The Donn This Saturday

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Invasor will not lose to this bunch. You're wasting your money. I'd pick a different favorite to knock off. McLaughlin said because the DWC is not so far away from the BCC, they never let up on him. He as as close to 100% as he's going to be and he doesn't need to be at 100% to cruise tomorrow.
that's my opinion.

Jim,your killing me. KMc is not going to come up and tell the public that he isn't tightening the HORSE OF THE YEAR. He has to be careful with this one, especially given the ownership(US/Arab). They want to win the Dubai Cup and could care less about this race, and have a GREAT BUILT IN EXCUSE when he runs a good 2nd tomorrow.

Single the hell out of Strong Contender

--Brought to you by your local conspiracy theorist (?)

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

Jim,your killing me. KMc is not going to come up and tell the public that he isn't tightening the HORSE OF THE YEAR. He has to be careful with this one, especially given the ownership(US/Arab). They want to win the Dubai Cup and could care less about this race, and have a GREAT BUILT IN EXCUSE when he runs a good 2nd tomorrow.

Single the hell out of Strong Contender

--Brought to you by your local conspiracy theorist (?)

as the mighty Steve Byk told us this past weekend at Gulfstream, "with Kieran, it's almost the longer they've been off the better they are coming back."

Take it to the bank. At 3/5, but still, take it.

I'd cover your value horses in the other races with Invasor and try to get back a little on the pick-X if you're wrong.

[coltsfan]

I could be way off here (wouldn't be the first time), but I really think Chatain is sitting on a HUGE race. This guy has the possibilty to put on a freak performance in the Donn. Won the Hal after 2+ layoff. Comes back with a bullet Jan 29th. I see no bounce here.

[pick4]

Magna Graduate had it his own way in his last start. He was able to set uncontested splits of :24 :48 1:12 1:37 1:55.

That was a pace which was well within his range. It might not be the same way this time. While he is not a need the lead runner, he's going to run close to the pace which will be much faster than his last race. In the DOnn he'll have the reigning HOF not far behind stalking as well as Strong Contender.

This race looks like Invasor will win. But Strong Contender has shown flashes of talent. If you believe trainer talk, John Ward said prior to his last race that he was not ready and would need the race
( http://www.drf.com/news/article/81662.html ) .

I think there's a single in the prior race so I will add another horse to my pick3 and pick4 tickets. I'm leaning towards Strong Contender right now as my upset possibility. This could change in the next 17 hours.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

Jim,your killing me. KMc is not going to come up and tell the public that he isn't tightening the HORSE OF THE YEAR. He has to be careful with this one, especially given the ownership(US/Arab). They want to win the Dubai Cup and could care less about this race, and have a GREAT BUILT IN EXCUSE when he runs a good 2nd tomorrow.

Single the hell out of Strong Contender

--Brought to you by your local conspiracy theorist (?)

Single the hell out of Strong Contender??!! and you say that I'm killing you?

I don't buy for one minute that that winning this race means nothing to them. Does his record indicate that they approach races in a haphazard way or not to win?

Runs second tomorrow? ha. I can't understand why people are figuring that this horse will finish anywhere but first.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

as the mighty Steve Byk told us this past weekend at Gulfstream, "with Kieran, it's almost the longer they've been off the better they are coming back."

Take it to the bank. At 3/5, but still, take it.

I'd cover your value horses in the other races with Invasor and try to get back a little on the pick-X if you're wrong.

LOL!! Cover!!!!! Not covering here my friend, only cover when I am alive to the heavy chalk for big money and I spread out on the 20/1's to guarantee to a profit....

I am like Anikan Skywalker and Byk is like Obi Wan, except Anikan doesn't lose his legs in our story.....

Think about it from an owners perspective, all this race is meant for is to peak Invasor's interest again so I could show him off in my region in his next start. It just so happens to be a Grade 1 because they still get a decent paycheck to workout and run 3rd. Money is no object to them, but a free day of training for the owner (running 3rd almost equates to that amount, roughly) is better then just working in the morning

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Single the hell out of Strong Contender??!! and you say that I'm killing you?

I don't buy for one minute that that winning this race means nothing to them. Does his record indicate that they approach races in a haphazard way or not to win?

Runs second tomorrow? ha. I can't understand why people are figuring that this horse will finish anywhere but first.

I've loved Strong Contender for some time, but the only horse I see beating Invasor tomorrow is Chatain...and it won't be on his own merits, but only if Invasor doesn't come with his "A-game."

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by pick4

Magna Graduate had it his own way in his last start. He was able to set uncontested splits of :24 :48 1:12 1:37 1:55.

That was a pace which was well within his range. It might not be the same way this time. While he is not a need the lead runner, he's going to run close to the pace which will be much faster than his last race. In the DOnn he'll have the reigning HOF not far behind stalking as well as Strong Contender.

This race looks like Invasor will win. But Strong Contender has shown flashes of talent. If you believe trainer talk, John Ward said prior to his last race that he was not ready and would need the race
( http://www.drf.com/news/article/81662.html ) .

I think there's a single in the prior race so I will add another horse to my pick3 and pick4 tickets. I'm leaning towards Strong Contender right now as my upset possibility. This could change in the next 17 hours.

Can I ask who your single is in the prior race? While I plan to play Naissance Royal pretty hard, i will also be backing him up quite a bit. I going fairly wide in that one.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Single the hell out of Strong Contender??!! and you say that I'm killing you?

I don't buy for one minute that that winning this race means nothing to them. Does his record indicate that they approach races in a haphazard way or not to win?

Runs second tomorrow? ha. I can't understand why people are figuring that this horse will finish anywhere but first.

First off, I am pissed at you for blowing me off on Sunshine Million Day, not EVEN A RESPONSE TO MY PM...BLAH

But to respond to your haphazard way statement, I agree BUT it was a completely different situation then those 4 Grade 1's he won. COMPLETELY. He was proving himself, which he did, and now it is more of a pride thing from ownership angle. WHAT OTHER reason does he not go to stud? He can breed to almost anything and is worth a goldmine. THIS GUY WANTS TO WIN THE DUBAI WORLD CUP, so why GUT HIM NOW.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Can I ask who your single is in the prior race? While I plan to play Naissance Royal pretty hard, i will also be backing him up quite a bit. I going fairly wide in that one.

Gotta consider Wolfson/Castro there, I like Kent D's horse getting back to the lawn, and then Johnny V's horse is improving (paired his last two, which usually means EXPLOSION)

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

First off, I am pissed at you for blowing me off on Sunshine Million Day, not EVEN A RESPONSE TO MY PM...BLAH

But to respond to your haphazard way statement, I agree BUT it was a completely different situation then those 4 Grade 1's he won. COMPLETELY. He was proving himself, which he did, and now it is more of a pride thing from ownership angle. WHAT OTHER reason does he not go to stud? He can breed to almost anything and is worth a goldmine. THIS GUY WANTS TO WIN THE DUBAI WORLD CUP, so why GUT HIM NOW.

right, but let's say we concede that to you.....

at 80% he's still better than most this field, given strong contender's inconsistency and chatain's certain unknown possibilities.....

which means that even with one misfire, he still walks even if he's not amped for this.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Single the hell out of Strong Contender??!! and you say that I'm killing you?

I don't buy for one minute that that winning this race means nothing to them. Does his record indicate that they approach races in a haphazard way or not to win?

Runs second tomorrow? ha. I can't understand why people are figuring that this horse will finish anywhere but first.

His post makes sense. He's looking to hit a grand slam. If a longshot wins and it's on his ticket he'll be position to hit BIG. Worth a $20 gamble.

I think the favorite in the 8th is going to win which will lower the payouts on a Strong Contender win.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I've loved Strong Contender for some time, but the only horse I see beating Invasor tomorrow is Chatain...and it won't be on his own merits, but only if Invasor doesn't come with his "A-game."

I can't make a case for anyone beating Invasor. If lightening strikes or there is something wrong, thats one thing. But i can't look at the pp's and say, yeah this horse has a chance.

Chatain? Off his stirring defeat of Sir Greeley and SNS in the Hals Hope is now going to knock off Invasor in his next start? I just don't see it.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

right, but let's say we concede that to you.....

at 80% he's still better than most this field, given strong contender's inconsistency and chatain's certain unknown possibilities.....

which means that even with one misfire, he still walks even if he's not amped for this.

Disagree, and the figs prove that. SC is just as fast as Invasor, and SC is still about 6 months behind him

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Invasor will not lose to this bunch. You're wasting your money. I'd pick a different favorite to knock off. McLaughlin said because the DWC is not so far away from the BCC, they never let up on him. He as as close to 100% as he's going to be and he doesn't need to be at 100% to cruise tomorrow.
that's my opinion.

I tend to agree. He just doesn't seem like the kind of horse it is worth a lot of time and money trying to beat. There are simply better opportunities.

From a Pick-6 perspective, you pretty much single him, depending on how big your play is, and spend your money more beneficially in other races.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

Disagree, and the figs prove that. SC is just as fast as Invasor, and SC is still about 6 months behind him

but that's assuming an invasor misfire and a good day for strong contender.

the former has not been known to happen outside of the desert, and the latter happens more than most bettors would like.

so you're gambling on which trainer will get their horse ready for this one? kieran, who is known for these sorts of layoffs or ward who is a crapshoot at best?

you can have your non-invasor-including ticket.

respectfully, i say your logic is all wrong.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by pick4

His post makes sense. He's looking to hit a grand slam. If a longshot wins and it's on his ticket he'll be position to hit BIG. Worth a $20 gamble.

I think the favorite in the 8th is going to win which will lower the payouts on a Strong Contender win.

People are going to over play that favorite in the 8th, for good reason. EVEN if both favorites win (Biz/Royale) I am still alive to a better ticket then a $20 win wager in my opinion. I am gambling on the fact that 85 to 90% of the tickets have Invasor, and then people will get sucked into Chaitan and Magna

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

First off, I am pissed at you for blowing me off on Sunshine Million Day, not EVEN A RESPONSE TO MY PM...BLAH

But to respond to your haphazard way statement, I agree BUT it was a completely different situation then those 4 Grade 1's he won. COMPLETELY. He was proving himself, which he did, and now it is more of a pride thing from ownership angle. WHAT OTHER reason does he not go to stud? He can breed to almost anything and is worth a goldmine. THIS GUY WANTS TO WIN THE DUBAI WORLD CUP, so why GUT HIM NOW.

WTF! Sunshine millions? what did i do? are you confusing me with someone else?

They won't need to gut him to win, that's my point. he can win this in a hand ride and pride is important. You think they want as a tune-up to the DWC to not be able to beat Strong Contender?

we'll see. any horse can lose but i'm not betting that Invasor loses against these. plenty of other races to have an opinion on.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

but that's assuming an invasor misfire and a good day for strong contender.

the former has not been known to happen outside of the desert, and the latter happens more than most bettors would like.

so you're gambling on which trainer will get their horse ready for this one? kieran, who is known for these sorts of layoffs or ward who is a crapshoot at best?

you can have your non-invasor-including ticket.

respectfully, i say your logic is all wrong.

Your not understanding. I am creating a higher VALUE with Strong Contender then I would just playing him to win. I can't play Invasor to win, but I could play SC to win, but at 6/1 to beat Invasor, is low. But, if I can CREATE 20/1 on SC, it is WELL WORTH the investment of that $20.

[blackthroatedwind]

Strong Contender might be pretty good and is the likeliest horse in this race to challenge Invasor in 2007. His post hurts but he would be the only back up I would use on any tickets.