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Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I'm thinking SNS's last race took too much out of him. He was wide, but only a path wider than the eventual winner around the first turn.
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I don't think the last race is what it was. I said this prior to his last race:
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Originally Posted by King Glorious
I like Strong Contender with Chatain and Istan in the exacta and tri boxes. Forgot my boy Indy Wind.
Looking at Sweetnorthernsaint, I don't consider the two comeback races and the races before the Gotham. He was obviously the class of those races and could run how he wanted and still win. For a decent look at how he might fit with these, I looked at his four races against graded competition:
Gotham-Was 2 back of a half in 47 3/5 and was 1.5 back of 6f in 1:12 1/5. He was fairly close to the pace but never had the lead. Steadily made ground late but didn't win.
Illinois Derby-Was 1 back of a half in 48 and 1/2 back of 6f in 1:13 before exploding to win the race. Had a lot in the tank (why not after such slow fractions?)
Kentucky Derby-Was 3.5 back after a half in 46 and about the same back of 6f in 1:10 4/5. He ended up tiring badly and losing a lot of ground late.
Preakness-Was 1 back of a half in 46 3/5 and 1/2 back of 6f in 1:10 1/5. He ended up finishing second that day but he was five lengths further back at the finish than he was after 6f meaning he again lost a lot of ground.
My feeling is that when he's allowed to run on very easy paces, he does well. Let him run a 48 or so for the half and still be within a couple of lengths and he's dangerous. But if they go faster, he's in trouble. He's either got to run faster to keep his position, which takes away from his late punch, or he's got to drop back further and try to run down a lot of horses. I don't see him with a chance here today. The half is likely to be in the 45 3/5 to 46 range and there are a few horses that will be contesting it.
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He simply cannot stay close to a decent pace and finish with a kick. In the last race, he was up close to a hot pace and finished ok but not with a kick. In that race, he just didn't lose a lot of ground but he wasn't coming at the end. Today, he just had nothing when the running started.
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01-27-2007, 05:32 PM
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