CONTEST ENTRIES: SA Carryover

I gotta say... there's a few of us on this forum that know what we're doing!!

We'd be a force in a syndicate. 408K split ten ways would be fine with me!

The best I did was 4 out of 6 thanks to that damn Moogie...

[blackthroatedwind]

Honestly, I think everybody did a remarkably good job, and it's extraordinarily impressive how many people had fives ( and I'm assuming multiple times ). Congratulations on a super tough job very well done.

One of the reasons I thought of this was that I was explaining to Byk just how hard it is to put together winning tickets ( and don't fool yourself, no matter how smart you think you are, or are, it takes at least a little luck ). $2500 does not go very far at all especially in a card like this one with many big fields. Often times people look at the results and say " I could have had that ", and it's very possible there are people that had every winner somewhere on their tickets, but getting them all on ONE ticket is another story.

No doubt ten people are better off putting $250 each together than playing 10 seperate $250 plays. Like someone just said, 10% of $400K aint bad.

Congrats again. I can't speak for anyone else but I'm impressed.

[docicu3]

Damn had 5 of 6 and the 2nd and 3rd place horses in the race I missed the 6th......Any thoughts from anyone about errors you think I made with ticket structure or missing somethig obvious on the race I blew.....please provide constructive feedback!!!

2nd time I had P6 with 5 of 6 at SA in two weeks.... The ticket cost $2304 so end up breaking even while the years off my life praying for the 7 or the 4 in the 6Th to catch the 8 are gone forever!!.....a sprint to route angle I missed......and of course it happens in the middle race so it screws up the rollling pick 3's......Yikes!!!!!
I am not anywhere as smart as alot of you guys......

Byk you should have my mailing address and my check for the syndicate by this time......

DrDave

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Honestly, I think everybody did a remarkably good job, and it's extraordinarily impressive how many people had fives ( and I'm assuming multiple times ). Congratulations on a super tough job very well done.

One of the reasons I thought of this was that I was explaining to Byk just how hard it is to put together winning tickets ( and don't fool yourself, no matter how smart you think you are, or are, it takes at least a little luck ). $2500 does not go very far at all especially in a card like this one with many big fields. Often times people look at the results and say " I could have had that ", and it's very possible there are people that had every winner somewhere on their tickets, but getting them all on ONE ticket is another story.

No doubt ten people are better off putting $250 each together than playing 10 seperate $250 plays. Like someone just said, 10% of $400K aint bad.

Congrats again. I can't speak for anyone else but I'm impressed.

Seriously, if we had 20 people put in $250, $5,000 wagered, I know we'd have taken it today. Even 5% of $400K is not a bad return on the $250.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Seriously, if we had 20 people put in $250, $5,000 wagered, I know we'd have taken it today. Even 5% of $400K is not a bad return on the $250.

Not bad at all.

If there comes along another fat carryover with some stronger races on the card, we should give some serious thought to trying to pin one on it. But, there's a fairly cumbersome logistical problem of gathering and distributing money that one person would have to take on. Perhaps that person would get a little more of the pot for their troubles? Just a thought.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Damn had 5 of 6 and the 2nd and 3rd place horses in the race I missed the 6th......Any thoughts from anyone about errors you think I made with ticket structure or missing somethig obvious on the race I blew.....please provide constructive feedback!!!

2nd time I had P6 with 5 of 6 at SA in two weeks.... The ticket cost $2304 so end up breaking even while the years off my life praying for the 7 or the 4 in the 6Th to catch the 8 are gone forever!!.....a sprint to route angle I missed......and of course it happens in the middle race so it screws up the rollling pick 3's......Yikes!!!!!
I am not anywhere as smart as alot of you guys......

Byk you should have my mailing address and my check for the syndicate by this time......

DrDave

Just because you lost doesn't mean you did anything wrong. Seems to me you did a hell of a lot more right than wrong.

The thing paid $400K or 160 times $2500. Five of six is DAMN good.

[blackthroatedwind]

One piece of advice, or thought, and I mean this as no criticism, but a mistake people make is handicapping too much sometimes in a Pick-6. Hitting a Pick-6 can, and does, come down to knowing what races opinions are important and what races it is important to just survive.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

One piece of advice, or thought, and I mean this as no criticism, but a mistake people make is handicapping too much sometimes in a Pick-6. Hitting a Pick-6 can, and does, come down to knowing what races opinions are important and what races it is important to just survive.

Sound advice. There are races that defy handicapping. I think you're right. You have to recognize what each race offers. Is it a race that you can get a read on and hence form a somewhat confident opinion, or is it a race that you more or less have to buy your way past.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Sound advice. There are races that defy handicapping. I think you're right. You have to recognize what each race offers. Is it a race that you can get a read on and hence form a somewhat confident opinion, or is it a race that you more or less have to buy your way past.

This is true.I had no real clue who was gunna win the 3rd,4th,or 7th,but had a pretty good feel for the 5th,6th,and 8th.

[docicu3]

Again Scuds I should have talked to you about the 6TH as I had Place and Show horses but screwed up missing the route to sprint angle. Did you like the 8??

Next carry we exchange thoughts before the P6.....this 5 of 6 the last two big SA carry's is nice but it's alot like spending all day at the track and going home even......it's better than tanking but not by alot...

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Again Scuds I should have talked to you about the 6TH as I had Place and Show horses but screwed up missing the route to sprint angle. Did you like the 8??

Next carry we exchange thoughts before the P6.....this 5 of 6 the last two big SA carry's is nice but it's alot like spending all day at the track and going home even......it's better than tanking but not by alot...

O.K.,I think I have put this together now.You are actually talking about the 5th race.Well,I can't get that f'n Palma Horse(Paul's Hope.) The only way I could get it was to go wide in there. I went wide in the 3rd,4th,and 7th.So,if you(or myself)want to get that horse,then we would have to go lean in a race we didn't go lean in today,and go wide in the 5th.I think that the 5th should of been won by Nakatanl's horse,but he is out of the groove at the moment,and Espinoza was in the groove today.Therefore,Corey got beat.I think the horse will come right back and win(with a better ride.....much like T. Montana won by getting a better ride today.)I think you want to know angles to get Paul's Hope.I only see 2.

1)Espinoza gave the winner of the 1st a good inspired ride....You could lean on that.

2)I think Paul's Hope was dropping in class (a bit.)When they finish a football field behind,I am not that big on the route to sprint angle.

[docicu3]

Your right it was the 5TH.....sorry I am so pissed I can't even count!!!

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Your right it was the 5TH.....sorry I am so pissed I can't even count!!!

Actually,a 3rd angle ........I think that the sire of Paul's Hope is a decent win early-speed type.I don't know that much about him,but I like the speed I have seen from his horses.

[JudyGold]

Top handicapper at SA James Quinn put this ticket together

a b
3. 12 7-5-9

4. 6-12 2-4

5.4-12-7-11

6.7-1 4-8

7.7-8-1 9

8.11-12 13-14

a ticket by itself $192 2 winners
full ticket a+b 8192 for 3 winners

Paul's Hope...

I picked him up going deep in that leg. What stuck out the most to me were a few things (even though I thought others would actually win the race):

Obviously, Espinoza taking the mount makes me think the horse is going to be live. He was dropping from 75K MCL down to 32K MCL (nice drop, actually biggest drop in the field). Also, this horse seemed to be fit because of his progression of works and, more importantly, his 3f work just 3 days before the race. Normally I don't pay much attention to 3f works unless they are sub :36. This one happened to be :35 which tells me, if nothing else, this horse is probably more fit than he's ever been. Again, combine that with Espinoza taking the mount and the class drop seems legit.

Regarding being beaten by a football field. I thought the trainer knew the horse wasn't "in" that last race. Anytime I see a horse coming back from a layoff their last race (which, this one was) and see the lengths back increase so drastically from stretch to the wire, I give the benefit of the doubt to that race being a "work." It was a route, you make the horse run more than he naturally wants to go for some good competitive exercise. Give him a week or two off and let him swell up like a rockstar, bring him back for a sharp 3f work to get his mind on racing....and Boom!! Tough Actin Tinactin.

Anybody know if he was claimed??

[Sightseek]

Thank you to the people who posted what they saw in Paul's Hope.

Paul's Hope was not claimed, but Wage a Kiss and Ringmaster were.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

The biggest obstacle in playing Paul's Hope was simply being able to play a horse trained by Hector Palma.Best I can tell,Palma won 1 maiden claiming race in 47 attempts in 2006-2007(2%.)People can b.s. all they want,but this would of had to be a spread race for you(and you would have to include him in a spread.)Talking endlessly (about this rat) is the punishment deemed upon us by one Corey Nakatani.His horse broke great ,but he took back,and Espinoza said thank you,thank you,and set a comfortable 22'1,and a 45'3(as Gryder's horse collapses while keeping Nakatani down inside.) Corey is just not riding with confidence,and Espinoza is.I have no doubt that if you swap riders,Peace Accord presses that horse,and draws off.Nakatani is giving a workman-like 90% effort out there,and when somebody is riding well,you will have trouble running them down(if you wait while they coast on 22'1 ,45'3.)If somebody else gets this mount,you will see this.The horse will either press,or make a big middle move.The new rider will not wait until the stretch to move(while somebody else has fun coasting up front.)

[Gander]

Thank you to the people who posted what they saw in Paul's Hope.

With all due respect its easy to analyze a race after its over. There are very few horses that win that you cant write an essay of why you could have used him or her after the fact. Pretty much useless info now unless you have a working time machine.