Ryan is Flying- Today Bel 7th

[Gander]

Going for an upset in here. Razor sharp, game horse knows how to find the winners circle. At 11/1 this horse is a strong play.

[Gander]

Anyone want to explain why Sis City is 6/1 in here? Huh? Funny stuff.

[blackthroatedwind]

And not 20-1 like she should be...or do you mean lower?

[Gander]

Yes I was thinking Sis City should be at least 20/1 in here. Now at 5/1? Huh?

[DerbyCat]

Why do I feel I should be putting a bet on Sis City right now and kissing my Velazquez P-3 goodbye?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Gander

Yes I was thinking Sis City should be at least 20/1 in here. Now at 5/1? Huh?

People are fools. The idea that she's the same price as Brunilda, less than half the price of Natalie beach, and almost half the price of Thetactics ofDance is ludicrous. It's not even like she's lone speed with Miss Matched, and even the ridiculous Midtown Miss, to insure at least an honest pace.

Add all that to the fact that she can't run anymore and she might be the worst 5-1 of all time.

[Gander]

Dont do it. Stick with your bets. Changing bets because of odds is often a very dumb thing to do. I only brought this up because I thought Sis City was 20/1 in this spot.

$60 win 9
$40 ex box 9-2
$20 Doubles 9/3,7,8

[blackthroatedwind]

I am rarely a big advocate of short priced horses, especially off layoffs, but isn't Melhor Ainda in a completely different league than these horses?

I have a small backup with Brunilda but barring an incident I think the favorite is a mortal lock here.

[Gander]

Buddy, Brunilda was scratched hours ago. Not sure what kind of backup you can have there

[blackthroatedwind]

Sorry, I meant Bright Abundance.

I decided to try and get Natalie Beach into the exacta, or triple, as she is WAY too big a price. Only used the fav on top.

[Downthestretch55]

Tim,
Nice pick on Ryan.

[Assttodixie]

Does anyone know what the percentages are for the rider/trainer combo of Obrien and Velasquez over the last two years? For some reason, I remember betting this combo before with success although JV doesnt take many mounts from him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Considering Leo O'Brien almost never wins I can't imagine it is too special.

This is one of the sillier " angles " if you ask me. So Johnny rides a few for his father-in-law, and taking the mount on a 2-1 shot today was hardly any kind of big favor, and they are always overbet due to the combination. I would be shocked if the ROI is anywhere close to the takeout ( 1.70 ) and would expect it to be much closer to 1.00. Probably 1.25 is the absolute high end.

[Assttodixie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Considering Leo O'Brien almost never wins I can't imagine it is too special.

This is one of the sillier " angles " if you ask me. So Johnny rides a few for his father-in-law, and taking the mount on a 2-1 shot today was hardly any kind of big favor, and they are always overbet due to the combination. I would be shocked if the ROI is anywhere close to the takeout ( 1.70 ) and would expect it to be much closer to 1.00. Probably 1.25 is the absolute high end.

Yeah, youre probably right. Maybe i pay too much attention to things like that. It just seems like there are sometimes where you can find something.

[blackthroatedwind]

I just looked it up. Over the last five years they are 10% together with an ROI of $1.20.

I would recommend, as always, that handicapping is better than angles....especially ones involving jockeys.

[Gander]

I liked the horse but to be honest at 2/1, the race became a no play for me. Didnt like anyone else enough to try and beat him and didnt trust anyone enough for 2nd in the exacta.

Johhny V being on this horse was a double edge sword for me. It ensured a better ride than Mike Smith gave him but it also ensured half the price this horse should have been and would have been with Smith aboard. Lets be real, the horse got an absolute perfect trip under a textbook ground saving ride from one of the best in the business. And he still only won by a half length at 2/1. Big deal.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Gander

I liked the horse but to be honest at 2/1, the race became a no play for me. Didnt like anyone else enough to try and beat him and didnt trust anyone enough for 2nd in the exacta.

Johhny V being on this horse was a double edge sword for me. It ensured a better ride than Mike Smith gave him but it also ensured half the price this horse should have been and would have been with Smith aboard. Lets be real, the horse got an absolute perfect trip under a textbook ground saving ride from one of the best in the business. And he still only won by a half length at 2/1. Big deal.

I completely agree.

Everything you said before the race ( the only time it matters ) was 100% true. He had really run well with lousy trips and was clearly the horse to beat except he has a tendency to hang on the money. Hell, he even did today, barely winning despite getting an absolutely perfect trip.

He's also one of those horses that is ALWAYS overbet. The lesson to be learned is never name a horse with someone's name in it because those horses always take unnecessary and stupid money. Of course, this horse isn't named for someone named Ryan, but Tony Ryan ( I think that's his name ).

[Gander]

Black-

Agree! Why the constant interest from the public on this horse boggles my mind. I didnt think anyone else besides me was insane enough to pay this horse any interest. Thought for sure I'd get at least 4/1 on him today. When he opened at 7/5 I sort of chuckled and said no way.

Last summer I needed this horse to win the last race of the day at Saratoga for a pick 4 which I had a straight $20 on, coming back $400 (for $2) and also had a straight $40 on the pick 3 which was coming back $150 (for $2), so there was a score to be had. It was a very evenly matched field where the favorite went off at 7/2 and there were about 5 horses in the 7/2 to 6/1 range, Ryan is Flying was one of those.

I felt very confident that I would at least get a run for my money and some good juice coming down the lane. Wouldnt you know it this horse doesnt fire at all and runs like 7th with not one move at all. I think Continental Reins won that race. Didnt lose money on the day because that was the same day that Private Vow romped in a 3 horse field and went off at an unbelievably generous 6/5, and I put 6 bills to win on him. But still a huge disappointment.

After Ryan is Flying pooped out I felt like I get punched in the stomach. Horse racing can do that to you.