Belmont 5/9/07

[ARyan]

I feel like playing a little bit today...

At first glance at Belmont, this is what I have come up with;

Race 1

#3 - Scr
#4 - Freedom Isnt Free
#6 - Miltary Major

Race 2

#1e- Scr
#2 - Brown Eyed Belle
#6 - Smokin Sarah
#8 - Nordberg

Race 3

#1 - scr
#3 - Noble Deeds
#5 - Too Risky
#7 - L'Oiseau d'Argent

Race 4

#2 - Inside Info
#9 - Stricking Rizzi

Race 5

#1 - Five Siblings
#4 - Egypt Lane
#5 - All You Need

Race 6

#2 - scr
#3 - Radio Cat
#7 - Crescent's Joker

Race 7

#4 - Acquired Cat
#6 - Girl in Uniform
#7 - Classic Expression
#8 - scr

Race 8

#1 - Smach'Em Sammy
#6 - Bustin Stones
#7 - Indian Camp

Race 9

#1 - Runaway Star
#5 - Saint Chi Chi
#10 - Rosie of Geri
#11 - Sweet Colors
#12 - scr
I will keep looking and post some picks.

[philcski]

A couple Belmont thoughts...

R1) #6 Military Major (15-1 ML) is interesting. Last time at this trip and level, he registered a 2 length victory where the field was strung out pretty good behind him before getting trounced by the Dutrow Indian War Dance for $50k. Colita may be done and I wouldn't touch him at 3/1.

R2) #5 Ruth Drive (4-1 ML) has the pace advantage on this group and I'd expect Arroyo to be sending, hopefully he can control the pace to enough to leave something left in the stretch.

R7) #4 Aquired Cat (3-1 ML) will be murder against this group back on her preferred surface. Doubtful the 3-1 holds up. A solid P3, P4 key in a race many will be spreading.

R9) #5 Saint Chi Chi (5-1 ML) drops from MSW's and gets Prado, ran her final quarter in :23 4/5 in her last which would toast this group if she can get a little closer to the pace early.

[pmacdaddy]

I'm going to try late pk4

3,7 / 4,6,7,10 / 5,6 / 1,5,9,10
$64

Good Luck Today!

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by philcski

A couple Belmont thoughts...

R1) #6 Military Major (15-1 ML) is interesting. Last time at this trip and level, he registered a 2 length victory where the field was strung out pretty good behind him before getting trounced by the Dutrow Indian War Dance for $50k. Colita may be done and I wouldn't touch him at 3/1.

R2) #5 Ruth Drive (4-1 ML) has the pace advantage on this group and I'd expect Arroyo to be sending, hopefully he can control the pace to enough to leave something left in the stretch.

R7) #4 Aquired Cat (3-1 ML) will be murder against this group back on her preferred surface. Doubtful the 3-1 holds up. A solid P3, P4 key in a race many will be spreading.

R9) #5 Saint Chi Chi (5-1 ML) drops from MSW's and gets Prado, ran her final quarter in :23 4/5 in her last which would toast this group if she can get a little closer to the pace early.

Nice work. I can't beleive that Zippy Shannon is entered for a tag in the 7th.

I like Aquired Cat but can't leave ZS off. Zippy Shannon is 10 of 12 ITM with a 50% win rate (including a stake) and one of the top City Zip progenys. I'll be amazed if Linda Rice lets her get passed the claim box.

Edit - old data - just got the pp's for the 7th - she's had 15 starts, 11 ITM...first time over turf - Schosberg is 0-17 first time turf starts and she's coming off 2 month layoff....me thinks the tag is making more sense...Probably won't use her.

[ARyan]

I am going to play the late PK4;

Race 6: #3, #7 WON
Race 7: #1, #4
Race 8: #1, #6, #7
Race 9: #1, #5, #10, #11

2 X 2 X 3 X 4 = $48

Good luck.

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Nice work. I can't beleive that Zippy Shannon is entered for a tag in the 7th.

I like Aquired Cat but can't leave ZS off. Zippy Shannon is 10 of 12 ITM with a 50% win rate (including a stake) and one of the top City Zip progenys. I'll be amazed if Linda Rice lets her get passed the claim box.

Edit - old data - just got the pp's for the 7th - she's had 15 starts, 11 ITM...first time over turf - Schosberg is 0-17 first time turf starts and she's coming off 2 month layoff....me thinks the tag is making more sense...Probably won't use her.

I used her, only because if she can turf, she might be able to handle these, and with those doubts you expressed, might be a decent price. Too scary for me to leave off.

[ateamstupid]

Bombs away at Big Sandy.. This early Pick 4 is going to pay HUGE.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Bombs away at Big Sandy.. This early Pick 4 is going to pay HUGE.

I'm singled on the 5 in the next leg of the p3 with 6 horses in the last. Went 3 deep in the first leg and caught the bomb.
Wish me luck.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by ARyan

I used her, only because if she can turf, she might be able to handle these, and with those doubts you expressed, might be a decent price. Too scary for me to leave off.

More questions than answers with this choice in placement. The horse is a proven world beater on dirt, comes off a two month layoff directly to a surface she's never raced over before, by a trainer that clearly hasn't had any success with (0-17). AND entered for a tag....Just isn't adding up -

[ARyan]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

More questions than answers with this choice in placement. The horse is a proven world beater on dirt, comes off a two month layoff directly to a surface she's never raced over before, by a trainer that clearly hasn't had any success with (0-17). AND entered for a tag....Just isn't adding up -

I agree, but that may have scared me into putting her on my ticket. Obviously they picked this spot thinking nobody would drop a slip, with questions like the ones you presented. I know I would want to watch this race, not drop a slip here. Where if she was on dirt, you know there might be a shake at this price.

[ARyan]

Wow, the #3 got up to get by Zippy Shannon.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by ARyan

Wow, the #3 got up to get by Zippy Shannon.

Yeah, she looked great. The 3 had all kind of run. the first time I've seen a Running Stag filly win in NY in a while...I usually stay away from those, glad I got tied up and didn't get my late P3 in - I don't think I would have added her at 11-1.....

[pmacdaddy]

I thought the 6f would be too short for her style. Guess I was wrong...

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Nice work. I can't beleive that Zippy Shannon is entered for a tag in the 7th.

I like Aquired Cat but can't leave ZS off. Zippy Shannon is 10 of 12 ITM with a 50% win rate (including a stake) and one of the top City Zip progenys. I'll be amazed if Linda Rice lets her get passed the claim box.

Edit - old data - just got the pp's for the 7th - she's had 15 starts, 11 ITM...first time over turf - Schosberg is 0-17 first time turf starts and she's coming off 2 month layoff....me thinks the tag is making more sense...Probably won't use her.

Just an FYI, Zippy Shannon was claimed by Levine, so you weren't the only sharp eye that wouldn't let her get by the claim box.

As an aside, I didn't have a live tote today (they blocked all the outlets at work, grrrr), I was shocked Highly Spoken got away at 35-1. The damsire was a multiple G1 winner on turf (obviously in a NYB MSW very few are regally bred for turf) and he had shown moderate ability on dirt (more than most of the bums in the 4th could say.) I wish I did, because I wouldn't have just played a pick 3 flier with him.