7/26: Saratoga Steeplechase Race 1 NW2L ALW

[Flatterer]

A never won 2 life over jumps allowance around 4 turns and over 8 jumps with a 5 furlong flat run after the last jump on the backstretch is the steeplechase race of the week at Saratoga.

#5 Gold and #7 Top Brass are scratched reducing the field size to 6 runners, 5 betting interests.

Half the runners that will go for the lead and try to wire this field on the front end including #3 Hoffman, #4 Mr. Connecticut, and #6 Beat Le Bon, ensuring a quick early pace. The best of the front runners are #3 Hoffman, with the highest steeplechase rating of 128, and #6 Beat Le Bon who does not have an official rating because he just broke his maiden but I would assign the 2nd highest at 124.

#3 Hoffman in his last race at Great Meadow came to a fork in the course, jockey Dan England had a brain fart and ran to the inside of a beacon instead of the outside so he was off course by about 8 feet while 60 lengths in front. England was fined $250 for staying in the race after going off course. However, he was only 1.4 seconds behind Smithwick winner Belfast Banter’s time the same day, same course and distance.

#6 Beat Le Bon didn’t beat much in his maiden victory but ran the fastest time of the day by 4 seconds, has 2nd leading trainer Jack Fisher and 2nd leading jockey Watters.

The best flat track steeplechase runners are #1A L’Imperator, #3 Hoffman and #6 Beat Le Bon. The runners with the best Beyer numbers are #1A L’Imperator, #1 Modus Operandi, #6 Beat Le Bon. The best closers are #1A L’Imperator and #1 Modus Operandi.

If the front runners #3 Hoffman or #6 Beat Le Bon do not go wire to wire, then the entry of #1 Modus Operandi or #1A L’Imperator will close for the victory.

#4 Mr. Connecticut (5th)may close to finsh 3rd or 4th if the front runners commit harakiri and run off the board.

The only thing I am confident with is that the entry #1A L’Imperator or #1 Modus Operandi will hit the board.

The Selection:

A) #3 Hoffman (3rd) - #1A L’Imperator (1st $5.20) - #1 Modus Operandi (4th) - #6 Beat Le Bron (2nd) EX $6.30, TRI $6.30, SUPER $2.80

Good luck at the races!