They Knew

[ArlJim78]

for this year, first time starters in maiden claiming races at AQU are 2 wins from 58 attempts, .0345 percent.

straight maidens are even worse where firsters are 2 for 93.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

for this year, first time starters in maiden claiming races at AQU are 2 wins from 58 attempts, .0345 percent.

straight maidens are even worse where firsters are 2 for 93.

Great Stats...Thanks

[blackthroatedwind]

Agreed Jim.....thanks.

Pretty interesting actually. It's counterintuative considering how weak so many of these maiden races have been. Good stuff.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Agreed Jim.....thanks.

Pretty interesting actually. It's counterintuative considering how weak so many of these maiden races have been. Good stuff.

the only explanation I can think of is that people that have promising young horses that they think have a shot at winning first out usually move them south for the winter? I don't know.
Also its not a huge sample, only two months.

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

the only explanation I can think of is that people that have promising young horses that they think have a shot at winning first out usually move them south for the winter? I don't know.
Also its not a huge sample, only two months.

Jim...any idea what a "normal" first time out win % is?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by GBBob

Jim...any idea what a "normal" first time out win % is?

I was just thinking the same thing.
for all tracks I have these numbers for the same period.

maiden claiming firsters 71/859, .0827%
msw firsters 57/775 .0735%

so it does show that the AQU inner numbers are far below the average.
interesting.

by contrast Tampa is doing much better with firsters.
maiden claiming firsters 18/141, .1277%
msw firsters 7/70, 10%

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

what perc of those winners were on co days..

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

what perc of those winners were on co days..

couldn't tell ya, I don't have a filter for that.

[blackthroatedwind]

One thing you have to keep in mind is how often they win as a percentage of the field. That may be a big factor in the Aqueduct numbers being low this time of year.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I was just thinking the same thing.
for all tracks I have these numbers for the same period.

maiden claiming firsters 71/859, .0827%
msw firsters 57/775 .0735%

so it does show that the AQU inner numbers are far below the average.
interesting.

by contrast Tampa is doing much better with firsters.
maiden claiming firsters 18/141, .1277%
msw firsters 7/70, 10%

It's been this way for years on the AQU Inner, but not as bad as this year.

A couple years ago, a friend who bets nothing but NYRA MSW/MCL races (and I thought I had problems) looked at 5 years of Inner maiden races.

He came up with FTS runners winning far below expected. I believe he used ratios of races won by FTS runners vs the percentage of total starters represented by the FTS.

He looked at MCLs and MSWs going both short and long. They all underperformed vs expected. I remember FTS going long in either class type was much worse and that MSWs short was better.

Jim, I'm curious about the Tampa stats... For example, the MCLs 18/141 ... 12.7%: Does this represent FTS runners winning 18 of 141 MCL races or does it mean that 18 out of 141 MCL FTS runners won races?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

It's been this way for years on the AQU Inner, but not as bad as this year.

A couple years ago, a friend who bets nothing but NYRA MSW/MCL races (and I thought I had problems) looked at 5 years of Inner maiden races.

He came up with FTS runners winning far below expected. I believe he used ratios of races won by FTS runners vs the percentage of total starters represented by the FTS.

He looked at MCLs and MSWs going both short and long. They all underperformed vs expected. I remember FTS going long in either class type was much worse and that MSWs short was better.

Jim, I'm curious about the Tampa stats... For example, the MCLs 18/141 ... 12.7%: Does this represent FTS runners winning 18 of 141 MCL races or does it mean that 18 out of 141 MCL FTS runners won races?

its runners not races. 181 first timers went to the gate, 18 won.

if we look at it by races then its
18/96 18.75% mcl FTS winners at Tampa
7/39 17.9% msw FTS winners at Tampa

and

2/61 3.3% mcl FTS at AQU
2/48 4.2% msw FTS at AQU

thats an incredible difference.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

its runners not races. 181 first timers went to the gate, 18 won.

if we look at it by races then its
18/96 18.75% mcl FTS winners at Tampa
7/39 17.9% msw FTS winners at Tampa

and

2/61 3.3% mcl FTS at AQU
2/48 4.2% msw FTS at AQU

thats an incredible difference.

AJ where you getting these numbers from, Bris?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

AJ where you getting these numbers from, Bris?

the data comes from bris datafiles that i've been collecting since the begginning of the year, Ive been using a software package to manipulate it and run queries.

to finish what I started on firsters, here are the results for RACES at various tracks this year. It looks like firsters are really ready to go this time of year at Tampa and Santa Anita, and not so much in NY.

Gulfstream
MCL 7/91, 7.7%
MSW 10/56, 17.8%

Tampa
MCL 18/96, 18.7%
MSW 7/39, 17.9

Philly
MCL 4/64, 6.2%
MSW 6/20, 30%

Laurel
MCL 6/57, 10.5%
MSW 3/15, 20%

Turfway
MCL 4/95, 4%
MSW 4/29, 13.8%

Fairgrounds
MCL 6/74, 8.1%
MSW 6/60, 10%

Oaklawn
MCL 8/49, 16.3%
MSW 3/25, 12%

Santa Anita
MCL 12/54, 22%
MSW 6/35, 17%

Aqueduct
MCL 2/61, 3.3%
MSW 2/48, 4%

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

good job jim ..thanks......

[fpsoxfan]

Great Stuff Arli. This could prove to be very helpful.