ROI Results 3/18 @ Oaklawn

Real Quiet · #1 03-20-2023, 01:05 PM

Seven tickets were cashed at Oaklawn on Saturday and three point slots were filled. Cruzan
cashed a ticket for $77 but failed to hit the board. In a puzzler Cruzan picked a 12-1 morning
line horse in the finale but he went off as the favorite at 2-1. Probably just a bad ML looking at
the last 3 races and a bad beat in our pick and pray format. Zippy gets third by hitting three of
his four exacta's. He had a nice one in the 4th race and along with his other two wins gave him
a profit of $4.40. Digger takes second with his wager on Last Samurai in the feature. It was
more than enough to safely take the place position with a $20 profit. An easy and early win
at Oaklawn goes to Real Quiet who hit an exacta in race 2 worth $456 and he added one more
in race 9 worth $97. A profit of $462 easily took the day. Following are the unofficial results
pending any objections. See you all next week as the triple crown prep races return.

WIN... Real Quiet... +$462.10... R 2 $11 ex key 8 w 1-2-4 $41.50 X 11... $456.50
R 9 $8 ex key 10 w 4-5-6-9 $12.20 X 8... $97.60

PLACE... Digger... +$20.00... R9: 10 ( Show $100 ) $2.40 X 50... $120.00

SHOW... Zippy... +$4.40 ... R3 1-2-5-7 $2exbx ... $7.60
R4 3-4-6-9 $2exbx... $78.60
R5 2-4-5-7 $2exbx ... $18.20

Cruzan -$22.50 R10. 8 $25 Win $6.20 X 12.5... $77.50

Joly B -$100.00

Cal828 -$100.00

Indian Hemp -$100.00

Ruffian -$100.00

Alli · #2 03-20-2023, 02:07 PM

I'm listening to the audiobook, Horse, by Geraldine Brooks, the history of thoroughbred, Lexington (Darley). Fascinating. Check it out.

JolyB · #3 03-20-2023, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Real Quiet

In a puzzler Cruzan picked a 12-1 morning
line horse in the finale but he went off as the favorite at 2-1. Probably just a bad ML looking at
the last 3 races and a bad beat in our pick and pray format.

RQ, congrats on your ROI win. Your observation about a bad ML is all too true - we see that all too frequently, most often in lower quality races or maiden races. Some linemakers are more conscientious than others; many do a good job identifying their top one or two picks and then sort of slap the rest of the field together. In more than one race at the Fair Grounds I've noticed that there might be 3 or 4 horses in an 8 horse race all of which are listed at 6-1 odds. After the race I've looked at the chart and noted large discrepancies.

When playing a race, I like to watch the tote and make my wager late in the cycle when the betting pattern has been established. With our contest format that isn't possible, so the only solution is to try to make my own ML based on what I can discern from the pp's. Unfortunately, it can be a very time consuming process.