Who will be burning money?

[JJP]

A look at the favorites and most of them look very vulnerable.....

F/M Sprint: Dream Rush hasn't had to deal with the pace pressure she'll get on Friday. The Prioress was once again arguably the weakest Grade 1 of the year in North America. She already has lost at 3-10 at GP.

Juvenile Turf: With the turf likely on the soft side, Prussian becomes a total unknown and the Euros have to move up. But even with them, one of them (Strike the Deal) is unproven past 6f and another Domestic Fund starts from the dreaded 12 hole.

Dirt Mile--I couldn't bet Discreet Cat with monopoly money. If the horse really was 100%, wouldn't they run in the Classic? This horse has had so much hype he's still overbet, even when he couldn't outfinish Talent Search last out.

Juvenile Fillies- This appears to be one of the strongest chalks; of the favorites, the second most likely to get a win.

Juvenile--War Pass looks like too many others in the past who ran big in the Champagne then came up empty in the Breeders Cup. Its hard to knock his last race but I see him regressing.

F/M TUrf---with the turf on the softer side, Nashobas Key becomes a question mark. Too many others have handled soft turf.

Sprint---Midnight Lute will be favored off the Sar race and probably deserves to be. His best is definitely good enough but he also could easily run a middle of the pack race. 3rd most likely favorite to win.

Mile--who will be favored? I'm guessing either After Market will be scratched or won't be bet heavily. Excellent Art may go off favored but from the 13 hole, why take the short price?

Distaff--I suspect the m/l fave, Indian Vale, will NOT be favored here. The betting figures to be so close from 1st to 5th choice that it doesn't matter who is favored although I believe Lear's Princess should be.

Turf---hard to go against Dylan Thomas here. Probably looking at a legit 4-5 shot.

Classic--Lawyer Ron or Street Sense? I think they'll both go off co-favored. Of the two, I prefer Street Sense.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by JJP

A look at the favorites and most of them look very vulnerable.....

F/M Sprint: Dream Rush hasn't had to deal with the pace pressure she'll get on Friday. The Prioress was once again arguably the weakest Grade 1 of the year in North America. She already has lost at 3-10 at GP.

Juvenile Turf: With the turf likely on the soft side, Prussian becomes a total unknown and the Euros have to move up. But even with them, one of them (Strike the Deal) is unproven past 6f and another Domestic Fund starts from the dreaded 12 hole.

Dirt Mile--I couldn't bet Discreet Cat with monopoly money. If the horse really was 100%, wouldn't they run in the Classic? This horse has had so much hype he's still overbet, even when he couldn't outfinish Talent Search last out.

Juvenile Fillies- This appears to be one of the strongest chalks; of the favorites, the second most likely to get a win.

Juvenile--War Pass looks like too many others in the past who ran big in the Champagne then came up empty in the Breeders Cup. Its hard to knock his last race but I see him regressing.

F/M TUrf---with the turf on the softer side, Nashobas Key becomes a question mark. Too many others have handled soft turf.

Sprint---Midnight Lute will be favored off the Sar race and probably deserves to be. His best is definitely good enough but he also could easily run a middle of the pack race. 3rd most likely favorite to win.

Mile--who will be favored? I'm guessing either After Market will be scratched or won't be bet heavily. Excellent Art may go off favored but from the 13 hole, why take the short price?

Distaff--I suspect the m/l fave, Indian Vale, will NOT be favored here. The betting figures to be so close from 1st to 5th choice that it doesn't matter who is favored although I believe Lear's Princess should be.

Turf---hard to go against Dylan Thomas here. Probably looking at a legit 4-5 shot.

Classic--Lawyer Ron or Street Sense? I think they'll both go off co-favored. Of the two, I prefer Street Sense.

Nice work here JJP. I'm in total agreeance here with Discreet Cat. Not only do I not envision him not hitting the board, I see him finishing in the bottom half of this field. At least that's how the race unfolds in my mind.

[Indian Charlie]

i must be the only person alive who thinks dylan thomas is a sucker bet.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

i must be the only person alive who thinks dylan thomas is a sucker bet.

No, i'm with you. Although he is the best horse in the race, and should just toy with these, the Arc stat is hard to overlook and now the turf as gone soft, i don't think he has any shot at all. In fact, i don't think he will even run. They have too much to lose with him. Why risk it when he has already proved himself to be a very, very good horse this year.

I don't think the fav in the Juvie fillies is a good bet, either. There is so much pace in the race. Indian Blessing looked out on her last legs in the last furlong last out, she is going further this time and with more pace pushing her harder. I think she is dreadful value. A closer should win this one. Izarra would be my guess.

[brockguy]

if dylan performs 5 lengths below his best, he still should win.. Hes known not to like soft ground but the ground was still soft when he won the arc and seems to take his races well.. I wouldnt be putting the mortgage on him though..

oh and i think we may be saying what a great price DCat is when he hoses up this evening....

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by brockguy

if dylan performs 5 lengths below his best, he still should win.. Hes known not to like soft ground but the ground was still soft when he won the arc and seems to take his races well.. I wouldnt be putting the mortgage on him though..

oh and i think we may be saying what a great price DCat is when he hoses up this evening....

The ground was only just on the soft side of good for the Arc. Maybe even a bit quicker than that so the jocks were reporting.

It will be european soft come the off time of the turf on Saturday. 100% chance of rain most of Saturday afternoon. I'm 75% sure they won't even run him, he has far too much to lose.

Discreet Kitty is interesting. On his Cigar Mile form he will win this doing handstands, but at 6/4 you have to oppose him. I don't think he is a big price at all. If he wins, he wins but currently, you have to oppose him. Gottcha Gold is big value ew in my opinion.

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

The ground was only just on the soft side of good for the Arc. Maybe even a bit quicker than that so the jocks were reporting.

It will be european soft come the off time of the turf on Saturday. 100% chance of rain most of Saturday afternoon. I'm 75% sure they won't even run him, he has far too much to lose.

Discreet Kitty is interesting. On his Cigar Mile form he will win this doing handstands, but at 6/4 you have to oppose him. I don't think he is a big price at all. If he wins, he wins but currently, you have to oppose him. Gottcha Gold is big value ew in my opinion.

do u think they wont run him?? im not sure really how bad the ground is, or how bad the ground can get.. if its soft as we call it, id say he'll run but any worse and you could be spot on. the field looks so bad that he should be 2nd at least no matter what ground they have..


The only thing that scares me about D Cat is his ridiculous workout time last week.. If hes back to his best, he can win this by double digits...

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by brockguy

do u think they wont run him?? im not sure really how bad the ground is, or how bad the ground can get.. if its soft as we call it, id say he'll run but any worse and you could be spot on. the field looks so bad that he should be 2nd at least no matter what ground they have..


The only thing that scares me about D Cat is his ridiculous workout time last week.. If hes back to his best, he can win this by double digits...

They have far to much to rsk with Dylan. Everyone still expects him to win. This is 99% likely to be his last run before he is reitred. Getting beaten in a weak renewal of the turf won't be something they are comtemplating. We have all seen that he is a good few lengths better on fast ground.

Last week, Monmouth were reporting a dry week and expected firm turf at the weekend. Did you see the state of the track yesterday? The dirt is sloppy and they were off the turf yesterday. More rain expected today (80% chance) and 100% chance of rain all afternoon on Saturday. Jeremy Noseda said the ground was "good to soft" yesterday. They were expecting it to be a little softer today.

Magnier is already getting worried about the stats of Arc winners, and it wouldn't take much for him to pull him out in my opinion.

Even if they only get 50% of the rain they are predicted to get, the turf will be european soft on Saturday.

You're right about Discreet Cat, if he's back to his best he could run the mile twice and win both times, but that is a big IF....... and i wouldn't be able to back him, just hoping he was back to his best. They said he seemed really well last time but in the back of my mind things didn't seem right, and i get the same feeling this time. Godolphin are keen to win the Classic, and if he was back to his very best why aren't they going for that, especially now Coolmore have a runner in it.

[PPerfectfan]

Originally Posted by JJP

A look at the favorites and most of them look very vulnerable.....

F/M Sprint: Dream Rush hasn't had to deal with the pace pressure she'll get on Friday. The Prioress was once again arguably the weakest Grade 1 of the year in North America. She already has lost at 3-10 at GP.

Juvenile Turf: With the turf likely on the soft side, Prussian becomes a total unknown and the Euros have to move up. But even with them, one of them (Strike the Deal) is unproven past 6f and another Domestic Fund starts from the dreaded 12 hole.

Dirt Mile--I couldn't bet Discreet Cat with monopoly money. If the horse really was 100%, wouldn't they run in the Classic? This horse has had so much hype he's still overbet, even when he couldn't outfinish Talent Search last out.

Juvenile Fillies- This appears to be one of the strongest chalks; of the favorites, the second most likely to get a win.

Juvenile--War Pass looks like too many others in the past who ran big in the Champagne then came up empty in the Breeders Cup. Its hard to knock his last race but I see him regressing.

F/M TUrf---with the turf on the softer side, Nashobas Key becomes a question mark. Too many others have handled soft turf.

Sprint---Midnight Lute will be favored off the Sar race and probably deserves to be. His best is definitely good enough but he also could easily run a middle of the pack race. 3rd most likely favorite to win.

Mile--who will be favored? I'm guessing either After Market will be scratched or won't be bet heavily. Excellent Art may go off favored but from the 13 hole, why take the short price?

Distaff--I suspect the m/l fave, Indian Vale, will NOT be favored here. The betting figures to be so close from 1st to 5th choice that it doesn't matter who is favored although I believe Lear's Princess should be.

Turf---hard to go against Dylan Thomas here. Probably looking at a legit 4-5 shot.

Classic--Lawyer Ron or Street Sense? I think they'll both go off co-favored. Of the two, I prefer Street Sense.

I have to agree with you on Discreet Cat, if he wins, good for him but he wont get any of my money. I also have a big question mark beside the horses coming out of the Champagne, yeah they won and ran 2nd but both of the favs, came out of the race with injuries, so did they beat nice horses or horses with problems? In the F&M Turf, Nasobas Key is the one I would love to see win, but soft turf is a major concern and really she hasnt been going up agianst world beaters, not that that is her fault, but it raises major red flags. In the Distaff, I am just amazed how little respect Octave is getting, she is just a mare that tries everytime and the fast pace should suit her as they come back to her and she grinds them down. Teamate is another one that wouldnt surprise me if she ran a nice race. In the Mile, Ex.Art has ahorrible post but he is heads above the others but, chalk,chalk, chalk, I like several in here. Jeremy is one that has had several nice works, Purim is my bomb that I will be playing also. In the Classic, Street Sense all the way! I think Curlin will be right there, but I think Lawyer Ron and Hard Spun will hook up and LR will show his usually dislike for rating and have nothing left for the finish. The only one no one is talking about is Any Given Sunday, and I really cant find any reason to knock his last 2 races. My 2 longshots in the Classic is Tiago and Awsome Gem.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You're 75% sure they are not going to run? Based on what? You think they flew him across the Atlantic to scratch because it's soft?

For one, it was firm when they flew over and at that point there was no talk about it becoming soft.

For two, before the Arc they weren't really interested about coming to this race anyway. They even said if they won the Arc (which they did) they wouldn't be going to America with him. I don't think they will be too bothered if he doesn't run.

Three. They have a few other runners with half decent chances, it's not as if they have spent lots by just taking him over not to run.

Four. DT has shown he isn't the same horse or anywhere near when running on soft ground. With this likely to be his last run (if he does run) Coolmore will be gutted if he retires on a low note, which is more than likely on soft ground.

Five. The horse has much more to lose than to gain...... does he have anything to gain by winning this? Not really.

Six. The coolmore team are getting very concerned about the Arc winners stats for this race, the soft ground gives them a real excuse to take him out and forget about those dreadful stats. He had a fairly hard race there, and their concerns could be justified.

Seven. Before the Arc they were leaving it until late about whether to run him or not. If the ground was deemed too soft they would have pulled him out.


There are more than enough reasons for him not to run in the Turf. I Cons of running greatly outweigh the pros of running.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

For one, it was firm when they flew over and at that point there was no talk about it becoming soft.

For two, before the Arc they weren't really interested about coming to this race anyway. They even said if they won the Arc (which they did) they wouldn't be going to America with him. I don't think they will be too bothered if he doesn't run.

this is the main reason that I'm considering some type of small play against him. this is often when things go awry when plans are modified in the afterglow of a big win. "hey! lets go win that BC race in three weeks. DT will trounce that field". by rights he should clean their clocks tomorrow because he no doubt lays over the field, but there are many variables in play that could trip him up also.

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

For one, it was firm when they flew over and at that point there was no talk about it becoming soft.

For two, before the Arc they weren't really interested about coming to this race anyway. They even said if they won the Arc (which they did) they wouldn't be going to America with him. I don't think they will be too bothered if he doesn't run.

Three. They have a few other runners with half decent chances, it's not as if they have spent lots by just taking him over not to run.

Four. DT has shown he isn't the same horse or anywhere near when running on soft ground. With this likely to be his last run (if he does run) Coolmore will be gutted if he retires on a low note, which is more than likely on soft ground.

Five. The horse has much more to lose than to gain...... does he have anything to gain by winning this? Not really.

Six. The coolmore team are getting very concerned about the Arc winners stats for this race, the soft ground gives them a real excuse to take him out and forget about those dreadful stats. He had a fairly hard race there, and their concerns could be justified.

Seven. Before the Arc they were leaving it until late about whether to run him or not. If the ground was deemed too soft they would have pulled him out.


There are more than enough reasons for him not to run in the Turf. I Cons of running greatly outweigh the pros of running.

Eight. Thanks for the insight.

Ten. Oh bother! Tally ho!! I forgot nine!

Eleven. He'll run.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So when he runs, what are you going to say? I have neither the time, nor the energy to dissect each point you make and I am not trying to be rude. But over the last few days I think people are going nuts. We've heard cancelling races, off the turf, jocks boycotting and now seemingly the biggest cinch on the day is scratching because of the tainted reasons you have above.

The Arc stats are misleading, take a good look at them, or better yet, watch the Youbet show BTW did, it discusses it. He has made his mark and will be a very high commodity as a sire when he retires. Nothing he does tomorrow will taint that. He has had a unbelievable career. He'll run.

If he runs i will be surprised. Aidan isn't the sort of trainer who will run his horses just for the sake of running them.

Tainted reasons? If those aren't very good reasons not to run, i don't know what are the good reasons.

If the ground is very soft, which there is every chance it could be, he will get stuffed. You clearly have no idea of how ground dependant this horse is.

The BC turf was never the plan with him, i was first surprised when they said they were actually going to run him. It was never the plan. As i said, before the Arc they said they doubted he was going, and they said if he was to win, America would be well and truly off the cards.

The Arc stats are misleading? 0-8, or is it 0-10 Arc winners? If Magnier is concerned, that is enough for me to be a little concerned to.

If he runs and gets stuffed tomorrow, it won't help his sire status. His Arc win was the best performance of his career. They would much prefer to retire him with that clear in the mind of everyone.

I will ask you again, what does he have to gain by running in this race? The answer you are looking for is nothing.

All the talk over here is that he would be a very doubtful starter if the rain does arrive on Saturday.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Eight. Thanks for the insight.

Ten. Oh bother! Tally ho!! I forgot nine!

Eleven. He'll run.

and you know that for a fact, do you?

I'm not saying he will definitley get scratched, but there is a big chance of it happening, and the more rain they get the more likely he will be scratched.

I really don't see what they will gain by running him.

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

and you know that for a fact, do you?

I'm not saying he will definitley get scratched, but there is a big chance of it happening, and the more rain they get the more likely he will be scratched.

I really don't see what they will gain by running him.

What do you get a prize if he doesn't run? Or are you just batshit insane with the essays?

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

What do you get a prize if he doesn't run? Or are you just batshit insane with the essays?

How old are you?

All i'm saying is that at the moment there is a real doubt about him actually running on Saturday. Why would they want to risk him when he has nothing to prove and on turf that he will hate?

They have worried about soft turf before, and what will be any different this time?

They weren't really bothered about this race before the Arc, they weren't really bothered about it after the Arc and then all of a sudden they were going to run him. Soft turf will change that.

It was being called european good to soft by the jocks and the trainers yesterday.

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

How old are you?

All i'm saying is that at the moment there is a real doubt about him actually running on Saturday. Why would they want to risk him when he has nothing to prove and on turf that he will hate?

They have worried about soft turf before, and what will be any different this time?

They weren't really bothered about this race before the Arc, they weren't really bothered about it after the Arc and then all of a sudden they were going to run him. Soft turf will change that.

It was being called european good to soft by the jocks and the trainers yesterday.

I just don't like your smug attitude. Period. If the BC is so unimportant then wtf are you doing posting on a board primarily for American racing other than to troll?

Your insight is that of a fan yet you're acting like an insider. You aren't. You don't know what they're going to do. I was mocking you.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So when he runs, what are you going to say? I have neither the time, nor the energy to dissect each point you make and I am not trying to be rude. But over the last few days I think people are going nuts. We've heard cancelling races, off the turf, jocks boycotting and now seemingly the biggest cinch on the day is scratching because of the tainted reasons you have above.

The Arc stats are misleading, take a good look at them, or better yet, watch the Youbet show BTW did, it discusses it. He has made his mark and will be a very high commodity as a sire when he retires. Nothing he does tomorrow will taint that. He has had a unbelievable career. He'll run.

the guy simply thinks there is a chance he won't run, and gave his reasons for it. why is it necessary for you to imply he is nuts? why does every poster have to pass your sanity test or else get badgered to no end? its so tiresome.

[JJP]

Re: the stat on Arc winners in the Turf, I thought the sample size was really small; I thought it was 4; I could be wrong on that but I thought I heard that the other day. And Trempolino ran a great race; he lost a photo to a great American grass horse (Theatrical). Secondly, there haven't been too many soft courses; the 1988 running w/Great Communicator was on a bog; I think the Arlington and Lone Star BC races were on less than firm but not too many "softs" or "yielding".

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

I just don't like your smug attitude. Period. If the BC is so unimportant then wtf are you doing posting on a board primarily for American racing other than to troll?

Your insight is that of a fan yet you're acting like an insider. You aren't. You don't know what they're going to do. I was mocking you.

When have I said the BC was unimportant??

I have said that the Coolmore team weren't interested in sending DT to the Breeder's Cup, and that is true. Before the Arc when asked if DT would go to America the answer was no. Then it changed to if he won he wouldn't travel. It shows that coming here was a very last minute decision. Even if he didn't win there was only an outside chance he's come here.

No, i'm not an insider, but i do know that there is doubt over him running at this point in time. Aidan O'brien has publicly said that the horse doesn't like soft ground and they will try and avoid it whenever possible.

The ground will be on the soft side on Saturday.

No, i don't know what they are going to do, i was told by a friend who works for coolmore in the States that there is a doubt if the rain comes, whether she is 'in the know' i'm not sure, but those words had come from Dermot Ryan, and that has been backed up on our racing channel today.

I'm not saying he won't run, but there is a doubt over him doing so.