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  #1  
Old 03-30-2008, 09:53 AM
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Default Big Brown Derby Odds off of win
10-1.... Any thoughts as to overlay or underlay ?
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  #2  
Old 03-30-2008, 10:03 AM
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Right now I think that's overlayed, but who knows?
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Old 03-30-2008, 10:03 AM
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Where are these odds? That seems like a pretty big overlay. You'll be lucky if you get half that on Derby day.
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Old 03-30-2008, 10:05 AM
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Off that effort.....underlay no doubt. If War Pass comes up a clunker next week, Big Brown will be 2-1 or less.
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Old 03-30-2008, 10:08 AM
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Update

The number is on Bodog BUT I just noticed that the wager was closed so it probably was prior to yesterdays race... I'll repost when it opens but my thoughts are 4-1 or less
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  #6  
Old 03-30-2008, 10:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff
Off that effort.....underlay no doubt. If War Pass comes up a clunker next week, Big Brown will be 2-1 or less.
War Pass will probably come up HUGE next week ala Bellamy Road and set the table for heartbreak derby day.
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Old 03-30-2008, 10:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62
War Pass will probably come up HUGE next week ala Bellamy Road and set the table for heartbreak derby day.
You make a good point here. A super effort in the Wood could make for an interesting odds scenario going into the Derby.
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Old 03-30-2008, 10:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
You make a good point here. A super effort in the Wood could make for an interesting odds scenario going into the Derby.
Like I said...the War Pass vs. Big Brown showdown in the Derby, I'm looking forward to.....setting things up for someone like.......
Georgie Boy ???
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Old 03-30-2008, 10:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff
Like I said...the War Pass vs. Big Brown showdown in the Derby, I'm looking forward to.....setting things up for someone like.......
Georgie Boy ???
Georgie Boy? I doubt it.
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Old 03-30-2008, 11:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Georgie Boy? I doubt it.
Good as any in this group, fun to root for a horse with pedigree like that.
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Old 03-30-2008, 11:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62
10-1.... Any thoughts as to overlay or underlay ?
At 10/1 I would even play the horse....

Try more like 4/1 favorite, especially becuase they will connect him to the "Barbaro route"
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Old 03-30-2008, 11:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff
Good as any in this group, fun to root for a horse with pedigree like that.
106 beyer for Big Brown,,, that makes him that favorite in the Derby.

Pincay thinks Big Brown is the next Bellamy Road.
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  #13  
Old 03-30-2008, 11:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Georgie Boy? I doubt it.
I don't see anything exciting on the west coast.
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  #14  
Old 03-30-2008, 11:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff
Good as any in this group, fun to root for a horse with pedigree like that.
I'll be rooting for a horse in the Derby as well, but that doesn't mean I think he can actually win it. Hint hint:





All kidding aside, I didn't care for Georgie's last race when he didn't switch leads. If he fails to do that in the Derby, he'll have a hard time winning... running on the wrong lead like that can make a horse tired and that would be the last thing he needs in a 10 panel race. JMO of course.
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Old 03-30-2008, 11:15 AM
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just to say big brown is 3-1 fav now over here for the ky derby after last night..
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  #16  
Old 03-30-2008, 11:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Underlay? How so?

I think clunker or not by War Pass and Big Brown will be a significant favorite, assuming he makes the race. I'm thinking 5-2 or less.

That sounds about right.
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  #17  
Old 03-30-2008, 11:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62
War Pass will probably come up HUGE next week ala Bellamy Road and set the table for heartbreak derby day.
funny you say that, since i was thinking big brown was this years bellamy road!
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Old 03-30-2008, 11:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV
106 beyer for Big Brown,,, that makes him that favorite in the Derby.

Pincay thinks Big Brown is the next Bellamy Road.
isn't anyone concerned about big browns stretch run? he seems to want to run all over the thing. come derby day, something like that can get you killed.
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  #19  
Old 03-30-2008, 11:51 AM
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The performance was impressive, especially all the hype regarding the poor post. Elysium Fields was very disappointing, Tomcito ran a decent race off a lay off and Steve predicted a good run from Smooth Air.Lets see what happens after the Wood and which War Pass shows up, I could see a speed duel in the derby setting up nicely for El Gato Malo or Court Vision.
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  #20  
Old 03-30-2008, 11:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
isn't anyone concerned about big browns stretch run? he seems to want to run all over the thing. come derby day, something like that can get you killed.
I like how the horse couldn't make up his mind between the rail and the ambulance path.
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