BC Day 2 Plays

[justindew]

I could not have been more wrong about the first three BC races on Friday, but still had a shot at a big day, being alive to Discreet Cat and Wanderin' Boy in the Pick 4. That's horse racing. Hopefully, one of my attempts to cash a big ticket will pay off on Saturday.

Juvenile Fillies

($100) Win A to the Croft

($240) $1 Pick 4:

Smarty Deb
Proud Spell
A to the Croft

with

War Pass
Pyro
Globalization
Old Man Buck
Tale of Ekati

with

Honey Ryder
Nashoba's Key
Argentina
Danzon

with

Midnight Lute
Idiot Proof
Benny the Bull
Greg's Gold


Juvenile Colts

$264 (.10) Superfecta

Globalization, Old Man Buck
with All
with All
with All

(Oddly, the computers at Rosecroft Raceway, where I made my bets, gave me all 13 horses, even though Dixie Chatter is already scratched and the field is down to 12. So I'm already getting a refund.)


F&M Turf

($100) Win Danzon


Sprint

No Bets


Mile

($20) Win Host

($84) Pick 4

All

with

Balance
Lady Joanne
Lear's Princess
Octave
Indian Vale
Unbridled Belle

with

Dylan Thomas

with

Street Sense


Distaff

($100) Win Octave


Turf

($10) Win Fri Guy (I know, I know.)


Classic

(yet-to-be-determined amount) Win Street Sense


Pick 6

($96)

Argentina, Danzon
Midnight Lute, Idiot Proof
Host, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Excellent Art
Balance, Octave
Dylan Thomas
Street Sense, Tiago

Feel free to laugh openly. I know I am really reaching with a few of these, like Host. But they way I see it, there aren't many days in horse racing when you can take $1,000 and possibly turn it into $50,000 or more with just a little luck.

Good luck everybody. Happy Breeders' Cup!

[miraja2]

I like Globalization a bit in the Juvy but that is a pretty agressive play with him as one of two on top of a big super.
I wouldn't want to place a $264 wager that depended on him or Old Man Buck in the top spot in that race.
I'm using Globalization and a couple of others underneath Tale of Ekati and Pyro in that one.

[Cannon Shell]

I give 8 horses a chance in the mile but Host is not one of them. What is so appealing about him?

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I give 8 horses a chance in the mile but Host is not one of them. What is so appealing about him?

I really wouldn't say he's "appealing". That's why I only put $20 on him, although I did use him in my Pick 6. Here's what I like, and like is a strong word:

-Grade 1 winner at the distance
-Winner over this track
-Solid closer
-Pletcher, who has to start winning on BC Day at some point
-30-1 or higher
-I don't like anyone else

[trifecta124]

I'm going 3 deep in each race.

Early Pick 4

Juvenile Fillies: Phantom Income, Irish Smoke, A To The Croft
Juvenile: War Pass, Kodiak Kowboy, Pyro
Filly & Mare Turf: Honey Ryder, Wait A While, Precious Kitten
Sprint: Midnight Lute, Attila's Storm, Commentator

Late Pick 4

Mile: After Market, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Silent Name
Distaff: Lady Joanne, Lear's Princess, Octave
Turf: Red Rocks, Better Talk Now, Dylan Thomas
Classic: Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, Diamond Stripes

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by justindew

I really wouldn't say he's "appealing". That's why I only put $20 on him, although I did use him in my Pick 6. Here's what I like, and like is a strong word:

-Grade 1 winner at the distance
-Winner over this track
-Solid closer
-Pletcher, who has to start winning on BC Day at some point
-30-1 or higher
-I don't like anyone else

I doubt if he actually goes off at 30/1. My guess would be he is more in the 15/1 - 20/1 range by post time.
I agree that his ability to turn on the kick late (which he did over this track, at this distance, earlier in the year) makes him a very live longshot, but I can't really get a feel for this race at all. That and my general inability to handicap turf races makes this a skip race for me.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by justindew

I really wouldn't say he's "appealing". That's why I only put $20 on him, although I did use him in my Pick 6. Here's what I like, and like is a strong word:

-Grade 1 winner at the distance
-Winner over this track
-Solid closer
-Pletcher, who has to start winning on BC Day at some point
-30-1 or higher
-I don't like anyone else

Would seem to be the only reason that I could agree on. Would be a major fluke but at least you will get good odds. I'm thinking 50-1 or more in a 14 horse field. Though i do like him more than Icy Atlantic and My Typhoon who will be overbet because of her stupid name.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I thought his race at Woodbine was a lot better than it looked. He was absolutely flying late. It was an odd trip. Mid pack, dropped back to last and then flying late. He's probably not good enough, but he'll be 30-1 minimum. I also thought it looked like speed was having a hard time there on the turf today. Host's best efforts have been when making one run and with Gomez up, i see that happening. It's a longshot, but I think he fits. Who is so scary in there?

It is not that anyone is scary but he may get shuffled back with the speed on the outside. Plus he is not really that good. I believe that his win over the track is rendered meaningless due to the obviously different condition of the course. I'm not trying to talk you off him but I have heard several people say they like this horse and i cant see it. I think the Euro, Jeremy , may be a play at 10-1 or higher. Not buying into Excellent Art from the outside.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I thought his race at Woodbine was a lot better than it looked. He was absolutely flying late. It was an odd trip. Mid pack, dropped back to last and then flying late. He's probably not good enough, but he'll be 30-1 minimum. I also thought it looked like speed was having a hard time there on the turf today. Host's best efforts have been when making one run and with Gomez up, i see that happening. It's a longshot, but I think he fits. Who is so scary in there?

You really think he will be 50-1? If he is anywhere close to that I will have to change my mind and play the race and bet on him.
I think when people see the way the course is playing and the way he ran there last time they will actually bet him down from his 30-1 ML because there isn't anybody else that wonderful in here. At 20-1, I don't like him at all. At 40-1, I think he is very interesting.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I like Globalization a bit in the Juvy but that is a pretty agressive play with him as one of two on top of a big super.
I wouldn't want to place a $264 wager that depended on him or Old Man Buck in the top spot in that race.
I'm using Globalization and a couple of others underneath Tale of Ekati and Pyro in that one.

If this bet hits, the return will be well into the thousands for a dime.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by justindew

If this bet hits, the return will be well into the thousands for a dime.

Well I suppose that is true, and looking at the bets you spelled out in this thread, you obviously have MUCH deeper pockets than I do.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Don't think he'll be 50-1, although he might. He might get lost in the betting. Even at 20-1 I have to make a win bet on him.

Damn, I though EVERYONE would laugh at me for my Host pick, not just Chuck and Andy (although Andy hasn't laughed yet, but he will). Maybe I should toss a few more bucks on him.

[Cannon Shell]

Dont forget in 14 horse fields money is spreadout hence the longer than usual odds. I think Remarkable News is really bred for a soft turf.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Well I suppose that is true, and looking at the bets you spelled out in this thread, you obviously have MUCH deeper pockets than I do.

Not necessarily. I haven't bet much at all since the Belmont Stakes. Just a few Pick 6s and some plays on Travers Day. Maybe a few other days here and there. Plus, the NFL has been good to me this year.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by justindew

Damn, I though EVERYONE would laugh at me for my Host pick, not just Chuck and Andy (although Andy hasn't laughed yet, but he will). Maybe I should toss a few more bucks on him.

Not laughing...just trying to figure out the reasoning why I have seen at least 2 posters here and three guys at Keeneland talking about or picking a horse that I expected no one to pick. I would laugh at George Washington though. And Fry Guy gets a chuckle.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Honestly on a firm turf I think he has no shot. But it is and will be a bog. Speed looked like it was tiring very bad on the turf today and Gomez is overly patient if anything. He has a shot.

I think speed tired on in the juvy because the pace was fast despite Trevors call. They went the second half slower than the 1st which is not like usual on turf.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Dont forget in 14 horse fields money is spreadout hence the longer than usual odds. I think Remarkable News is really bred for a soft turf.

He is a bit interesting.
In his last start he didn't look like the same horse that ran at Pimlico and CD this spring, but the manner in which he gave way down the stretch looked like the classic case of a horse just needing a race. He certainly could be a factor.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by miraja2

He is a bit interesting.
In his last start he didn't look like the same horse that ran at Pimlico and CD this spring, but the manner in which he gave way down the stretch looked like the classic case of a horse just needing a race. He certainly could be a factor.

I was actually just baiting because his breeding is totally obscure to all except Johan Santana and Hugo Chavez. I woul like him if you cut his post in half. Though if he leaves hard and other take back may be sitting third while not too wide on first turn. Impossibly tough race.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by justindew

Not necessarily. I haven't bet much at all since the Belmont Stakes. Just a few Pick 6s and some plays on Travers Day. Maybe a few other days here and there. Plus, the NFL has been good to me this year.

I really like Street Sense as well. But I am splitting the money I am betting on that race between a straight win bet on him, and an exacta box with him and Curlin.
Curlin still scares me.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Impossibly tough race.

Couldn't agree more.