11/1: AQUEDECT ($243k C/O)

[Kasept]

Aqueduct carries again with pool swelling to nearly $250,000... Wednesday inded tricky, and fun, and best success came in the 7th, the race that looked toughest on paper! $300+ trifecta scored to keep the day largely even, and it wouldn't have mattered who the stewards left up (Sensational Humor or Ground Hero) as both were covered. Couple of other good I.D.'s were made on the day, but P4/P6 plays missed.. Hope you did OK.

P6 Thursday a very difficult gauntlet...

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES..

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, .10 Super)

Treacherous start to sextet with well-matched group on the lawn.. Kelly's RISKY AGENDA appears to have slight edge, but early spread looks advisable..

Best Value: #4 Snow Kid 10-1: KMc got LDK bay from Mott; Moves up? 5th
Most Likely: #1 Risky Agenda 3-1: Kelly 4yo closed into slow pace.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Sentimental Union 7-2 WON
Other/Super: #9 SCR

.10 Super Play: Key 1 1st/2nd/3rd w/ 2-3-4-7 (1x4x3x2 = 24 x 3 = 720/10 = $7.20)


5th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f (P3, GS, .10 Super)

One Day Soon (#4, 3-1) comesoff layoff and may be vulnerable off spotty worktab.. Eligible if ready, but with several others more formful, will stand against in-race and on main P6 tick..

Best Value: #1 Appealing Speed 15-1: 5th
Most Likely: #8 Running Dog 5-1: Jacobson state bred arching forward.. 7th7th
Exotics Use: #6 Dynergy 12-1: Loves S. Ozone Park.. 4th
Other/Super: #5 Archie Boy 6-1: Started to show speed again last out.. 3rd


6th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 1m (P4, DD)

A collection of what-nots and never-will-bes.. Dreadful..

Best Value: #1a (POE) Tothelefttoleft 6-1 3rd
Most Likely: #5 Elixer 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Jump Commander 4-1 WON
Other/Super: #7 Winloc's Saint Ray 20-1 6th


7th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3)

Best Value: #9 Seeing Clearly 8-1: Morrison bay has held own in NY.. 6th
Most Likely: #2 Optimist Girl 7-2: Gets edge, but not by much.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Cori's Girl 5-1 2nd
Other/Super: #8 Classic Marilyn 12-1 WON

$1 Exacta (8-4) Paid $107.50
$1 Trifecta (8-4-2) Paid $369.00


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (DD)

Best Value: #5 SCR
Most Likely: #3 Bribon 2-1: Ribaudo red has look of sucker's single in '6'.. WON
Exotics Use: #7 Temecula Creek 7-2 4th
Other/Super: #2 Taint So 6-1 6th


9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (.10 Super)

Best Value: #10 Youbethecan 6-1: New to Dutrow; Lawn try was career best.. WON
Most Likely: #3 TURKISH VICTORY 3-1: "Ever been in a Turkish prison Danny?" 8th
Exotics Use: #4 American Cruiser 7-2: Toss off-turf try last time; Stretches out.. 9th
Other/Super: #2 Hot Table 5-1: Hard to exclude Mott-Zayat.. 5th
Longshot: #7 Mighty Thor 15-1: Barn has woken up calling on Herbie.. 4th

.10 Super Play: Key 3 1st/2nd with 2-4-7-9-10 (1x5x4x3 = 60 x 2 = 120/10 = $12.00)


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-4
5: 1-5-6-8
6: 1e
7: 2-4-9
8: 2-3-7
9: 3

2x4x1x3x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144


@$50 P4 Play

6: 1e-3-5
7: 2-4-9
8: 2-3-7
9: 3-10

3x3x3x2 = $54


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

Handful of important changes/scratches at AQU:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/AQU-changes.asp

NOTE: In the 7th, both AE 11 (Dr. Jess Jr.-20-1) and 1a (Fort Carillon-3-1) draw in..

AE 1 (Fogcutter-8-1) gets into the 9th with more changes possible there...

NO Superfecta in the 5th with the 2 & 9 out...

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by Kasept

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (.10 Super)

Best Value: #10 Youbethecan 6-1: New to Dutrow; Lawn try was career best..
Most Likely: #3 TURKISH VICTORY 3-1: "Ever been in a Turkish prison Danny?"
Exotics Use: #4 American Cruiser 7-2: Toss off-turf try last time; Stretches out..
Other/Super: #2 Hot Table 5-1: Hard to exclude Mott-Zayat..
Longshot: #7 Mighty Thor 15-1: Barn has woken up calling on Herbie..

.10 Super Play: Key 3 1st/2nd with 2-4-7-9-10 (1x5x4x3 = 60 x 2 = 120/10 = $12.00)

"Do you like movies about gladiators?"

picked a good week to quit gambing!

[pmacdaddy]

Good run at the pick4 Steve. Tough beat with Marilyn...

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

Good run at the pick4 Steve. Tough beat with Marilyn...

Tougher than you can imagine having Classic Marilyn as an include in the 7th but leaving her off the Quad..

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Tougher than you can imagine having Classic Marilyn as an include in the 7th but leaving her off the Quad..

Well Steve if your going to consciously keep the investment under 50 bucks these things are gonna happen. Andy is probably right on this subject as far as advocating spreading deeper on races you know are contentious and bumping the price past the half C note you impose on yourself.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Well Steve if your going to consciously keep the investment under 50 bucks these things are gonna happen. Andy is probably right on this subject as far as advocating spreading deeper on races you know are contentious and bumping the price past the half C note you impose on yourself.

This wasn't expense related and fell under the category of a structural botching. Went 3x3x3x2 for $54 because I just didn't trust Bribon in the 8th..