No Derby for Hard Spun ???

[MarkyD]

On his website last night:

Larry and I have been setting a plan with options for about a week now. We would both love nothing more than to run in the Kentucky Derby. Of course, we want to feel confident we have a very good chance of winning. I have thought about our options carefully and want to take the smartest approach possible. Therefore, since there is so much talk about the similarities of the surfaces of Oaklawn and Churchill, Larry and I want to test the track. He will ship down Friday and gallop for several days and then breeze at Churchill. Mario Pino will come in for that breeze. If he handles the track to Larry's satisfaction, we will run in the Derby. If he does not, we will aim for the Lexington on April 24th. The goal will be the Preakness if we skip the Kentucky Derby. Larry and I both feel these two options are the best approach for Hard Spun. I am trying my best to avoid "Derby Fever." We feel this is a very good and well thought out plan.

Rick

[slotdirt]

Just sounds like they're hedging their bets. If the horse is healthy, you have to believe Porter wants to run in the big race after what happened with Rockport Harbor a couple of years ago.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by MarkyD

On his website last night:

Larry and I have been setting a plan with options for about a week now. We would both love nothing more than to run in the Kentucky Derby. Of course, we want to feel confident we have a very good chance of winning. I have thought about our options carefully and want to take the smartest approach possible. Therefore, since there is so much talk about the similarities of the surfaces of Oaklawn and Churchill, Larry and I want to test the track. He will ship down Friday and gallop for several days and then breeze at Churchill. Mario Pino will come in for that breeze. If he handles the track to Larry's satisfaction, we will run in the Derby. If he does not, we will aim for the Lexington on April 24th. The goal will be the Preakness if we skip the Kentucky Derby. Larry and I both feel these two options are the best approach for Hard Spun. I am trying my best to avoid "Derby Fever." We feel this is a very good and well thought out plan.

Rick

What in the hell is Porter talking about? What similiarities between Oaklawn's and Churchill's surfaces? And who's doing all this talking about it? If they're so concerned about their 'well thought out plan' and the Preakness is the goal, ship to Pimlico and 'test' its' surface. Good grief. No outfit does more hand-wringing and teeth-gnashing than Fox Hill. It's unbelievable.

[NTamm1215]

There was another story about this in the Philadelphia Inquirer this morning. It's posted on racingdispatch.com in the midwest section.

In it Jones is basically dancing around the topic of whether Hard Spun will run in the Blue Grass. He makes no commitment then starts talking about how he's nervous that the Oaklawn and Churchill surfaces are very similar. He says that normally horses who like Oaklawn like Churchill because it's a bit cuppier. He also admitted that skipping the Derby, should Hard Spun show he doesn't like Churchill, is a possibility.

Very interesting development and definitely weird in my opinion.

NT

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

What in the hell is Porter talking about? What similiarities between Oaklawn's and Churchill's surfaces? And who's doing all this talking about it? If they're so concerned about their 'well thought out plan' and the Preakness is the goal, ship to Pimlico and 'test' its' surface. Good grief. No outfit does more hand-wringing and teeth-gnashing than Fox Hill. It's unbelievable.

Agreed. And I don't buy the "he didn't handle the track" crap in the Southwest. He was hung 3-4 wide the whole way around from an impossible post at a mile, and still only got beat 3 lengths to a lone speed and earned a good speed figure. Not to mention he worked what 3 times at Oaklawn and fired a bullet every time. Why do they try to excuse away every loss these days? He lost. So what. He came back and dominated his next start.

He's currently at the top of my Derby list but I hate this indecision. It's not as egregious as some other guy's decision to try to win the Derby off what amounts to 1 race campaign in 2007 and an 8 week layoff... but close.

[slotdirt]

With the news of the last couple of days, who the heck IS going to run in the Derby?

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

With the news of the last couple of days, who the heck IS going to run in the Derby?

The winner, Scat Daddy.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

With the news of the last couple of days, who the heck IS going to run in the Derby?

An EXTREMELY fresh..............Green Monkey!!!!

[johnny pinwheel]

that horse has alot of early tactical speed the preakness is probably perfect. in the big field of the derby(usually with several that don't belong) he could be burnt in a fast pace. very rarely does a horse win up front because thay are going 1 1/4 the first time and the first half blisters the front pack. thats how some of these "bomb" closers win the race , the most recent was giacumo.

[whodey17]

Churchill's surface can get "cuppy" but we all know it is far from "cuppy" on Derby day. The track is like a concret surface on that day. In addition, the stretch is much longer that Oaklawn's and it isn't downhill. I have no clue what these people are thinking. It pisses me off at times when people cannot stick to a plan. I have to give credit to Carl N. He had a plan for Street Sense ever since the Breeders Cup and he hasnt wavored from it. Win or lose at lease he stuck to his plan.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by whodey17

Churchill's surface can get "cuppy" but we all know it is far from "cuppy" on Derby day. The track is like a concret surface on that day. In addition, the stretch is much longer that Oaklawn's and it isn't downhill. I have no clue what these people are thinking. It pisses me off at times when people cannot stick to a plan. I have to give credit to Carl N. He had a plan for Street Sense ever since the Breeders Cup and he hasnt wavored from it. Win or lose at lease he stuck to his plan.

Aside from changing what race SS would make his debut in this year he has stuck to the two race campaign.

NT

I am not sure why they think Oaklawn and Churchill Downs are so similar. Hard Spun though doesn't appear to be in the elite category. The Lexington is another polytrack race which he obviously handled. If I am correct, Hard Spun will be worth quite a bit in the breeding shed, and maybe they feel a win in the Lexington will be worth more than a 5th or 6th place finish in the derby, which is the best I could see him doing.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by MarkyD

On his website last night:

Larry and I have been setting a plan with options for about a week now. We would both love nothing more than to run in the Kentucky Derby. Of course, we want to feel confident we have a very good chance of winning. I have thought about our options carefully and want to take the smartest approach possible. Therefore, since there is so much talk about the similarities of the surfaces of Oaklawn and Churchill, Larry and I want to test the track. He will ship down Friday and gallop for several days and then breeze at Churchill. Mario Pino will come in for that breeze. If he handles the track to Larry's satisfaction, we will run in the Derby. If he does not, we will aim for the Lexington on April 24th. The goal will be the Preakness if we skip the Kentucky Derby. Larry and I both feel these two options are the best approach for Hard Spun. I am trying my best to avoid "Derby Fever." We feel this is a very good and well thought out plan.

Rick

This has to be one of the biggest crocks I have ever heard. I find it amazing that people think that they can gallop over a track for a few days and maybe breeze once and tell definitively "if he likes the surface". As someone who has trained at Churchill for the last seven years I have had plenty of horses who trained exceptionally over it and ran poorly. Also the weather at this time of the year plays so much into the way the track is playing. When it is warm like it has been the last few days it will get tight. When it gets cold the track loosens up quite a bit. Not to mention all the rain and wind we can get at a moments notice. Just shut up and run your damn horse and stop trying to outthink yourself. It is still called horse racing but I hear that a name change may be in the works.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by whodey17

Churchill's surface can get "cuppy" but we all know it is far from "cuppy" on Derby day. The track is like a concret surface on that day. In addition, the stretch is much longer that Oaklawn's and it isn't downhill. I have no clue what these people are thinking. It pisses me off at times when people cannot stick to a plan. I have to give credit to Carl N. He had a plan for Street Sense ever since the Breeders Cup and he hasnt wavored from it. Win or lose at lease he stuck to his plan.

Good points

[Jax Cajun]

Originally Posted by Benevolus

I am not sure why they think Oaklawn and Churchill Downs are so similar. Hard Spun though doesn't appear to be in the elite category. The Lexington is another polytrack race which he obviously handled. If I am correct, Hard Spun will be worth quite a bit in the breeding shed, and maybe they feel a win in the Lexington will be worth more than a 5th or 6th place finish in the derby, which is the best I could see him doing.

Exactly, they see Hard Spun as their meal ticket. They'll never get another horse this good.

[cmorioles]

And people laugh when I say I would have a better idea of where to place horses than mosts trainer would. Could he be more clueless about his own horse?

Cannon, note I said "most"!

[blackthroatedwind]

I just love the " Hard Spun didn't like Oaklawn " comments. Funny, he ran arguably his best race there, and certainly his best dirt race, so I guess it is fair to assume that he really hated the other surfaces he ran on.

What a joke.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Bababooyee

Actually, you said "mosts".

Cut the guy a break....he's in Belgium.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

And people laugh when I say I would have a better idea of where to place horses than mosts trainer would. Could he be more clueless about his own horse?

Cannon, note I said "most"!

I think Larry is a very good trainer but it is hard to believe that he is waffling so much therefore I am putting most of the blame on Porter. I mean unless there is a physical problem that we dont know about why would they want to pass on the Derby in a year where the firld has so many question marks? I know Porter has a presence in the mid atlanic region but the Preakness is a consolation prize except to the Derby winner. They talk so much about a specific surface that this horse handles or does not handle as though they can "manage" that part of the scenario. Like it was stated before, the surface Derby Day usually has no relation to the one that is used for training a month before.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I think Larry is a very good trainer but it is hard to believe that he is waffling so much therefore I am putting most of the blame on Porter. I mean unless there is a physical problem that we dont know about why would they want to pass on the Derby in a year where the firld has so many question marks? I know Porter has a presence in the mid atlanic region but the Preakness is a consolation prize except to the Derby winner. They talk so much about a specific surface that this horse handles or does not handle as though they can "manage" that part of the scenario. Like it was stated before, the surface Derby Day usually has no relation to the one that is used for training a month before.

I do too. One of the most underrated in the nation.

I've got a new theory... if they waffle enough, the future book odds will go up! Yeah, that's it!