Thorograph #'s- Past Derby Winners

[smuthg]

I went back through the numbers for past Derby winners over the 25 years and I was surprised to see how high some of the numbers were. Has there been a change in the Thorograph formula/numbers over the last several years? For example, according to T/G Ferdinand got a 7, Sunday Silence got a 6.1 and Real Quiet got a 3.3. With that as a backdrop, Barbaro got a -2. I was as big a fan of Barbaro as anyone, but was he that much better than those 3 or is it an issue of a change in the formula?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i dont know but the sheet guys took it in the culo..with saint last year..voodoo pick

[Scav]

Horses are just getting faster, which is a topic that is covered in Thorograph's seminars that are also somewhere the archive.

If you want to learn about figs in general, alot of the archive material is a great listen

[golfer]

You answered your own question, Scav... as far as Thoro is concerned, horses are just getting faster. Not only will it probably take a negative # to win this year, it will most likely need to be done by a horse that has already run one (another study noted very few horses run tops to win the derby).

[Scav]

Originally Posted by golfer

You answered your own question, Scav... as far as Thoro is concerned, horses are just getting faster. Not only will it probably take a negative # to win this year, it will most likely need to be done by a horse that has already run one (another study noted very few horses run tops to win the derby).

I didn't ask the question, Smuthg did.....

[golfer]

Sorry, I was doing my speed reading excercises, not paying close enough attention

[Scav]

Originally Posted by golfer

Sorry, I was doing my speed reading excercises, not paying close enough attention

As far as this years Derby, it will most definetely need a neg number, and there is really only three horses that can get there IMO. CQ, SS and Scat Daddy......I havent seen Curlin's sheet yet but I hear it is consistent, but I refuse to bet that horse, gonna let him beat me.....

[hockey2315]

Does anyone know which derby contenders this year have run negative numbers already?

[golfer]

I was just about to ask about Scat Daddy. Unless his last at Gulf was negative, he hasn't. I don't know about CQ either (he may have gone neg in Louisiana)... but I believe that leaves us with Street Sense. I would also assume Curlin got a negative # for his last at Oaklawn. For some unknown reason, I keep waiting for NoBiz to break thru with a huge effort, I don't know what his Wood # was yet. (Bottom line, obviously I haven't seen the final derby sheets yet, this discussion should be held again next week)

[Scav]

Originally Posted by golfer

I was just about to ask about Scat Daddy. Unless his last at Gulf was negative, he hasn't. I don't know about CQ either (he may have gone neg in Louisiana)... but I believe that only leaves us with Street Sense. For some unknown reason, I keep waiting for NoBiz to break thru with a huge effort, I don't know what his Wood # was yet.

CQ went neg at LA, Scat Daddy can GO negative with his pattern.....

[smuthg]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Does anyone know which derby contenders this year have run negative numbers already?

If my memory is correct Neg. #'s thus far are Circular Quey, Curlin and Street Sense.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Scav

Horses are just getting faster, which is a topic that is covered in Thorograph's seminars that are also somewhere the archive.

If you want to learn about figs in general, alot of the archive material is a great listen

To think that Barbaro was 10 sheet points faster than Ferdinand or Sunday Silence is really funny

[cloud_break]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

To think that Barbaro was 10 sheet points faster than Ferdinand or Sunday Silence is really funny

Its more than funny, its riduculous. Horses might be getting faster, but to suggest that Barbaro was that much faster than those two..........

[golfer]

Originally Posted by Cardus

The same phenomenon has occured with Ragozin Sheets as well. If you look at the Ragozin home page and click on "Past Derby Winners," you'll see a similar trend.

The horses are running faster, they need more time between races... and so on.

For instance, the notion that Ghostzapper was faster than Secretariat is on the surface laughable.

Not that I am needed to defend TG (or am in any way qualified), but the way I rationalize these seemingly laughable comparisons, is if you put Secretariat in the same conditions 20 years later (track speed, "training techniques", etc..) that Ghostzapper ran with, he would be running much faster numbers than he did in the 70's. I would only compare horses from different eras to their competition at the time. This is simply my opinion, I could be wrong.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

As far as this years Derby, it will most definetely need a neg number, and there is really only three horses that can get there IMO. CQ, SS and Scat Daddy......I havent seen Curlin's sheet yet but I hear it is consistent, but I refuse to bet that horse, gonna let him beat me.....

LOL, Street Sense can't get there? Any Given Saturday has been close as well.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

LOL, Street Sense can't get there? Any Given Saturday has been close as well.

Joe, he's got Street Sense ("SS") in there..

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Joe, he's got Street Sense ("SS") in there..

You are correct sir, my bad Scav.

[parsixfarms]

Does this mean that Sunday Silence and Easy Goer weren't fast enough to be in the Hall of Fame??

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Does this mean that Sunday Silence and Easy Goer weren't fast enough to be in the Hall of Fame??

Sunday Silence was a rat. (I kid. )

[Unstable]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Sunday Silence was a rat. (I kid. )

East coast bias rears its ugly head.

Those races between Easy Goer and Sunday Silence were the most competitive races I remember seeing between two horse, for an entire year. I never knew for sure who was going to win, even if I was pulling for Sunday Silence. Yeah, West coast bias....