Ravel, How good is he ?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's a problem.

Personally I am sick about the polytrack at Keeneland, as I loved attacking that Spring meet in the past, and have done OK over the years. Now I am totally at sea and cannot bet money on anything but the turf races with any conviction. I guess I should at least try and educate myself.

It's a Yeoman's task.

I hated the old Keeneland track so don't mind the poly there. It makes for an interesting meet twice a year to see how various horses run on the stuff. The races are more exciting and I didn't find the capping particularly difficult from the 4 to 5 cards I capped there last fall. I don't like how it is spreading to so many other tracks though and I don't like a major Derby prep being run on it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I hated the old Keeneland track so don't mind the poly there. It makes for an interesting meet twice a year to see how various horses run on the stuff. The races are more exciting and I didn't find the capping particularly difficult from the 4 to 5 cards I capped there last fall. I don't like how it is spreading to so many other tracks though and I don't like a major Derby prep being run on it.

The problem, for me at least is two-fold. No doubt the bias on the dirt made playing problematic, but I was VERY careful there, and things worked out usually. But, the bias was sensational for trips leading into Churchill and sometimes even Belmont, and THAT is the edge that could be super profitable.

That is a significant loss.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The problem, for me at least is two-fold. No doubt the bias on the dirt made playing problematic, but I was VERY careful there, and things worked out usually. But, the bias was sensational for trips leading into Churchill and sometimes even Belmont, and THAT is the edge that could be super profitable.

That is a significant loss.

I agree with you there although it still amazes me that more people betting significant amounts of money couldn't have figured out that angle. Of course now you have people betting turf horses on the dirt off wins on poly so I guess there are other angles to be found. The thing is so many serious horseplayers are showing such a resistance towards learning the surface that there are probably loads of angles to be unearthed.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I agree with you there although it still amazes me that more people betting significant amounts of money couldn't have figured out that angle. Of course now you have people betting turf horses on the dirt off wins on poly so I guess there are other angles to be found. The thing is so many serious horseplayers are showing such a resistance towards learning the surface that there are probably loads of angles to be unearthed.

Here's the problem, when horses are trying a surface for the first time, as many are, it is very hard to trust, financially that is, form from another surface. Look, technically you are absolutely correct, as if we believe we are clever enough to decipher races better than most, we should be able to crack this case, as one of my most psychotic friends likes to say. However, I just feel like there is too much guessing involved, and I don't like to risk me money on that.

However, I need to at least do the work and see how my thoughts work out and what I can learn. I HAVE to do that. It's only a 15 or 16 day meet ( depending on Easter ) so I think I can manage to find the 50 hours or so to do the work.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Here's the problem, when horses are trying a surface for the first time, as many are, it is very hard to trust, financially that is, form from another surface. Look, technically you are absolutely correct, as if we believe we are clever enough to decipher races better than most, we should be able to crack this case, as one of my most psychotic friends likes to say. However, I just feel like there is too much guessing involved, and I don't like to risk me money on that.

However, I need to at least do the work and see how my thoughts work out and what I can learn. I HAVE to do that. It's only a 15 or 16 day meet ( depending on Easter ) so I think I can manage to find the 50 hours or so to do the work.

My apologies for turning this into an interview, but I've always been curious about handicapping for a living (not that I'm quitting my day job). How much time do you spend a day capping and does it ever feel like "another day at the office" where you just don't have interest to do it?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Here's the problem, when horses are trying a surface for the first time, as many are, it is very hard to trust, financially that is, form from another surface. Look, technically you are absolutely correct, as if we believe we are clever enough to decipher races better than most, we should be able to crack this case, as one of my most psychotic friends likes to say. However, I just feel like there is too much guessing involved, and I don't like to risk me money on that.

However, I need to at least do the work and see how my thoughts work out and what I can learn. I HAVE to do that. It's only a 15 or 16 day meet ( depending on Easter ) so I think I can manage to find the 50 hours or so to do the work.

You a pirate?

I hear you on not wanting to risk the money. Definitely seems like it makes sense though to do the capping and find the angles even if it means 50 hours of work without placing a wager.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

You a pirate?

I hear you on not wanting to risk the money. Definitely seems like it makes sense though to do the capping and find the angles even if it means 50 hours of work without placing a wager.

*Shaking head*

You guys are seriously funny tonight. LOL LOL

[blackthroatedwind]

Oh, I'll place wagers, just not relatively significant ones.

Work is work. I find a lot of the racing work fascinating at times, and drudgery at other times, but you sort of develop a routine and try to stick to it. I'm a little burnt right now. I did both NY and Gulfstream since the beginning of the year, and with the amount of work I do, that's a lot. So, right now I feel a little crispy. But, if you're winning especially, it's OK.

To tell you the truth, I've been doing it for so long, even when I was working downtown, that it seems unnatural not to do the work.

I liked the pirate joke.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Oh, I'll place wagers, just not relatively significant ones.

Work is work. I find a lot of the racing work fascinating at times, and drudgery at other times, but you sort of develop a routine and try to stick to it. I'm a little burnt right now. I did both NY and Gulfstream since the beginning of the year, and with the amount of work I do, that's a lot. So, right now I feel a little crispy. But, if you're winning especially, it's OK.

To tell you the truth, I've been doing it for so long, even when I was working downtown, that it seems unnatural not to do the work.

I liked the pirate joke.

Thanks for answering my question, this will be great material for my up-coming book; "Don't Wake Me at 9 am and other Derby Trail Tales"

[blackthroatedwind]

Doesn't matter, as there is work being done on the exterior of my building for the next three months on my side. Right now they are right outside my bedroom, hammering and jackhammering starting at 9am everyday.

I'm a little grumpy about it. OK.....more than a little grumpy about it.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Doesn't matter, as there is work being done on the exterior of my building for the next three months on my side. Right now they are right outside my bedroom, hammering and jackhammering starting at 9am everyday.

I'm a little grumpy about it. OK.....more than a little grumpy about it.

Stop making me smile.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Doesn't matter, as there is work being done on the exterior of my building for the next three months on my side. Right now they are right outside my bedroom, hammering and jackhammering starting at 9am everyday.

I'm a little grumpy about it. OK.....more than a little grumpy about it.

I'm pretty pleasant...but that would pretty much send me over the edge even if I was already awake.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I'm pretty pleasant...but that would pretty much send me over the edge even if I was already awake.

Honestly, and believe me I realize most people have things much tougher than I do, but it's f'n brutal. I was working at my desk today, and the window is RIGHT next to me, and there were two dudes on my ledge. They were moving my screen.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I'm pretty pleasant...but that would pretty much send me over the edge even if I was already awake.

I am unpleasant ...and that would make me go postal

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Honestly, and believe me I realize most people have things much tougher than I do, but it's f'n brutal. I was working at my desk today, and the window is RIGHT next to me, and there were two dudes on my ledge. They were moving my screen.

Yeah, F that...

I'll never understand why they can't pick a better freaking time to do shiat like that.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Honestly, and believe me I realize most people have things much tougher than I do, but it's f'n brutal. I was working at my desk today, and the window is RIGHT next to me, and there were two dudes on my ledge. They were moving my screen.

No question....I'd loose it.

I can't stand repetative noises I have no control over. We have an attorney who chews his gum so loudly I can hear it all day long and it takes every last bit of my being to not freak on him.

[blackthroatedwind]

My super, not that I blame him, thinks it's a riot.

[alysheba4]

ravel ia a monster in the making......my god, a freaking blind man can see it

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

ravel ia a monster in the making......my god, a freaking blind man can see it

But tell me how the son of a bitch moves!!!!

[miraja2]

I have to assume that much of the hype surrounding this colt is pedigree-related.
Based on performance alone, he probably doesn't belong in anyone's top-5 derby horse lists. However, anytime a colt that is by FuPeg and out of a graded-stakes winning AP Indy mare wins ANY Derby prep, there is going to be more hype than there would be (and perhaps should be) for some horse with a different pedigree.
I put him on my top5-list in part for this reason. I don't think he is one of the top five 3yos in training right now overall, but in terms of having the ability to get 10f effectively, I think he is perhaps more likely to do that than others who may be more talented at say......8.5f.
Am I right? Who knows.