Preakness races 9-12 writeup (WARNING: CHALK)

[ateamstupid]

Preakness Day Pick 4

Leg A (Race 9): The Barbaro Stakes, 1 1/16 Miles, $150,000, 3 (Post Time: 3:37 p.m. EST)

1 - Vow to Greatness (Randy Allen / Jorge Duarte) 10-1
SCRATCHED

2 - Stonehouse (Joseph Broussard / Calvin Borel) 10-1
Chester House colt comes into this off the best race of his life, a second in the $80,000 Land of Lincoln at HAW for IL-breds, during which he chased winner Caruso around the track, but finished 3 clear of third. Thing is, that was only a four-horse field, and holding second against two IL-breds and beating a group of open horses in a $150,000 stake are two very different things. One bonus in his corner is that he's got some speed - especially with the stretchout - and this field doesn't have much in the way of challengers for the lead. Still, while there may be no pure speed types, there are plenty who are fast enough to make sure this bay doesn't get too loose up front. Not sold on chances.

3 - Silver Express (Nick Zito / Edgar Prado) 5-1
Gray son of Unbridled's Song ran a huge race in the CD slop to finish his two-year-old campaign, but hasn't quite matched up to that just yet in four starts at three. Ran a solid enough race three back when second by a head to Hal's My Hope in a GP N1X, but followed that up with an ugly run on Fountain of Youth day, finishing 32 1/2 lengths behind this race's likely favorite, Chelokee. He bounced back nicely in the $114,000 Lafayette at KEE, but it's not like he blew the doors off everyone - he ran seventh, beaten 4 1/2, earning a BSF of 82 and a TG of 8 1/4. He seems to have a good race, bad race pattern going, and even if he can buck that, it's questionable whether he can run back to that Nov. 7 effort at CD if the track doesn't come up icky. Prefer others.

4 - Soaring By (Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez) 5-2
SCRATCHED

5 - Dancin Buddha (Laura Dennis / Alan Garcia) 20-1
Buddha gray is similar to the rail runner in that he seems to make his run no matter what, but that one seems superior to this colt in many ways. Vow to Greatness has been in the exacta three out of four times, this dude has only cracked it once, in his maiden win. Vow to Greatness has numerous 75+ BSF numbers and sub-10 TG numbers, this guy doesn't have one of either. Would definitely go for Vow to Greatness if looking for a closer.

6 - Chelokee (Michael Matz / Ramon Dominguez) 1-1
Barbaro's barn sends out this Cherokee Run colt who's shown immense promise since dominating a DEL MSW last fall. He initially looked as if he was failing to improve after that, but really turned the corner at GP in his last two starts. Firstly, he broke his N1X condition on Mar. 3 despite a near impossible trip in which he tracked a hot pace, checked on the turn, dropped 6 lengths back, then closed to get up late. Centennial's charge followed that up with another trouble-filled run, this time a third at 8-1 in the G1 FL Derby. Was a candidate for the Derby, but encountered some trouble the week before and skipped the race. Considered for Preakness as well, then Matz changed his mind, and therein lies the only negative. There possibly was a sentimental reason for entering this guy in the Barbaro, but a Preakness win would've been even cooler. Nonetheless, if this colt is on his toes, he has every right to demolish this group. Hard to get past him.

7 - Zephyr Cat (Francis Campitelli / Luis Garcia) 10-1
Tactical Cat gelding has proven to be a shrewd purchase, bought for $5,500 as a yearling and moving forward very nicely since debuting on Jan. 3. His best start to date came last out in the $100,000 Frederico Tesio. He was no challenge to winner and Preakness starter Xchanger, but he closed nicely to get third, earning an 84 BSF and 6 1/4 TG in the process. The issue is that he needs another move forward to be a win contender here, and that was a big effort in the Tesio to improve on, especially in his sixth start in less than five months. Never out of the trifecta in five tries, which is something to chew on, as he will be a solid price, and he also has a versatile running style that can adapt to the pace and a local jockey familiar with the course. Thinking he isn't quite ready to jump up and win a race like this, but he certainly could come get a piece late and spice up the exotics.

(6) Chelokee - The horse to beat and sentimental favorite FIRST
(4) Soaring By - SCRATCHED
(2) Stonehouse - Chance to take advantage of reasonable pace FOURTH
(7) Zephyr Cat - Allows race to come to him THIRD

[ateamstupid]

Leg B (Race 10): The Dixie Stakes, 1 1/8 Miles (Turf), Grade II, $250,000, 3+ (Post Time: 4:22 p.m. EST)

1 - Can't Beat It (Marty Wolfson / Rafael Bejarano) 15-1
First half of uncoupled Wolfson entry comes into this off a weird effort in the G3 Miami Mile BC where he didn't get out of the gate for a good second or so, earning the short comment "dwelt" usually reserved for European races. He made a decent move to get into contention, but understandably evened out and ended up sixth, beaten 5 on the line. Willing to give him a pass for that and barn looks like it means business with two quick works back at CRC since. But there are issues. First off, not sure if he's fast enough to win this, even on his best and secondly, he certainly finds trouble for himself an awful lot. It's also a bit of a concern that Castro is on Wolfson's other runner, although Bejarano isn't a shabby replacement. Thinking this dude has a good future on the turf, but this seems like too tough a spot for him at this point.

2 - General Jumbo (Graham Motion / John Velazquez) 30-1
Interesting spot for this son of Dansili who's been working lights out at FAI but hasn't been seen racing since running a disappointing eighth in a CD optional claimer last fall. He ran decently in a couple of 12-furlong turf heats before that, but was still unable to crack the trifecta in three stakes tries. The presence of Velazquez would be more interesting if it looked as if he had other options, and it doesn't seem that he did. Placing says that Motion has confidence, but perhaps it's a bit too much. Leaning elsewhere.

3 - Cosmonaut (Patrick Biancone / Edgar Prado) 9-2
Lemon Drop Kid gray tried grass after disappointing in the G1 Stephen Foster last spring, and certainly took to it, immediately scoring a victory in the G3 Arlington at AP. He ran a respectable fifth behind a slow pace in the G1 Arlington Million, then proceeded to run solidly in a few more G1 events in the summer and fall. Was laid off after a disconcerting fifth in the G1 Hollywood Turf Cup, but boy did he come back running at KEE on Apr. 21. He stalked the pace in hand, then went four wide on the far turn and blew by the leaders in the stretch to score by 3 3/4, earning a BSF of 104 and TG of 2 for the run. Wasn't a great field, but it was a nasty performance for a prep, and Biancone has eased back on him in his two interim works, signaling that he got something out of the effort. Not crazy about the inside post, but he's got the tactical speed to make his own trip and look plenty scary turning for home. A must use.

4 - Dreadnaught (Tom Voss / Jean Luc Samyn) 10-1
Former jumper has been banging around the graded stakes landscape for a while now, picking up checks every once in a while, but never breaking through and getting the victory. His nearest try to date was in this very race last year, when he got outbobbed by fellow veteran gelding Better Talk Now and ran second at 12-1. He hasn't quite duplicated that performance since, but perhaps a return to the PIM grass will do the trick, and he ran a few big efforts at GP recently. Still, it's hard to trust a seven-year-old who doesn't have a win on the page to run down a bunch of spry young whipper snappers with more tactical speed and better records. Certainly wouldn't be surprised to see him snare a trifecta finish, but all for 'Naught would be mildly startling at least.

5 - Silver Tree (Bill Mott / Calvin Borel) 5-1
Another old-timer, this chestnut was as consistent as any between 8-9 furlongs as recently as last spring, but save for a score in the G3 Appleton, he's been surprisingly mediocre in four starts since taking the $85,000 Turf Classic at TAM last April. To be fair, he probably was in over his head in the G1 Turf Classic at CD, he had major trouble at the break in the $50,000 Tri-State at ELP and he was trying to run down a loose leader in the G3 John B. Connally BC at HOU last out. It's still a possibility that he's lost a step at 7, and at 5-1 on the ML, he doesn't seem like much value. It's also not exactly encouraging that Mott couldn't book a rider for him at entry time. Would be foolish to toss him entirely, as he showed in the Appleton that he's still got some pep in his step, but not loving his potential as a win bet.

6 - Woodlander (Gary Contessa / Alan Garcia) 20-1
Forestry bay showed promise in early turfing days, scoring a victory in the G3 Lexington at BEL in the spring of '05, but he's been somewhat of a disappointment since then, failing to win another stakes until scoring at 12-1 in the G3 Fort Marcy at AQU last time out. That effort was doubly impressive when considering that it came off a near six-month layoff with a light worktab. All the five-year-old has done in the meantime is blow out a bullet five furlongs last Saturday. His career high BSF of 97 and TG of 3 3/4 leaves something to be desired, but it's definitely within the realm of possibility that he improves off his last effort, and that would be good enough to get him at least a piece of the pie. Dangerous at a price.

7 - Stay Close (Michael Zwiesler / Mark Guidry) 20-1
Little known but sharp (40% in 2007) outfit sends out this Belong to Me gelding fresh off local victory in $75,000 Henry Clark, and while this bay doesn't seem to match up figure-wise to most of these, he's now familiar with the course and tough to fault connections for taking a shot. It's just that this field is worlds better than anything he faced last time and it's going to be tough to improve a sufficient amount on the large class jump. Hot horse probably cools off in here.

8 - Wood Be Willing (Michael Matz / Ryan Fogelsonger) 30-1
SCRATCHED

9 - Einstein (Helen Pitts / Robby Albarado) 3-1
Brazilian-bred has turned into quite a nice turf runner in a relatively short span of time, running two big races from impossible posts in the winter, earning negative TG numbers each time. That may have contributed to him breaking as the favorite in the G1 Turf Classic at CD two weeks ago, and he didn't do a ton of running, finishing seventh, although beaten only 3 at the string. Draws outside yet again and spins back on short rest, but give him a break for CD run, and it's not like he ran awful, he just wasn't as good as he was in his previous two starts. On any kind of bounceback, he's going to prove quite formidable, wide post or no. Expecting a big effort.

10 - Outperformance (Rick Violette / Garret Gomez) 8-1
Talented sophomore was a disappointment in his four-year-old debut, running fourth in an N3X at KEE, although he did close well after being 7 back at the 5/16 pole. Not quite sure why Castellano doesn't come in for the mount and the truth is this Aptitude colt simply hasn't run fast enough to win this kind of race yet. Still, he's a consistent sort that'll put in his run, and note that he's got plenty of experience over wet grass, which will come in handy if the rains come today. He probably will need a very quick pace up front, but if he gets one, he'll be gaining with every stride late.

11 - Mending Fences (Marty Wolfson / Eddie Castro) 10-1
The wild card in the race, this five-year-old speedball has really come of age recently, running two big races on the GP turf before scoring a solid victory in the J.B. Connally BC over Silver Tree. Earned a 103 BSF two back when second to multiple graded stakes winner English Channel after setting a quick pace. He doesn't meet any other balls-to-the-wall speed types today, but there are plenty of horses who can keep him honest, and the 11-hole isn't exactly the ideal slot for a frontrunner even though there's a long run into the first turn. Son of Forestry certainly is going well right now, but thinking there are too many obstacles to overcome in here for him to notch a victory.

12 - Remarkable News (Angel Penna / Ramon Dominguez) 7-2
Consistently fast Venezuelan-bred made a name for himself with quick win in G2 Fourstardave last summer at SAR, then ran a big second in the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile in the fall. Penna chose to skip the BC Mile with his colt, and instead give him the winter off. He returned with a good, if unspectacular win at GP, then broke terribly in the G2 Maker's Mark and was taken out of his game, forced to go four wide around both turns. He ran sixth, but was only beaten 2 1/4, and now makes his third start off the layoff. The drawbacks are obviously the post and the fact that neither Douglas nor Castellano came in for the ride. He's still imposing.

(3) Cosmonaut - Will be tough to beat with any improvement off comeback SECOND
(9) Einstein - Too talented to ignore despite another outside draw DNF
(12) Remarkable News - Was up against it after slow start last out FIRST
(10) Outperformance - Main beneficiary if quick fractions materialize THIRD

$2 EXACTA - $49.80
$2 TRIFECTA - $388.00

[ateamstupid]

Leg C (Race 11): The William Donald Schaefer Handicap, 1 1/8 Miles, Grade III, $100,000, 3+ (Post Time: 5:10 p.m. EST)

1 - Ryan's for Real (John Alecci / Ramon Dominguez) 8-1
Sword Dance gelding ran an utterly monstrous race two back in an optional claimer win in the LRL slop, earning a 105 BSF and a huge TG of -3 3/4. Last out, he probably regressed and didn't care for the polytrack, as he barely lifted a foot in the G2 Commonwealth BC at KEE. Note that the big race two back wasn't his only huge effort this year, as he blew away another optional claimer field on Jan. 27 (96 BSF, -2 1/4 TG), then ran third at 9-1 in the G2 General George BC (103 BSF, 1 1/2 TG). The main concern is that he's questionable beyond a mile and he'll probably be close to a quick pace after breaking from the rail. Gets his two-turn acid test today, and could be dangerous at a price if not suckered into a speed duel.

2 - Two Sixty Four (Tim Keefe / Ryan Fogelsonger) 20-1
Local shot looked to be turning into a useful router towards the end of '05, but then came complications that forced him to be laid off for over 13 months. It took him a while to return to form, but he did so in his last race, running second at 10-1 in a sloppy sprint at LRL. Took him a while to get back to work in the morning, but when he did, he blew out :58 and change at LRL. Thing is, he's probably going to be close to a quick pace today, and considering his fragile history, not sure of the chances he runs back to his last, let alone improves off it enough to matter in here.

3 - Take the Bluff (Rick Violette / Garret Gomez) 10-1
Chestnut son of Pine Bluff ran only 3/4 of a length behind today's favorite, Hesanoldsalt last summer, but hasn't quite moved forward like that one has since. This five-year-old is another who likely will be up on a fast pace early on, and he's gotta improve significantly off his last two to be a win candidate. Can't see him not getting weary late.

4 - Urban Conquest (Peter Bazeos / Horacio Karamanos) 30-1
Just three races removed from claiming company, this five-year-old gelding jumps into G3 company despite having a high BSF of 84 and high TG of 3 1/4. Would like him a little bit if his figures were a little stronger, because he's one of few who can take advantage of quick fractions. Seems too slow.

5 - Smelling Salts (Laura Dennis / TBD) 20-1
SCRATCHED

6 - Belongs to Joe (Mike Gorham / Joe Rocco) 15-1
Belong to Me bay ran huge at DEL last out, sitting off some hot fractions and closing late to score an optional claimer win, earning a BSF of 96 and TG of 1 1/2 in finishing the mile-and-70 in a blazing 1:39 3/5. The performance looks doubly impressive when it's taken into consideration that he won over a speed-favoring track that day. As great as all that it, with 24 races under his belt at four, it doesn't seem reasonable to expect the big progression today it would take to win this. Nevertheless, he could get the first run on the closers and at least hit the board at a big number.

7 - Hesanoldsalt (Nick Zito / Edgar Prado) 1-1
Think the morning line is nuts on this Live Oak runner, although he does look mighty threatening. Dark bay or brown colt was a useful runner last summer and fall, but really picked up his game late in the year, winning a very fast G3 Fred Hooper in the CRC slop, then crossing the wire first in a high priced optional claimer at GP before being DQ'ed to second. His big race came Feb. 3, when he was a closing second at 16-1 behind '06 HOY Invasor in the G1 Donn. His subsequent effort, a narrow second in the G2 GP was a little disappointing, but he's been given time to recuperate after a long racing schedule since. Not in love with the way he's been shipped around, first from CD to BEL and now to PIM, and he missed a work at the end of April, but he's one of the few contenders in here who's proven an ability to drop back and make one run. Obviously obvious.

8 - Sunriver (Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez) 5-1
Never been a fan of this full brother to Ashado, as he's never really done anything to merit the hype laid on him mainly because of his connections and blood. He ran some solid races last spring, but was far up the track behind Bernardini in the G2 Jim Dandy, then ran a very mediocre third in his return at AQU. Understand that it was just a prep, but he was pretty much a total no-show, and he's going to have to jump up about 20 points on the BSF scale and 8 points on the TG scale to be a winner in here. Main asset is that he doesn't need to be near the lead, but still not loving his chances to take home the big prize.

9 - Flashy Bull (Kiaran McLaughlin / Alan Garcia) 7-2
West Point gray was 1-for-14 in his career before his last two, winning an N1X at GP and scoring by 4 in an optional claimer at BEL. He earned big numbers for that last effort, but to be honest, he hasn't really proven yet to be a force beyond a mile. The outside draw isn't ideal, as Garcia will have to do a lot of maneuvering to get him into a good spot early on, and at the relatively short price, going to make him prove that he's a legitimate two-turn animal.

(7) Hesanoldsalt - Race appears to set up for him at short ML odds SECOND
(1) Ryan's for Real - Win two back is too quick to ignore THIRD
(6) Belongs to Joe - Scored in wicked fast time on speed-favoring DEL strip FIFTH
(9) Flashy Bull - Questionable thus far at distance FIRST

$2 EXACTA - $20.40
$2 TRIFECTA - $79.40

[ateamstupid]

Leg D (Race 12): The Preakness Stakes, 1 3/16 Miles, Grade I, $1,000,000, 3 (6:09 p.m. EST)

1 - Mint Slewlep (Bob Bailes / Alan Garcia) 30-1
Son of Slew City Slew scored at odds-on at LRL two back, but failed to make much of a dent in the G3 Withers last out. Last local work was very quick, but this bay would need vast improvement off his previous races to make a difference in this and that just doesn't seem likely.

2 - Xchanger (Mark Shuman / Ramon Dominguez) 15-1
Exchange Rate gray ran a big fifth in the $250,000 Southwest at OP, beaten only a length by Derby runner-up Hard Spun despite legitimate traffic trouble. He was foolishly sent up on a quick pace in the G3 Rebel and paid the price late, beaten 12 1/2 at the wire, and he bounced back in a big way in the $100,000 Frederico Tesio, blowing away five rivals, being taken in hand late. Blew out a really quick five furlongs at FAI last out and appears to be coming into this ready for a top effort. He's got to improve a significant amount to be a win candidate in this one, but he'll probably carve out a good trip and is an exacta threat at a price.

3 - Circular Quay (Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez) 8-1
Tabor closer really wasn't all that far up the track in the Derby, running sixth despite trouble and perhaps a bit of a premature move at the 3/4 pole. He'll probably get some decent fractions to close into today, but it's still a legitimate question whether or not he's better areound one turn. He ran a big one two back in the G2 LA Derby, but that's about the only race he hasn't found some trouble for himself in. Mixed feelings.

4 - Curlin (Steve Asmussen / Robby Albarado) 7-2
Lightly-raced chestnut didn't quite run his usual race in the Derby, but he certainly didn't disgrace himself, finding himself far back early, getting a lot of dirt in his face, but kicking into gear late to pass tired horses and pick up third while not threatening the top two finishers. He's got to face those two again today, but this is a smaller field and the son of Smart Strike will probably receive a more comfortable trip. Contender.

5 - King of the Roxy (Todd Pletcher / Garret Gomez) 12-1
Second string of Pletcher ran a huge race to win the G2 Hutcheson off a layoff after breaking slowly and running four wide on the turn, then made the lead late in the G1 SA Derby, but wilted to be second late. He's going to have to prove that he's as effective around two turns as he is around one, but if he does so, he'll make some noise at a price.

6 - Flying First Class (Wayne Lukas / Mark Guidry) 20-1
CA-bred colt ran a monstrous race to begin his three-year-old season, winning an OP sprint by 8 and earning a 107 BSF and -2 TG in the process, but he hasn't lived up to that race since. He faded badly when unable to get the lead in the Rebel, then did the same in the G2 AR Derby. He progressed, however, in his last race, stalking a quick pace in the $117,000 Derby Trial and drawing off to win by 3 3/4. That was one turn, though, and he's another that's yet to prove himself routing. He'll probably get to the front today, but will have plenty of pressure on either side. Can't envision a scenario where he doesn't cave late.

7 - Hard Spun (Larry Jones / Mario Pino) 5-2
Derby pacesetter held on stubbornly after setting some decent fractions and bobbling at the 1/8 pole when Street Sense cut in front of him. Best part about this bay son of Danzig is that he doesn't have to lead, he can sit right off the clip set by Flying First Class and make his move at the top of the lane. Thing is, he's done nothing but move forward in every race, and somewhere that's got to end. Didn't like how wobbly he looked in the stretch of the Derby, either and he might get caught wide around the turns today. Obvious contender, but an underlay at his ML odds.

8 - Street Sense (Carl Nafzger / Calvin Borel) 7-5
Derby winner is clearly very talented, but has some significant knocks against him as he tries to take the middle jewel of the Triple Crown. For one, he's enjoyed perfect trip after perfect trip in his wins, and draws outside today with everyone else knowing what Borel wants to do. Secondly, Nafzger has admitted all along that he's been focusing on nothing but the Derby with this colt, and the Preakness has been an afterthought in his training regimen. Borel also isn't great when he's not allowed to sneak up the rail. With all of that said, he's got a mighty strong kick for a dirt horse, he's proven that he can get the distance and his work on Tuesday was plenty impressive. Bettor side doesn't like him, fan side is pulling for him. Must use either way.

9 - C P West (Nick Zito / Edgar Prado) 20-1
Pretty disappointed in his two races as a three-year-old, considering how much potential he showed at two. He missed by a nose at odds-on in a GP sprint, then ran second as the chalk in the Withers. His top BSF of 92 and TG of 5 leaves plenty to be desired. Outsider.

(4) Curlin - Chance to return to dazzling AR form FIRST
(8) Street Sense - Would love to see him win as a fan SECOND
(2) Xchanger - Should get solid trip and would love some moisture EIGHTH
(7) Hard Spun - Seems most likely to regress off Derby THIRD

$2 EXACTA - $23.20
$2 TRIFECTA - $50.00

Pick 4 ticket:

6 / 3,9,12 / 7 / 2,4,7,8

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

very nice joey..great job...

[fpsoxfan]

Hey guys...the chalk is prevailing.....will things change?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Hey guys...the chalk is prevailing.....will things change?

Yea!!
I'm half way home on my pick 6 ticket which will pay on the order of $80-$100